Kim Muir 2018

[Bayoffreedom]

Katie Walsh on Sugar Baron... I assumed she'd be booked for Mall Dini....less likely he comes to this race now then?

I seem to remember reading in Hendo's blog that the Scottish NAtional was the target for Sugar BAron but he might take in the Kim Muir...

Would always prefer to back in the race I knew was the confirmed overall target...

Sugar Baron beaten a neck having jumped the last in 10th place - best bet of the meeting!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Katie Walsh on Sugar Baron... I assumed she'd be booked for Mall Dini....less likely he comes to this race now then?

I seem to remember reading in Hendo's blog that the Scottish NAtional was the target for Sugar BAron but he might take in the Kim Muir...

Would always prefer to back in the race I knew was the confirmed overall target...

Maybe Nina for Mall Dini? Assuming O'Connor on Pendra & Codd on Squouateur now.

 

[BigChaang]

Katie Walsh booked to ride Sugar Baron for Henderson.



6th in the race last season off a mark of 135 (jockey claiming 3). Will be running off 137 this time.
The jockey isn't enough to tempt me at 16/1 best price but anyone fancy him?

I have backed Sugar baron at 16-1 for this race , But t.b.h it was a pure guess.

 

[Kevloaf]

Sugar Baron beaten a neck having jumped the last in 10th place - best bet of the meeting!

Katie Walsh booked to ride Sugar Baron for Henderson.

6th in the race last season off a mark of 135 (jockey claiming 3). Will be running off 137 this time.
The jockey isn't enough to tempt me at 16/1 best price but anyone fancy him?

Katie Walsh is worth more than 3lbs from Mr J Newman?
Katie Walsh is worth more than 3 lbs from Mr H Hunt on that Cheltenham 2nd in November that BoF is talking about?

Shows a bit more intent than last year perhaps?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Patrick Mullins riding Mall Dini?

 

[Zipiter]

Patrick Mullins riding Mall Dini?

Its what i heard anyway..

 

[kinloch brae]

General Principle and Space Cadet. Has Gordon said anything about these two? I would like a few points before considering NRNB.

Fortunately, nothing lost with those two. Replaced with Vintage Clouds and Braqueur D'or. The latter could do with the ground drying. The front two in the market look shocking prices. Not as if they haven't been failed gambles before.

 

[mayo]

Patrick Mullins riding Mall Dini?

Apparently

 

[charlie]

Completely lost on me why Squouateur continues to get smashed into favouritism. I’d consider have to think hard backing him at 25/1 let alone 6/1

 

[Scooby91]

Completely lost on me why Squouateur continues to get smashed into favouritism. I’d consider have to think hard backing him at 25/1 let alone 6/1

I'm not on him but I wish I was at 10/1 or bigger..

You can write off his run last time. His run before was excellent. He has a very lenient mark. An excellent jockey. Was going very well last year. And they've done an excellent job getting back here of that mark. This is the day, and every other run he's had was to get him here, of this mark.

 

[Viking Flagship]

Completely lost on me why Squouateur continues to get smashed into favouritism. I’d consider have to think hard backing him at 25/1 let alone 6/1

I have to say Charlie I usually love taking on these kind of favourites but if I was a bookie I’d want Squouateur firmly onside. If you want to lay me that 25s (or even 16s) I’d happily have 2pts win with you! He was tanking in this race last year when coming down, having been aimed at the race for months, and I recall Elliott almost openly saying he thought he was REALLY well handicapped. If GE says a horse is well handicapped I’m inclined to believe him. He comes in this year on exactly the same mark and no doubt with this in mind again all season, and the run at Leopardstown over Christmas behind Anibale Fly was very eye catching. Last time out was just a warm up for this over far too short (classic GE). Potentially a slight question mark over his jumping but I really do think he has the potential to do to this race what Cause or Causes did a couple of years ago. I’m not saying he will, just that I wouldn’t be in the slightest bit surprised.

That said, I think he’s just the ‘right price’ so can’t justify getting stuck in (have him in a couple of doubles). I’m on Mall Dini at 33s so will be very much cheering for him!

 

[Kevloaf]

Patrick Mullins riding Mall Dini?

Its what i heard anyway..

That passed me by...? I'd prefer him to Katie Walsh. Mall Dini has a smashing chance. I can't remember who tipped him up here at 33/1 but well done, an excellent looking value bet

***went back to check, was Viking Flagship in the opening post.

So well done VF, best of luck.

 

[kinloch brae]

Squouateur losing sequence of 11, placed only twice. Never won over fences. Gambled on beaten favourite at the Festival twice - 9/4 and 5/1.

Mall Dini losing sequence of 9, beaten favourite four times. Also never won over fences.

Both haven't won any race for 2 years.

Seems a shame to have wasted 2 years just to get a handicap mark for a Kim Muir.

This is obviously one of the weaker races but you could hardly get a couple of less solid profiles for two favourites.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Squouateur losing sequence of 11, placed only twice. Never won over fences. Gambled on beaten favourite at the Festival twice - 9/4 and 5/1.

Mall Dini losing sequence of 9, beaten favourite four times. Also never won over fences.

Both haven't won any race for 2 years.

Seems a shame to have wasted 2 years just to get a handicap mark for a Kim Muir.

This is obviously one of the weaker races but you could hardly get a couple of less solid profiles for two favourites.

Squouateur is a massive bookies horse IMO, been hugely punted on, as you say KB, at the festival twice, and 2 poor performances, yes, he unseated last season but if you actually watch the race he was never coming into contention, he was a fair way back when that happened.

Not one I think I'll have on side.

I do think Mall Dini is a different story though, I don't think he was ever close enough and still finished a good 5th, with Patrick on board I'd be more confident.

I do definitely think there is better value around still though.

 

[Kevloaf]

Squouateur losing sequence of 11, placed only twice. Never won over fences. Gambled on beaten favourite at the Festival twice - 9/4 and 5/1.

Mall Dini losing sequence of 9, beaten favourite four times. Also never won over fences.

Both haven't won any race for 2 years.

Seems a shame to have wasted 2 years just to get a handicap mark for a Kim Muir.

This is obviously one of the weaker races but you could hardly get a couple of less solid profiles for two favourites.

HAve any of the stats pages got information on the number of wins a horse has in a season before winning a festival handicap?

I recall listening to someone say that the winner of the novice chase on day one hasn't ever won in the same season.... although from memory Hunt Ball won that, so I must have heard that wrong as he won loads that season!

 

[Viking Flagship]

That passed me by...? I'd prefer him to Katie Walsh. Mall Dini has a smashing chance. I can't remember who tipped him up here at 33/1 but well done, an excellent looking value bet

***went back to check, was Viking Flagship in the opening post.

So well done VF, best of luck.

Cheers Kev, means nothing if he doesn’t do the business but it all adds to the excitement and these kind of bets are the reason we keep plugging away with ante-post.

 

[Kevloaf]

Cheers Kev, means nothing if he doesn’t do the business but it all adds to the excitement and these kind of bets are the reason we keep plugging away with ante-post.

Two parts to ante post for me...

1. Finding the value (beiting the SP)

2. Having the winner - as long as 1 has been done!

 

[Kevloaf]

I've only got Mall Dini 33/1 in this now.

SUtton Manor NRNB isn't going and same for De Plotting Shed NRNB.


Just been back through and the only cases made that I haven't followed up on, have been Pendra and Sugar Baron... who I've been knocking (or at least highlightning concerns about)

However, I can't actually come up with very much myself that I fancy. I'm just avoiding the fav at 6/1 despite his claims.


What are people sitting on in this race? I might add The Young Master at 20/1 (25/1 in a place) but he's only well handicapped on his old form but can I really see him winning this? I backed him for the Grand National so I suppose I should...but I don''t at the moment

 

[Bayoffreedom]

What are people sitting on in this race? I might add The Young Master at 20/1 (25/1 in a place) but he's only well handicapped on his old form but can I really see him winning this? I backed him for the Grand National so I suppose I should...but I don''t at the moment

I have thought for some time that Phil's Magic has a big race in him;he needs five to come out to run in this. He is a very speculative choice but may well go with my gut if he gets in.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I have thought for some time that Phi's Magic has a big race in him;he needs five to come out to run in this. He is a very speculative choice but may well go with my gut if he gets in.

By my calculations TYM is already guaranteed a run, unless I've miscounted.

Neil Mulholland said he is looking a happier horse at the moment and that they have have him a wind op since his last run. He is very well treated if they can get him back to form.