Kim Muir 2018

[jonthehammer]

I’ve had Mall Dini down for this from the start so I hope that is correct.

 

[Birds Nest]

Wanted to look at this race as Squouateur came up on another thread...

2009 Character Building 9 11–12 Jamie Codd John Quinn
2010 Ballabriggs 9 11–12 Richard Harding Donald McCain, Jr.
2011 Junior 8 11-06 Jamie Codd David Pipe
2012 Sunnyhillboy 9 11-11 Alan Berry Jonjo O'Neill
2013 Same Difference 7 11-07 Ryan Hatch Nigel Twiston-Davies
2014 Spring Heeled 7 11-06 Robbie McNamara Jim Culloty
2015 The Package 12 11-04 Jamie Codd David Pipe
2016 Cause of Causes 8 11-09 Jamie Codd Gordon Elliott
2017 Domesday Book 7 11-04 Gina Andrews Stuart Edmunds

From that, nothing carrying a low weight has won in the last 10, so 'classier' the better?

Pipe has a ridiculous record recently, (gault last year) D/M Pipe trained four of the last 14 with The Package, Junior, Royal Predica and Maximise. Also Faasel has been second in both 2011 and 2010. Ran four in 2016 including Dr Harper fav and disappointing, Amigo 5th at 33s and Top Wood 25s 'disputing close second when fell 4 out'.

In 2017 he had Doctor Harper finish 7th, 14th and a PU too.

Broadway Buffalo (flagged up on page 1 by cpfcpatriot on page 1) is now 10 but looks to be the most likely candidate for him? 20/1 NRNB available... horse certainly stays and came 2nd to Cause of Causes over 4m at Cheltenham in 2015. 4th placed finish too as mentioned and Codd/Katie Walsh have both ridden him in the past.

He is still on my radar in a race that the fav is just too short to consider at this stage IMO

I seem to remember Broadway Buffalo was retired by pipe a couple of weeks ago, something about his old leg injury re occurring....

 

[cpfcpatriot]

I seem to remember Broadway Buffalo was retired by pipe a couple of weeks ago, something about his old leg injury re occurring....

Completely missed this.

Was wondering why he wasn’t entered today. Sad, I liked the horse, definitely had a big handicap in him pre-injury.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

According to Tom George he could be sending Wild West Wind here, could be interesting

 

[Quevega]

Pendra looks a solid option, based on previous festivals, likely to have O'connor on board and others near top of market could go elsewhere.
And Squat is no value and has had a few chances now.
16-1 Pendra isn't a steal but could see it going off shorter.

 

[Bayoffreedom]

I’ve had Mall Dini down for this from the start so I hope that is correct.

I think they may be saving him for a Beginner's Chase at Thurles in 2020 (where he'll probably bump into Squouateur!)

 

[Kevloaf]

Pendra looks a solid option, based on previous festivals, likely to have O'connor on board and others near top of market could go elsewhere.
And Squat is no value and has had a few chances now.
16-1 Pendra isn't a steal but could see it going off shorter.

I'd persoanlly be a little put off by....

No run since last years Kim Muir
In fact, just two runs since 2015.
STILL trained by Charlie Longsdon?

17th / 5th / 3rd / 2nd at Cheltenham festival as you highlighted but still some leap and those odds look plenty short to me. COuld well go off shorter though being over bet as a JP handicap "plot"

 

[jono]

Pendra looks a solid option, based on previous festivals, likely to have O'connor on board and others near top of market could go elsewhere.
And Squat is no value and has had a few chances now.
16-1 Pendra isn't a steal but could see it going off shorter.

You'll like this video on Pendra a few days ago with Charlie Longsdon then quevega :encouragement:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eRr6RcDYqf4" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Derek got off the horse last year and was gutted. They ommited the 3rd last and he said that cost us the race. Would have given him a natural breather and helped him get up the hill

He admits that it'll be tough to get him in better form than last year but they've had a clear run with him this year where as last year he had a month in the vets.

Agree that it looks very like O'Connor will ride again, with only Squouateur and Upswing in there for JP

Some might be put off by Longsdon's record at the festival (0/58) but that wouldn't be much of a factor for me.
10 years old however we saw similar in 2015 - what a top amateur (Codd) can do on an older horse with fantastic prior placed festival form (P24P3) with The Package.

Interesting that we could very well have the same horse and jockey combinations lining up again this year:

Squouateur (Codd)
Pendra (O'Connor)
Mall Dini (Walsh)

 

[Quevega]

It's no Plot horse. It's just got a solid chance.
It went off at 16s last year and was bigger in the morning, purely as it hadn't run for a year.
It probably should have won.
It's proved the lay off is unlikely to disadvantage it.
It's been trained for the race.
It's only had 11 chase starts.
I just think when race is finalised (assuming O'connor rides) the 16-1 may be as good as or better than available on day.
and that's a lot of it's

 

[Quevega]

yep I'd seen that Jono, thanks for posting,
wanted a price before entries but bet365 went into lockdown couple of days ago for the handicaps

 

[jono]

I'd persoanlly be a little put off by....

No run since last years Kim Muir
In fact, just two runs since 2015.
STILL trained by Charlie Longsdon?

17th / 5th / 3rd / 2nd at Cheltenham festival as you highlighted but still some leap and those odds look plenty short to me. COuld well go off shorter though being over bet as a JP handicap "plot"

Beaten 0.75L's in the same race last year with the same year break (with an excuse). His best form has generally been off long breaks too first time out:

5th Nov 2012 - 236 Days - 1/12
24th Oct 2013 - 225 Days - 1/7
28th Nov2014 - 221 Days - 4/8
10th Mar 2015 - 102 Days - 5/24
31st Oct 2015 - 235 Days - 1/15
9th Apr 2016 - 112 Days - 13/39
16th Mar 2017 - 341 Days - 2/24

Had a clear run so it's been the plan rather than a setback. I think it's very likely O'Connor rides again.
Could do again but also worth remembering he was off top weight that day too so it was an almighty effort. I doubt his mark will go down so he'll likely be top weight again but makes it all the more impressive.

Has a similar profile to The Package

 

[Kevloaf]

Beaten 0.75L's in the same race last year with the same year break (with an excuse). His best form has generally been off long breaks too first time out:

5th Nov 2012 - 236 Days - 1/12
24th Oct 2013 - 225 Days - 1/7
28th Nov2014 - 221 Days - 4/8
10th Mar 2015 - 102 Days - 5/24
31st Oct 2015 - 235 Days - 1/15
9th Apr 2016 - 112 Days - 13/39
16th Mar 2017 - 341 Days - 2/24

Had a clear run so it's been the plan rather than a setback. I think it's very likely O'Connor rides again.
Could do again but also worth remembering he was off top weight that day too so it was an almighty effort. I doubt his mark will go down so he'll likely be top weight again but makes it all the more impressive.

Has a similar profile to The Package

I laughed when they kept talking about the great festival record. 5th in the Ultima isn't placing? and we have to put a line through one as well.... So he has a 50% strike rate... . Nothing to sniff at clearly, but that isn't "great"!!!

4 attempts and 0 times getting his head infront? That is a 0% win record. Trainer 0/58 you might not see as negative but 20/1 best price does not seem to reflect that.

O'Connor would be a positive, obviously. Won't be lower in the weights and regardless of his record fresh, how many horses have won a festival race on there first run on the season?

I'm not a stats man, but if a 10yo has won a festival handicap race on first run of the season off top weight than they were beaten last year I'd be staggered.

If he was a 50/1 shot I'd back him. 16s NRNB or 20s is short with the amount of negatives anyone can find?



Certainly would want more than the 4 places too if 5th is all of a sudden worth the same as a 2nd

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Beaten 0.75L's in the same race last year with the same year break (with an excuse). His best form has generally been off long breaks too first time out:

5th Nov 2012 - 236 Days - 1/12
24th Oct 2013 - 225 Days - 1/7
28th Nov2014 - 221 Days - 4/8
10th Mar 2015 - 102 Days - 5/24
31st Oct 2015 - 235 Days - 1/15
9th Apr 2016 - 112 Days - 13/39
16th Mar 2017 - 341 Days - 2/24

Had a clear run so it's been the plan rather than a setback. I think it's very likely O'Connor rides again.
Could do again but also worth remembering he was off top weight that day too so it was an almighty effort. I doubt his mark will go down so he'll likely be top weight again but makes it all the more impressive.

Has a similar profile to The Package

It's amazing how you brush over horses without a glance, and admittedly, until tonight I hadn't even considered Pendra, BUT, there is clear evidence he is targeted at the festival, his Cheltenham form is very fair to say the least, and as has been noted he has ran well on numerous occasions when fresh.

Thanks for pointing this one out Quevega, will certainly keep an eye on Pendra now as it's not a race I have much of an interest in yet.

 

[Bayoffreedom]

I suspect that JP must have had a quiet word with the handicapper. Pendra was raised 3 lbs to 148 after his run last year (Premier Bond who was 3rd went up by 2lbs). Now, not having run since, he's back down to 145 which allows him to run in this race.

 

[jono]

4 attempts and 0 times getting his head infront? That is a 0% win record. Trainer 0/58 you might not see as negative but 20/1 best price does not seem to reflect that.

2013 - Coral Cup - His first go at the course and festival is very much a write off.
2014 - Close Brothers - Upsides the winner and every chance but a bad jump at the last cost him. Stayed on for 3rd.
2015 - Ultima - Obviously 5th won't get you any money and of course doesn't count for a place but that's still a solid festival run
2017 - Kim Muir - Narrowly beaten having led over the last and however much weight you give it had an excuse.

On paper it's a 0% win record but there's been some narrow margins in 2 of those races so i'm happy to call it a good festival record for sure.

Watching back his runs you could argue he maybe doesn't quite get up the hill (wandered around in the Ultima and worn down last year) but last year off top weight (likely to run off the same weight, at least won't be higher) was a run that suggested that the least and the older he gets, particularly if the National is again the aim he should stay better.

I'm obviously not going to persuade you otherwise but i'm on for 20/1. We know he is well and will run in the race so bar a new setback between now and then i'm happy to go for the bigger price without NRNB

 

[Quevega]

I like it's chances I must say.
And Squatouer ain't no causes (arazi like on the home turn and hill) either and will need luck in running if ridden as usual.
on past history the other jockeys will struggle as Derek and Jamie often fight out the finish.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'd say we don't know he is well until we see him appear this season jono .... and i know we agree on most things ... this is a rare disagreement and history suggests you have an edge in the handicaps..... but I'm happy to take this selection on.




All too easy knocking a selection though, so I'll try find what I consider a better bet at a similar/ better price.

Not right now though. I need to sober up :highly_amused:

 

[jono]

I'd say we don't know he is well until we see him appear this season jono .... and i know we agree on most things ... this is a rare disagreement and history suggests you have an edge in the handicaps..... but I'm happy to take this selection on

Rare indeed...not sure i'd say I have any edge in the handicaps though!

Another I like for this race - Sutton Manor 33/1 (Betfair) or 25/1 NRNB

I think there's no doubt Squouateur is Elliott's first choice in the race and will in all likelihood have Jamie Codd onboard again. He was making headway under a typical hold up ride by Codd in this last year and there probably is a big race in him but i'm happy to look elsewhere at the prices and his stablemate is quite appealing...

At the start of the year Elliott had this to say:

He was a good horse last year for us over hurdles and i'd say he'll be a stayer over fences

Which is pretty obvious considering he was a point to pointer and had 7 runs over hurdles at 3 miles last season. He's been pitched into good company this year in specifically his first 3 runs:

2m6 Beginners Chase - 4th to Presenting Percy (Mall Dini in 5th)
2m4 Beginners Chase - 3rd to Monalee and Any Second Now
2m5 Beginners Chase - 2nd to The Storyteller
2m3 Beginners Chase - 1st beating Burgas
2m5 Handicap Chase - 14th well beaten

He's run some solid races so far this season without setting the world alight. He is often under pressure. That has particularly looked the case over the shorter tips this year when the pace quickens. I think he's crying out for a 3 miles plus and i'm drawn to Elliott's comments at the start of the year and the fact he hasn't yet once run over 3 miles this year which I think will bring out most improvement.

Over hurdles he ran off a career high of 142 in the Pertemps last season running well finishing 5th ( yes I know Kev that is not placing ). Presenting Percy, Barney Dwan and Jury Duty all finished ahead of him that day. He got swallowed up round the home turn and looked to drop right out of it but he actually stayed well again and managed to keep 5th. He then came third in a big field handicap at Fairyhouse and 5th in another big handicap at Punchestown to finish the season off a hurdles mark of 137.

His last run over fences was off 138 and with his finishing position of 14th, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him dropped down a few more pounds. After the race and in the recent quotes from Elliott he says:

Was totally out of sorts at Leopardstown early this month with a performance I hope we can draw a line through. His run in last year's Pertemps was pleasing but he is a different horse this season and heads to the Festival stronger. From his entries; in the National Hunt Chase, the RSA Chase and the JLT Novices Chase and may also get an entry in the Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase but we'll make a decision for him closer to the time.

He's always been considered a staying chaser in the making (surprise surprise in the silks). The remarks on him being a different horse this year and the fact we haven't seen him over his ideal conditions - 3 miles over fences means I think there's room to improve with what will likely be a mark close to or the same as his hurdles mark of 137. It would be a nice mark for this race, likely in the bottom half of the weights but enough to ensure he gets in.

And of course we have a race which is so often dependant on the jockey bookings. Codd rode him in 1 run this season but Lisa O'Neill was the jockey in the Pertemps last season, along with 2 other runs. She proved her talent in staying chasers in last year's National Hunt Chase with a remarkable winning ride on Tiger Roll and has 2 Kerry Nationals to her name as well. I'd be confident if he lines up in this race she would be the jockey onboard with previous history and being an Elliott/Gigginstown horse.

It's not certain he comes here but Elliott in the RP this week had this brief mention on the horse:

If he was to run, i'd say he'll run in the Kim Muir

So it would appear to be the plan...

- likely target
- course and festival form (5th in the Pertemps)
- consistent form in staying handicaps (34215350)
- likelihood and history of one of the better jockeys onboard
- room to improve on his current mark (held back over best trip and conditions)

25/1 NRNB taken

 

[Kevloaf]

That's a fantastic case jono. Really, really good.

I obviously will be adding.

 

[Kevloaf]

The Derek OConnor quote about wanting to win the Kim Muir must be a positive for Pendra too ...

Kim Muir all yours guys haha