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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

billymag said:
Ran to 169RPR on soft ground and came third only beaten 3 lengths last year, he needs good ground to be seen at his best, I thought 20/1 looked a rock solid ew bet especially with superstar 2 miler potentially being stepped up, he will be 8 come March so could be about to peak.
But hearing Kingy talk Im pretty concerned that they might step him up, if they kept him at 2 miles and it was decent ground though, I think it would be an excellent selection at that price, nothing not to like?
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I think horses of the quality of Sceau Royal, with an RPR of 169, a Cheltenham course winner and close-up placed at the last Festival behind an older more experienced horse are more than capable of winning at the Cheltenham Festival.

We often think that horses have to be as good as the best previous performers to be considered (ante post) to be able to win. But that is not always true. The record books of the Champion Chase, Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup, Ryanair Chase etc are littered with a mixture of exceptional champions, high-class winners, average winners and below average winners. Just like the 2000 Guineas, Derby etc.

I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Sceau Royal at larger odds on a win or each-way bet in the Champion Chase.

Thank goodness for differences of opinion that make each betting market.

The Champion Chase could have some real depth to it this year if the novices quoted high up in the CC market step forward in their second year, and then target this race. If they don’t prove as good as we may think then 5/1 Altior and 20/1 Sceau Royal may look massive if they line up again in a small field race.
 
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Vautour said:
Pretty pleased with the current state of my book. Playing only multiples worked very well for me last year, particularly when perming races which I shall look to do to a degree until Christmas and then a lot more post Christmas. Obviously I am screwed at the moment if Paisley Park doesn't win but will start adding more for the Stayers later in the year and perm with other selections already made. I know a lot don't like this approach but I am looking to make significant amounts, not 10 - 30% ROI. However, I think at this stage Paisley Park and Tiger Roll have the strongest chance of winning at the festival of any horse in training so very happy with the below.

Watched back a fair bit of the festival today and starting to get very sweet on Minella Indo for the RSA and Klassical Dream for the Champion. Had forgotten how hard Minella Indo pulled through the Albert Bartlett and his strength up the straight at Punchestown to beat Allaho.

450pts Paisley Park (5) Topofthegame (14)
510pts Paisley Park (5) Santini (16)
450 pts Paisley Park (5) Envoi Allen (14)
510pts Paisley Park (4) Delta Work (33)
112 pts Paisley Park (4) Altior (14)
510pts Paisley Park (4) Samcro (33)
150 pts Paisley Park (4) Presenting Percy (14)
250pts Paisley Park (4) Lostintranslation (33)
150pts Paisley Park (7/2) Princess Vega (33)


Points obviously relate to return not stake!
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Like your plans Vautour, particularly using Paisley Park to boost prices on horses like Top of the Game, Delta Work, Envoi Allen, Lostintranslation etc, using small stakes.

I use this technique regularly, but instead of an ante post boost on a horse such as Paisley Park, I choose a horse running this weekend, together with antepost bets. Yesterday I got a win at 11/2 on Sapa Inca in the Shergar Cup. But I also backed him to smaller stakes with antepost bets on Logician (St Leger at 10/1) and Shantou Flyer (Foxhunters @ 14/1).

The Sapa Inca Win has now converted the doubles with Logician and Shantou Flyer into higher stakes win single bets on Logician and Shantou Flyer, and also a double bet on them.

I found this route gave me something to bet on weekends, some lose of course but it’s only small stakes, but for those that win I have have larger singles and doubles rolling on to my Cheltenham, St Leger bets.
 
Hamptonfox said:
Like your plans Vautour, particularly using Paisley Park to boost prices on horses like Top of the Game, Delta Work, Envoi Allen, Lostintranslation etc, using small stakes.

I use this technique regularly, but instead of an ante post boost on a horse such as Paisley Park, I choose a horse running this weekend, together with antepost bets. Yesterday I got a win at 11/2 on Sapa Inca in the Shergar Cup. But I also backed him to smaller stakes with antepost bets on Logician (St Leger at 10/1) and Shantou Flyer (Foxhunters @ 14/1).

The Sapa Inca Win has now converted the doubles with Logician and Shantou Flyer into higher stakes win single bets on Logician and Shantou Flyer, and also a double bet on them.

I found this route gave me something to bet on weekends, some lose of course but it’s only small stakes, but for those that win I have have larger singles and doubles rolling on to my Cheltenham, St Leger bets.
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I do the same Hamptonfox, though got burned last week on Band of Outlaws. My best return last year was from Apples Jade/Le Richebourg and Min from the Dublin Racing Festival rolling on to Al Dancer in the Betfair and Altior/Tiger Roll at Cheltenham (Betfair moving cost me 350 additional points!). Really like adding a few short priced favs during national hunt season as for me they tend to win more regularly and easily than flat horses. You can be in a vety good position come Cheltenham with little outlay.
 
Vautour said:
Pretty pleased with the current state of my book. Playing only multiples worked very well for me last year, particularly when perming races which I shall look to do to a degree until Christmas and then a lot more post Christmas. Obviously I am screwed at the moment if Paisley Park doesn't win but will start adding more for the Stayers later in the year and perm with other selections already made. I know a lot don't like this approach but I am looking to make significant amounts, not 10 - 30% ROI. However, I think at this stage Paisley Park and Tiger Roll have the strongest chance of winning at the festival of any horse in training so very happy with the below.

Watched back a fair bit of the festival today and starting to get very sweet on Minella Indo for the RSA and Klassical Dream for the Champion. Had forgotten how hard Minella Indo pulled through the Albert Bartlett and his strength up the straight at Punchestown to beat Allaho.

450pts Paisley Park (5) Topofthegame (14)
510pts Paisley Park (5) Santini (16)
450 pts Paisley Park (5) Envoi Allen (14)
510pts Paisley Park (4) Delta Work (33)
112 pts Paisley Park (4) Altior (14)
510pts Paisley Park (4) Samcro (33)
150 pts Paisley Park (4) Presenting Percy (14)
250pts Paisley Park (4) Lostintranslation (33)
150pts Paisley Park (7/2) Princess Vega (33)
22pts Klassical Dream Envoi Allen


750pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (14) Topofthegame (10)
900pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (14) Santini (16)
240pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Presenting Percy (16)
60pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Presenting Percy (16)
280pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Al Boum Photo (7)
160pts Paisley Park Altior Klassical Dream
60pts Paisley Park Altior Klassical Dream
750pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (12) Min (12)
400pts Paisley Park (3) Envoi Allen (10) Defi Du Seuil (8)
60pts Paisley Park (5/2) Tiger Roll (13/8) Benie Des Dieux (6)
240pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Altior (3)
530pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Altior (3)
225pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Draconien (40)
340pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Minella Indo (12) Princess Vega (5/4 - Won but BOG of 2 so payout will be significantly bigger)
565pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Next Destination (20) Dlauro (2 - Won)
115pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Kemboy (6)
250pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Klassical Dream (5) Victory Day (15/8 - Won)


50000pts Paisley Park (5) Malone Road (20) Envoi Allen (14) Topofthegame (14)
25000pts Paisley Park (4) Envoi Allen (16) Malone Road (16) Topofthegame (14)
140pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Klassical Dream (5) Envoi Allen (10)

Points obviously relate to return not stake!
Click to expand...

I bet you're an optimist Vautour ?
Love the pts return calculation being paramount.
 
Vautour said:
Pretty pleased with the current state of my book. Playing only multiples worked very well for me last year, particularly when perming races which I shall look to do to a degree until Christmas and then a lot more post Christmas. Obviously I am screwed at the moment if Paisley Park doesn't win but will start adding more for the Stayers later in the year and perm with other selections already made. I know a lot don't like this approach but I am looking to make significant amounts, not 10 - 30% ROI. However, I think at this stage Paisley Park and Tiger Roll have the strongest chance of winning at the festival of any horse in training so very happy with the below.

Watched back a fair bit of the festival today and starting to get very sweet on Minella Indo for the RSA and Klassical Dream for the Champion. Had forgotten how hard Minella Indo pulled through the Albert Bartlett and his strength up the straight at Punchestown to beat Allaho.

450pts Paisley Park (5) Topofthegame (14)
510pts Paisley Park (5) Santini (16)
450 pts Paisley Park (5) Envoi Allen (14)
510pts Paisley Park (4) Delta Work (33)
112 pts Paisley Park (4) Altior (14)
510pts Paisley Park (4) Samcro (33)
150 pts Paisley Park (4) Presenting Percy (14)
250pts Paisley Park (4) Lostintranslation (33)
150pts Paisley Park (7/2) Princess Vega (33)
22pts Klassical Dream Envoi Allen


750pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (14) Topofthegame (10)
900pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (14) Santini (16)
240pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Presenting Percy (16)
60pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Presenting Percy (16)
280pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Al Boum Photo (7)
160pts Paisley Park Altior Klassical Dream
60pts Paisley Park Altior Klassical Dream
750pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (12) Min (12)
400pts Paisley Park (3) Envoi Allen (10) Defi Du Seuil (8)
60pts Paisley Park (5/2) Tiger Roll (13/8) Benie Des Dieux (6)
240pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Altior (3)
530pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Altior (3)
225pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Draconien (40)
340pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Minella Indo (12) Princess Vega (5/4 - Won but BOG of 2 so payout will be significantly bigger)
565pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Next Destination (20) Dlauro (2 - Won)
115pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Kemboy (6)
250pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Klassical Dream (5) Victory Day (15/8 - Won)


50000pts Paisley Park (5) Malone Road (20) Envoi Allen (14) Topofthegame (14)
25000pts Paisley Park (4) Envoi Allen (16) Malone Road (16) Topofthegame (14)
140pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Klassical Dream (5) Envoi Allen (10)

Points obviously relate to return not stake!
Click to expand...

How many pts have you staked so far for the above in total?

I'm always interested in how people approach the 'life changing' bets as a strategy.
 
Vautour do you not do any singles at all?
I like a good double or Yankee etc for Cheltenham but wouldn’t base my entire festival on them.
I’ve had enough non runners over the years to know not to put all my eggs in one basket so although I agree paisley park is banker material at this stage, what happens if he gets injured?
 
Kautostar said:
Vautour do you not do any singles at all?
I like a good double or Yankee etc for Cheltenham but wouldn’t base my entire festival on them.
I’ve had enough non runners over the years to know not to put all my eggs in one basket so although I agree paisley park is banker material at this stage, what happens if he gets injured?
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That would be my worry.
 
Hamptonfox said:
I use this technique regularly, but instead of an ante post boost on a horse such as Paisley Park, I choose a horse running this weekend, together with antepost bets. Yesterday I got a win at 11/2 on Sapa Inca in the Shergar Cup. But I also backed him to smaller stakes with antepost bets on Logician (St Leger at 10/1) and Shantou Flyer (Foxhunters @ 14/1).

The Sapa Inca Win has now converted the doubles with Logician and Shantou Flyer into higher stakes win single bets on Logician and Shantou Flyer, and also a double bet on them.

I found this route gave me something to bet on weekends, some lose of course but it’s only small stakes, but for those that win I have have larger singles and doubles rolling on to my Cheltenham, St Leger bets.
Click to expand...

I do this as well. Usually pick a couple of ante post horses and combine them with my weekend horses or football bets. Already got some nice bets running on to Klassical Dream in the Champion Hurdle
 
Kautostar said:
Couldn’t have sceau royal on my mind for anything at Cheltenham. Will win the odd race over the season no doubt but simply isn’t good enough to win a champion chase or Ryanair
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I thought he ran a good race in march , Only 8 y/o next march , If and it's a big if , Altior steps up,.
would have to have a shout for me .So hopefully S.R. doesn't get stepped up.
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
I do this as well. Usually pick a couple of ante post horses and combine them with my weekend horses or football bets. Already got some nice bets running on to Klassical Dream in the Champion Hurdle
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I guess I’m in the minority then but this game is all about opinions. Good luck if you’re a backer but he’s not for me
 
Kautostar said:
I guess I’m in the minority then but this game is all about opinions. Good luck if you’re a backer but he’s not for me
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What are you in the minority with? Are you against Klassical Dream in the champion?
 
Kautostar said:
I guess I’m in the minority then but this game is all about opinions. Good luck if you’re a backer but he’s not for me
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Quite right Kautostar, good job we don't all agree with every selection / opinion , be pretty boring then...
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
What are you in the minority with? Are you against Klassical Dream in the champion?
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Sorry replied with the wrong quote, multitasking isn’t my strong point. I was on about SR. I’m very much in favour of Klassical dream and have a few nice bets on him already
 
With Vautour, Faugheen and I all having the same plan to boost Festival bets, by backing horses during the season doubled (or trebled) with our Festival fancies to small stakes, then it would be good to hear of any of these future successful mid-season wins that sets up bigger payouts on our Festival fancies.

Be good to have one or two getting the ball rolling on this next weekend, and then into the York Ebor Meeting.

Good luck all.
 
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Kautostar said:
Sorry replied with the wrong quote, multitasking isn’t my strong point. I was on about SR. I’m very much in favour of Klassical dream and have a few nice bets on him already
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No problem - I'm easily confused. :highly_amused:
 
Do you guys record the accas that you put on where the first bet loses, seems like a pretty high risk strategy. Be interesting if you could keep a total of your loses so we can see how effective the technique is.
 
It's a tactic i'm using more this season (horses rolling onto the Festival). Has worked well in very limited examples over the last few seasons (Might Bite in the King George 2017 rolling on, Min and Envoi Allen DRF 2019 rolling on)

I'm keeping tabs on the losing bets so they just get factored in as losses. So far I've done:

Ongoing
Delta Work (GC) - Punchestown double
Gypsy Island (MN) - Punchestown double
Minella Indo (RSA) - Punchestown double and Punchestown double with Gypsy Island
Lostintranslation (GC) - Enable KG double
Santini (Ladbroke) - Enable KG double
Topofthegame (Ladbroke) - Enable KG double

Future
Santini - Ladbroke / GC double
Topofthegame - Ladbroke / GC double

Lost
Commander of Fleet (any) - Punchestown double
Carefully Selected (any) - Punchestown double
Allaho (any) - Punchestown double
Lostintranslation (GC) - Punchestown double with Defi du Seuil

The Ladbroke for either Santini or Topofthegame (very hard to split the pair) is the stand out focus for me at the moment.
However it's definitely one where I won't be too reliant on one horse / outcome though. Whether that's bets rolling on through the season or as Festival multiples.
 
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