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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

Kautostar said:
I quite like melon for fences personally, he looks built for the job. His Cheltenham record is good and will be one of the highest rated hurdlers going chasing this season. Think he’ll be a big player in the arkle/jlt
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quevega said:
Melon will need to improve a lot for a fence as his form outside of cheltenham is a good stone or so lower.
So I personally think there's every chance that he'll still end up in the stayers, although this may also require Willie having a couple of other live chances in the Champion.
In any case, the current odds don't look tempting. I would want 33's or bigger to take this chance, so will wait and see how his try at fences goes. They definitely need to use a bit of imagination for this horse and possibly consider coming over here once or twice before cheltenham to.
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Melon is a funny one. Those 3 runner up spots at the festival are basically the only reason his stock is as high as he is. Outside of those runs which are by far his best - he's become somewhat of a liability. After 14 runs he only has 2 wins to his name - a Maiden Hurdle and a grade 2. There's enough based off his 3 Cheltenham runs to suggest whatever happens he could and may well figure wherever he runs. Maybe fences just might be the thing that makes him click and turn him into a horse who not even wins but runs as his short odds have suggested he should. I'd be so anti Melon for any antepost bet though. I said plenty last year over hurdles and the same applies for me going chasing. Don't get involved until much closer to the time as he will get turned over at least once over the season. For that reason I can see your angle with the Stayers Q. I remember Mullins suggesting it loosely as a bit of a wildcard before the festival last year. That said he was still way too keen at the back end of last season once again and gave no real optimism for me that he'd be effective over 3 miles.

quevega said:
I think the Mares would be the number one target as it stands for BDD, and expect Mullins to come out and say this in the Autumn. Although I can fully see the temptation for stayers, I think this race would need to soften up a little for this to be a serious option.
Laurina may be the key to this, as she could go in any direction, in terms of potential or not, fences or hurdles, and trip, except staying at 2 miles maybe. She didn't really have a season last year and essentially had one 'bad run' or maybe that's how good she is ? Seemed to possibly be disadvantaged in the champion with going the extreme pace in the first half mile.
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On Laurina - I think for now Laurina just has to be taken on going forward doesn't she in any race outside Mares only? The fact she is favourite in the Arkle, JLT and even third fav in the RSA is bonkers. I'm much more inclined to take that view going into the season and think she has lots to prove rather than thinking she had a bad run at the festival. Mullins has constantly downplayed the hype on her. Positive yes but no where near the levels the markets suggest. Too much surely made of the Mares Novice win and the owners push towards the Champion Hurdle. No doubt she'll take everything apart this season now i've said this! :highly_amused:
One thing with both Benie and Laurina - if they both run stay over hurdles then the Mares and Stayers paths will intersect quite a bit with the same races often being a good prep for either and I wouldn't be surprised to see both connections keep there options open.
Can you see them running against eachother in the Mares?
 
I think it will likely depend on how good Laurina actually is. For me she still has it all to prove in graded company and unless she is top drawer I could see BDD running against her in the Mares if Laurina sticks to Hurdles. One thing I am fairly confident on is BDD is top drawer and after backing her Any Race before her win in France I'll be topping up when and if it becomes clearer which route she will be taking. Have also included her in a large number of multis with 365 both for the Mares and Stayers
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Thought's on Benie Des Dieux for the Stayers?
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I love the Mare. I always have loved the mare. Had 16s any race for her win in 2018.

Last year she was my biggest bet of the entire year. Her fall at the last was the single most gutting moment I’ve had betting. Especially being stood at the last with my mate who’d also lumped on her antepost.

I think she’s win both the Mares or the Stayers. I just think she’s utterly utterly brilliant. Any race - she’d be the one lump bet at this stage for me yet again.
 
Thanks chaps, the quotes and opinions lead to me believe BDD goes Stayers, which opens up Laurina for the Mares.

Willie talks a lot about a Mares Chase option at Cheltenham because he doesn't seem to like to run his Mares against the boys over fences, and his argument was further re-inforced when Pravalaguna, a rare Mare to race against the boys at Cheltenham for him, finished last of the finishers in the JLT, 40 lengths behind her nearest rival and some 79 lengths off of the winner. He talks about Laurina going over fences but he won't run her against the boys, so the Mares Hurdle seems the only logical option.

After Benie Des Dieux's Auteuil win I could not see any reason not to go for the Stayers either.

So pretty much what Jono has said a page earlier :highly_amused:
 
Will there be as much 'internal' pressure (Ruby Walsh pressure) to split up Laurina and Benie Des Dieux this year?

Laurina and Benie Des Dieux could well end up in the same race...



The combination double will probably make its way into my ante post plans though :highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
Will there be as much 'internal' pressure (Ruby Walsh pressure) to split up Laurina and Benie Des Dieux this year?

Laurina and Benie Des Dieux could well end up in the same race...



The combination double will probably make its way into my ante post plans though :highly_amused:
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You mean Paul Townsend pressure.. :highly_amused:
 
Does anyone think Sire Du Berlais could be the type for the 4-miler.

Wouldn’t be a bet at this early stage but I’d be fascinated to see him priced up.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
You mean Paul Townsend pressure.. :highly_amused:
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No I meant, Ruby when he was wanting the rides would have had more influence than Paul probably did/does/will?

It doesn't read properly haha
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Does anyone think Sire Du Berlais could be the type for the 4-miler.

Wouldn’t be a bet at this early stage but I’d be fascinated to see him priced up.
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If I knew he'd end up in a race over fences at the festival I'd probably guess Ultima or Kim Muir before the 4 miler and I doubt the bookies will be generous with a price for him in any race :(
 
Bets so far:

Any Race:
10pt win Envoi Allen 8/1
1pt win Birchdale 20/1
1pt win Shishkin 27/1
4pt win Rathhil 22/1

Arkle
2pt win Rathhill 33/1

RSA
2pt win Dickie Diver

Champ Chase
2pt ew Sceua Royal 20/1 (concerned that they are thinking about stepping him up)

JLT
2pt win Birchdale 33/1

Mares Novice
1pt win The Glancing Queen
 
I've had a bet on Sceau Royal - Ch. Chs, myself Billymag ,.
hadn't read or heard about the stepping up in trip , is that from your stable tour ??.
 
Yes Kingy said that they might look to step in up if he gets beat at 2 miles.
 
Couldn’t have sceau royal on my mind for anything at Cheltenham. Will win the odd race over the season no doubt but simply isn’t good enough to win a champion chase or Ryanair
 
Anyone know anything about a French horse called fanion d'estruval? Just noticed it in the antepost markets for the arkle and jlt and I looked it up and see he's races 3 times in France
 
What's peoples thoughts on Min for the Ryan Air....I see he's 12/1 with one of the firms.
I know they have CPS for the champion chase but even if he doesn't make it there, will they switch Min again knowing he ran so poorly in it they year before.....im not sure they would but who knows with mullins
 
sprintersacren said:
What's peoples thoughts on Min for the Ryan Air....I see he's 12/1 with one of the firms.
I know they have CPS for the champion chase but even if he doesn't make it there, will they switch Min again knowing he ran so poorly in it they year before.....im not sure they would but who knows with mullins
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I really like him for it, in principle.

I wouldn't get jiggy about 12/1 now though...
 
Pretty pleased with the current state of my book. Playing only multiples worked very well for me last year, particularly when perming races which I shall look to do to a degree until Christmas and then a lot more post Christmas. Obviously I am screwed at the moment if Paisley Park doesn't win but will start adding more for the Stayers later in the year and perm with other selections already made. I know a lot don't like this approach but I am looking to make significant amounts, not 10 - 30% ROI. However, I think at this stage Paisley Park and Tiger Roll have the strongest chance of winning at the festival of any horse in training so very happy with the below.

Watched back a fair bit of the festival today and starting to get very sweet on Minella Indo for the RSA and Klassical Dream for the Champion. Had forgotten how hard Minella Indo pulled through the Albert Bartlett and his strength up the straight at Punchestown to beat Allaho.

450pts Paisley Park (5) Topofthegame (14)
510pts Paisley Park (5) Santini (16)
450 pts Paisley Park (5) Envoi Allen (14)
510pts Paisley Park (4) Delta Work (33)
112 pts Paisley Park (4) Altior (14)
510pts Paisley Park (4) Samcro (33)
150 pts Paisley Park (4) Presenting Percy (14)
250pts Paisley Park (4) Lostintranslation (33)
150pts Paisley Park (7/2) Princess Vega (33)
22pts Klassical Dream Envoi Allen


750pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (14) Topofthegame (10)
900pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (14) Santini (16)
240pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Presenting Percy (16)
60pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Presenting Percy (16)
280pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Al Boum Photo (7)
160pts Paisley Park Altior Klassical Dream
60pts Paisley Park Altior Klassical Dream
750pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (12) Min (12)
400pts Paisley Park (3) Envoi Allen (10) Defi Du Seuil (8)
60pts Paisley Park (5/2) Tiger Roll (13/8) Benie Des Dieux (6)
240pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Altior (3)
530pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Altior (3)
225pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Draconien (40)
340pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Minella Indo (12) Princess Vega (5/4 - Won but BOG of 2 so payout will be significantly bigger)
565pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Next Destination (20) Dlauro (2 - Won)
115pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Kemboy (6)
250pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Klassical Dream (5) Victory Day (15/8 - Won)


50000pts Paisley Park (5) Malone Road (20) Envoi Allen (14) Topofthegame (14)
25000pts Paisley Park (4) Envoi Allen (16) Malone Road (16) Topofthegame (14)
140pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Klassical Dream (5) Envoi Allen (10)

Points obviously relate to return not stake!
 
Ran to 169RPR on soft ground and came third only beaten 3 lengths last year, he needs good ground to be seen at his best, I thought 20/1 looked a rock solid ew bet especially with superstar 2 miler potentially being stepped up, he will be 8 come March so could be about to peak.
But hearing Kingy talk Im pretty concerned that they might step him up, if they kept him at 2 miles and it was decent ground though, I think it would be an excellent selection at that price, nothing not to like?
 
Kautostar said:
Couldn’t have sceau royal on my mind for anything at Cheltenham. Will win the odd race over the season no doubt but simply isn’t good enough to win a champion chase or Ryanair
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Ran to 169RPR on soft ground and came third only beaten 3 lengths last year, he needs good ground to be seen at his best, I thought 20/1 looked a rock solid ew bet especially with superstar 2 miler potentially being stepped up, he will be 8 come March so could be about to peak.
But hearing Kingy talk Im pretty concerned that they might step him up, if they kept him at 2 miles and it was decent ground though, I think it would be an excellent selection at that price, nothing not to like?
 
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