Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[ComplyOrDie]

I really like Brahma Bull (impossible not to as an open fan of the "Attitude era" :highly_amused: ) - and connections make me take notice of them all....

which is why I do specifically remember Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins saying that a track like Cheltenham wouldn't suit him.

You'll never find the footage, it was not high profile but it stuck with me because I thought about him as a chasing type.



However, this was the season before last I think, and tracks 'suiting' isn't something they'd know until they tried.... so let's hope that very random sound-byte I remember, is not very important!

Cheers Kev, hadn't been aware of the quotes so that is interesting to hear.

As it is with Bet365 I'd be happy to leave it as is for now, with the option of cash out.

 

[billymag]

Nicky was totally dismissive of the 4 mile suggestion, but your always going to have the JP factor to consider, JP will get what he wants.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Thanks Billymag. Any targets mentioned for Rathhill. He has already won a Novice Hurdle, so maybe Novice chasing over 2M/2M4F.

The Glancing Queen I presume would be aimed at the Mares Novice Hurdle.

Shishkin has won a Bumper, so Novice Hurdles over 2M/2M4F?

I am a big fan of Fusil Raffles, the horse had a difficult season but manager two runs of top quality, a romping Group 2 win and a comfortable Group 1 win. In the latter beating Fakir D by more than Pentland Hill. I think Fusil Raffles has the same OR as Pentland Hills after an interrupted season, at 152.

If any juvenile has a big chance in the Champion Hurdle then I am keen on that horse being Fusil Raffles.

 

[billymag]

He didnt mention a target for Rathhill other than chasing hes one i would keep a close eye on.

 

[billymag]

Personally ive backed Rathhill for the Arkle at 33/1 and any race at 22/1

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Been off here for a few weeks; come back and find my only bet so far (City Island, Stayers Hurdle) is going chasing; got to love antepost betting!

Great write up as ever Billy; do you think Shishkin will be Nickys Supreme horse this year?

 

[billymag]

I asked Nicky about the distance for Shishkin and he sort of shrugged and said it wouldnt matter!!!! Read into that what you will, personally I wouldnt like to say which novice race after that.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

25's or 27.52/1 for Shishkin 'any race' on Hills to save the worry.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Cheers Billy (as ever)

Is Fly Smart still the big Mullins shout for the Supreme or has anything else been discussed over the summer?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Thought's on Benie Des Dieux for the Stayers?

 

[Quevega]

Thought's on Benie Des Dieux for the Stayers?

I'd imagine they'll go for the Mares though.
Got a sneaky feeling they might end up with Melon in the stayers, although if they go chasing and that goes well enough, maybe not.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd imagine they'll go for the Mares though.
Got a sneaky feeling they might end up with Melon in the stayers, although if they go chasing and that goes well enough, maybe not.

Was my initial thoughts. But could see Laurina doing a BDD, as in chasing in Ireland, before taking up the Mares Hurdle, and then BDD doing an Annie Power and going for the Stayers.

So many thoughts going on, even at this early stage

I suspect Melon will go chasing yeah.

 

[jono]

Unless there's a change of plan during the Summer Melon will be going chasing. Mullins confirmed after the Auteuil race in May.

I strongly think we'll end up with
Laurina - Mares
Benie - Stayers

Mullins was clear many times last year that it was the owners decision to go for the CH and he would have gone for the Mares, Rp stable tour for example:

The owner is keen to go for the Champion Hurdle but it may be more realistic to aim her at the mares race at the festival

Obviously another year in Laurina's progression, different horses to juggle etc etc. It could change but he's also said in the past:

She is top class. If they ever have a mares chase at Cheltenham she'd be aimed at it

No doubt there were some politics within those lines but it's been quite clear throughout most of last season he had his sights set pretty much to Mares races with her. I'd be shocked if she rocks up anywhere near the Arkle/JLT etc.

After Auteuil I just can't see why you'd not be setting Benie's sights at the Stayers after a career best there when it's almost certain they'll be split. Only spanner in the works could come about if they look to exploit Benie's mark over fences in the Ladbroke. I'm all over either Topofthegame or Santini winning it but a win there could force there hand to the Big One.
Either way Laurina will imo be taking her chance in the Mares on day one.

I've placed the double on them both already and have since also been chipping away at
Laurina 6/1 Mares & Paisley Park 7/2 Stayers 30.5 double

 

[Outlaw]

"After Auteuil I just can't see why you'd not be setting Benie's sights at the Stayers after a career best there when it's almost certain they'll be split. Only spanner in the works could come about if they look to exploit Benie's mark over fences in the Ladbroke. I'm all over either Topofthegame or Santini winning it but a win there could force there hand to the Big One.
Either way Laurina will imo be taking her chance in the Mares on day one"

Correct me if i'm wrong but i am sure i read recently that any Irish horse coming to race over here in a different code will be assessed and there chase/hurdle marks will be in line with with current codes mark . So BDD would be reassessed if going the Ladbroke?

 

[Kautostar]

That’s how I understood it outlaw. I can’t see bdd running in the ladbroke tbh

 

[jono]

Correct me if i'm wrong but i am sure i read recently that any Irish horse coming to race over here in a different code will be assessed and there chase/hurdle marks will be in line with with current codes mark . So BDD would be reassessed if going the Ladbroke?

Good spot Outlaw. Not sure how I forgot about this...you've brought back painful memories of The Storyteller!! :sorrow:

 

[Hurricane fly]

In the UK a chase mark can not be any more than 10lb below their hurdles mark and vice versa

 

[Quevega]

Melon will need to improve a lot for a fence as his form outside of cheltenham is a good stone or so lower.
So I personally think there's every chance that he'll still end up in the stayers, although this may also require Willie having a couple of other live chances in the Champion.
In any case, the current odds don't look tempting. I would want 33's or bigger to take this chance, so will wait and see how his try at fences goes. They definitely need to use a bit of imagination for this horse and possibly consider coming over here once or twice before cheltenham to.

I think the Mares would be the number one target as it stands for BDD, and expect Mullins to come out and say this in the Autumn. Although I can fully see the temptation for stayers, I think this race would need to soften up a little for this to be a serious option.
Laurina may be the key to this, as she could go in any direction, in terms of potential or not, fences or hurdles, and trip, except staying at 2 miles maybe. She didn't really have a season last year and essentially had one 'bad run' or maybe that's how good she is ? Seemed to possibly be disadvantaged in the champion with going the extreme pace in the first half mile.

We'll see soon enough. Or maybe not.

 

[Kautostar]

I quite like melon for fences personally, he looks built for the job. His Cheltenham record is good and will be one of the highest rated hurdlers going chasing this season. Think he’ll be a big player in the arkle/jlt

 

[Quevega]

I quite like melon for fences personally, he looks built for the job. His Cheltenham record is good and will be one of the highest rated hurdlers going chasing this season. Think he’ll be a big player in the arkle/jlt

Also, an over rated flat bred 8yr old though in 2020.
But does run his best races at cheltenham for sure. And that's worth a fair bit so if fences come naturally then you never know. Breeding would suggest this is unlikely, but the trainers talent means this could easily happen.