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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

66/1 and 80/1 with SkyBet (requestabet) too. Annoyingly I'm down to £5 limits on any special with them but they do reset after 24hours so have the opportunity to place multiple times at least.

Agree on Lostintranslation but I'd be very surprised if he rocked up in that race. Looks much more a King George type for me. Tizzard tends to have 2 types of staying chasers - your Native River and Elegant Escape types who look like out and out stayers who have already had plenty of races over 3 miles+ - these go the big handicap Chase route of Ladbroke/Welsh National etc. Then you have the horses who have that mix of speed and stamina - Cue Card, Thistlecrack...who are sent to Kempton. I see LIT as the latter for sure
 
billymag said:
Do you guys record the accas that you put on where the first bet loses, seems like a pretty high risk strategy. Be interesting if you could keep a total of your loses so we can see how effective the technique is.
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Billymag, I don’t particularly do acca’s linking weekend racing with long-range Festival bets, more likely the odd couple of fivers on a horse I like running now, with a Cheltenham Festival selection, in a double.

For example looking now at ELARQAM for the Juddmonte International at York next week. Needs supplementing but this is stated at 90% certain.

I don’t have any Festival selections for Novice Hurdles at the moment, so I am looking at William Hills prices and putting
£5 Double Elarqam (Juddmonte) 10/1 & Shishkin (Supreme) 25/1 - pays £1430 for a fiver
£5 Double Elarqam (Juddmonte) 10/1 & Festival D’Ex (Ballymore) 25/1 - pays £1430 for a fiver.

So I keep low stakes and looking at doubling something I am looking at betting in a race in the next few days together with a long range Festival selection. If the first selection goes in then I have a very decent payout on a single horse in a Festival race.

Some will fall by the wayside, but I only really need one to come good at the above figures to give a handsome profit on the small stakes I am using.

Also it saves me putting larger stakes win singles bets on these Festival selections if I already have a bet rolling worth a payout of £500, £1,000 or £1,500.
 
billymag said:
Do you guys record the accas that you put on where the first bet loses, seems like a pretty high risk strategy. Be interesting if you could keep a total of your loses so we can see how effective the technique is.
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All of my bets throughout the year are recorded on a spreadsheet so they just form part of my overall profit / loss. I keep records aligned with financial year to capture the festival and simplify record keeping.

Well it simplifies it in my head.
 
I did use to do long range Festival Trixies and Yankees, but now see these as unattractive and now my strategy is to do these when NRNB occurs on all 28 races, within a week of the Festival starting. That has been much more profitable.

That’s why I switched my long range Festival bets to be straight singles as early as their talent and target can be sensibly guessed at, for example:

Klassical Dream @ 8/1 Champion Hurdle
Fusil Raffles @ 55/1 Champion Hurdle,
Chacun Pour Soi @ 28/1 Champion Chase
Minella Indo @ 22/1 RSA
Bright Forecast @ 28/1 RSA
Defi Du Seuil @ 17/1 Ryanair Chase
City Island @ 22/1 Stayers Hurdle (would need to step back from chasing now though)
Gypsy Island @ 16/1 Mares Novice Hurdle
The Glancing Queen @ 22/1 Mares Novice Hurdle
Delta Work @ 25/1 & 20/1 Gold Cup
Lostintranslation @ 16/1 Gold Cup
Topofthegame @ 15/1 Gold Cup

I also like William Hill’s ‘Any Festival Race’ and have

Blue Sari @ 12/1
A Plus Tard @ 18/1
Delta Work @ 15/1
Gypsy Island @ 17/1
Chacun Pour Soi @ 22/1
Minella Indo @ 15/1

I add in the small stakes fiver doubles I mentioned above with fancies I have through the season with a Festival (or other antepost) selections, and from those I have bets running on

Cyrname £585 payout (from a £5 double) for the King George
Band Of Outlaws £451 payout (from a £2 double) for the Champion Hurdle
A Plus Tard £630 payout (from a £5 double) for the Ryanair Chase
Shantou Flyer £450 payout (from a £2 double) for the Foxhunters
Shantou Flyer £487 payout (from a a £5 double) for the Foxhunters

So I have a position mostly backing horses proven at the Festival and reinvesting some of my profits from this March.

I won’t get interested in Yankee’s, Trixies until the week before the Festival where some new opportunities can arise, including in the handicaps.
 
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Great stuff lads. Ive followed you in on santini and TOTG double. Interestingly Sky have relaxed the restrictions on my account. It used to be that I was restricted to £100 liability on bets, but now they are letting me put way more on (no BOG still). Not sure why but its very much welcome!!!!
 
billymag said:
Great stuff lads. Ive followed you in on santini and TOTG double. Interestingly Sky have relaxed the restrictions on my account. It used to be that I was restricted to £100 liability on bets, but now they are letting me put way more on (no BOG still). Not sure why but its very much welcome!!!!
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I am exactly the same as you with Sky restrictions. Will give them a look again to see if my account has become usable once more.
 
Had restrictions for all bookies over the years this is the first that has been reversed.
 
billymag said:
Had restrictions for all bookies over the years this is the first that has been reversed.
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A sign of the times maybe Billymag , with the restrictions on F.o.b.t , they need every penny they can get ??.
* Unless your too successful of course !! *
 
Kevloaf said:
How many pts have you staked so far for the above in total?

I'm always interested in how people approach the 'life changing' bets as a strategy.
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70 points staked so far Kev. Probably wont stake too much more until post Christmas (at least Ill try to) as most of my success this year was from bets post Christmas.
 
Kautostar said:
Vautour do you not do any singles at all?
I like a good double or Yankee etc for Cheltenham but wouldn’t base my entire festival on them.
I’ve had enough non runners over the years to know not to put all my eggs in one basket so although I agree paisley park is banker material at this stage, what happens if he gets injured?
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Do some but not a huge amount - generally do them closer to Cheltenham. I appreciate that seems illogical! Had Klassical Dream at 36/1 last year but beacuse of that I didnt include him in doubles, trebles etc and cost me quite alot - swings and roundabouts.

I had a bad Cheltenham in 2018 and didnt recoup anything. However, I was Apples Jade away from 20k so for me that is a trade off Im happy to make.
 
https://twitter.com/RacingPost/status/1161208297254465536?s=19

Gavin Cromwell has revealed that reigning Champion Hurdler Espoir D’Allen looks like he will be out for the season after suffering an injury at home. The 5yo took a fall on the gallops last week and is still undergoing tests in Fethard Equine Hospital.

Cromwell said: “Last Thursday he had done a little canter and coming back in off the gallop he got spooked, reared up and fell over. He is down in Fethard Equine Hospital and we still haven't found what's wrong with him, but it looks like he is going to be out for the season.”

“They are still doing tests on him and the vets don't seem very optimistic of him making a speedy recovery. It’s a massive blow for everybody in the yard.” Full story to follow on https://t.co/aDE2R2Xfwi
 
Klassical Dream into as short as 3/1 after the Espoir D'Allen news, however Bet365 are either not changing their odds or a bit slow on it and are still 6's for those interested.

Edit: They've literally just taken the market down!
 
365 7/2 now.


Took the 6s and doubled with Benie for mares.

Awful news about Espoir and huge blow to the yard.
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
365 7/2 now.


Took the 6s and doubled with Benie for mares.

Awful news about Espoir and huge blow to the yard.
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Yeah I managed some of the 6's.

Big blow for the yard, but I'm sure he'll be back and that is all that matters really.
 
Big shame for the yard. Just a few days ago Cromwell came out with a positive update on him and you could tell just what the CH win and Espoir D'Allen have done for the yard. Also means we'll miss out on what I'm sure would have been some great match ups between him and KD through the Irish Trials. Hard to see past KD at this rate now. Well done to those who grabbed some 6s.
 
Big shame for that horse and yard in particular.
Bigger outfits could probably absorb some loss of talent for a season but that’ll dent his yard a fair bit I reckon.
Hopefully JP has given him some more ammunition.
 
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