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Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

Would you think Elliott would be keen to keep Mala Beach in this race so The Storyteller has a nice race weight?
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Would you think Elliott would be keen to keep Mala Beach in this race so The Storyteller has a nice race weight?[/QUOTE

storyteller could well be running in the plate instead
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Thanks for pointing that out, I wasn't sure where he would end up tbh.

I notice in Ireland The Storyteller is rated 147 and Tully East is 146, yet over here Phil Smith has The Storyteller 1lb inferior to Tully East, so again looks as though The Storyteller could be well in which ever race they decide.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
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Thanks for pointing that out, I wasn't sure where he would end up tbh.

I notice in Ireland The Storyteller is rated 147 and Tully East is 146, yet over here Phil Smith has The Storyteller 1lb inferior to Tully East, so again looks as though The Storyteller could be well in which ever race they decide.
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I hope he is.... because I've now backed The Storyteller in 4 races :highly_amused:
 
Are we all going to be kicking ourselves when Singlefarmpayment wins this in 12 days time? I keep coming back to him but don't want to back him.
 
Folski said:
Are we all going to be kicking ourselves when Singlefarmpayment wins this in 12 days time? I keep coming back to him but don't want to back him.
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No I won't kick myself if he wins....

But I backed him already :p
 
Folski said:
Are we all going to be kicking ourselves when Singlefarmpayment wins this in 12 days time? I keep coming back to him but don't want to back him.
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I'll have him onside Folski, same weight as last year and no UTPT to get past this year.
It's easy to say he hasn't hit form this season but he was tanking in the Hennessy when tipping up, his Ascot run doesn't read so bad now when you take into account the subsequent performances of Yala Enki and Frodon (who is now rated 162) and whilst his Trials Day run appeared a poor one it did come down to one error that stopped him in his tracks.
He may not be my main bet but I'd be throwing myself off the grandstand roof if he obliged and I didn't have a bean on....
 
I'm with him all the way. Was well backed on trials day, just like last year. Just hope his jumping gets back to where it was last year!
 
Trainer off form at the minute in a big way is also a worry.

I do think his runs aren't as bad as they are made out to be also. At Ascot he was markedly left at his fences and as you say form has worked out well.
 
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SFP goes to Yogi's tomorrow. Had an away day yesterday and is per Tom George "at the top of his game, comes into his own this time of year".
 
Folski said:
SFP goes to Yogi's tomorrow. Had an away day yesterday and is per Tom George "at the top of his game, comes into his own this time of year".
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Positive comments indeed.
 
Folski said:
Are we all going to be kicking ourselves when Singlefarmpayment wins this in 12 days time? I keep coming back to him but don't want to back him.
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Feel exactly the same Folski , been very disappointing to me this season ,But ??????.
 
BigChaang said:
Feel exactly the same Folski , been very disappointing to me this season ,But ??????.
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I've the same nagging feeling that I had with Holywell and UTPT (1st time) when they won for SFP this year, will be backing him.
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
Does Snow Falcon run here do any of the lads/lasses in Ireland know?
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Hope he does run in this, handicap mark 10lb below peak hurdle mark. Completely unexposed over 3m over fences. Didn't look to totally get the 3m last year in stayers though.
 
Folski said:
I've the same nagging feeling that I had with Holywell and UTPT (1st time) when they won for SFP this year, will be backing him.
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Yes will also be backing him. Nothing wrong with first two runs and third run was creditable. Obviously fourth run was disappointing jumping through one in the straight but worth backing.
 
opatcho said:
Traffic Fluide wins (40/1) :encouragement:
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He' s going to run a mighty race. Dropped 13lb I think. Excellent form if you forgive his recent runs. He will be one of mine at 33s offered by Billy. Needs 2 1/2 M to show his best so maybe the Brown Advisory ?
 
In the last 8 years of this 8 of 8 winners (as far as I went back) had been awarded ratings higher than what they won off.

The lowest differential from highest rating to won off rating was 1lb which was TDN. He was awarded 147 but ran in Hennessey off 141 due to time between run, he was subsequently dropped to 146.


2017 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 155 high 159
2016 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 148 high 154
2015 - The Druids Nephew off 146 high 147
2014 - Holywell off 145 high 158
2013 - Golden Chieftain off 132 high 142
2012 - Alfie Sherrin off 129 high 144
2011 - Bensalem off 143 high 153
2010 - Chief Dan George off 142 high 155

As horses 11+ have not won this in 20 years, I have excluded all 11+ horses and all winners had won either 0 or 1 handicap chase so I have removed anything with 2+ handicap chase wins (sorry Golden Present fans). 8 of 8 were novices or 2nd season chasers, anything more than a season removed from its novice season was taken out. 8 of 8 had placed listed form at a minimum. 7 of 8 had won over 3m, exception 2nd in G1 hurdle over 3m. Leaves us with the below.

17lb higher - Gwencily Berbas.
10lb higher - Snow Falcon, Missed Approach.
06lb higher - Bigbadjohn.
03lb higher - Alpha Des Obeaux, Rock The Kasbah, General Principle.
02lb higher - Singlefarmpayment.
01lb higher - O O Seven, Vintage Clouds, Tintern Theatre.

Narrowing that down to 3 think I would go ADO, SFP & Snow Falcon.
 
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