Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

[Hurricane fly]

Isn’t the saying

Once a bleeder always a bleeder?


ADO has also had a very long season, 7 races in under 5 months, basically racing every three weeks with a lot more “weakened” appearing in his write ups where as his best performances seem to be with atleast a month off.

I like the horse - backed him against Might Bite last year - but can’t be having him for a win in anything.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Isn’t the saying

Once a bleeder always a bleeder?


ADO has also had a very long season, 7 races in under 5 months, basically racing every three weeks with a lot more “weakened” appearing in his write ups where as his best performances seem to be with atleast a month off.

I like the horse - backed him against Might Bite last year - but can’t be having him for a win in anything.

He'll have had over a 5 week gap between the Irish Gold Cup and Cheltenham.

I like the horse too HF but probably won't back him. It wouldn't surprise me if he won though.

Previous festival form is good (2nd in a world hurdle; 4th in a RSA) but with a mark of 156 he's certainly not thrown in.

 

[Kevloaf]

The bleeding does worry me yes.

The 2nd and 4th at the festival I like.

The "thrown in to every race to see what sticks" approach puts me off a bit

His form this season that is highlighted I like.

His mark of 156 is high

But are now than 4 others chucked in at their weight? If not then he deserves that rating and would place if he ran his race.

I wouldn't take the chance at 20/1 .... I will at 33/1

*1 pt e/w at 36.75/1

 

[BigChaang]

In the last 8 years of this 8 of 8 winners (as far as I went back) had been awarded ratings higher than what they won off.

The lowest differential from highest rating to won off rating was 1lb which was TDN. He was awarded 147 but ran in Hennessey off 141 due to time between run, he was subsequently dropped to 146.


2017 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 155 high 159
2016 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 148 high 154
2015 - The Druids Nephew off 146 high 147
2014 - Holywell off 145 high 158
2013 - Golden Chieftain off 132 high 142
2012 - Alfie Sherrin off 129 high 144
2011 - Bensalem off 143 high 153
2010 - Chief Dan George off 142 high 155

As horses 11+ have not won this in 20 years, I have excluded all 11+ horses and all winners had won either 0 or 1 handicap chase so I have removed anything with 2+ handicap chase wins (sorry Golden Present fans). 8 of 8 were novices or 2nd season chasers, anything more than a season removed from its novice season was taken out. 8 of 8 had placed listed form at a minimum. 7 of 8 had won over 3m, exception 2nd in G1 hurdle over 3m. Leaves us with the below.

17lb higher - Gwencily Berbas.
10lb higher - Snow Falcon, Missed Approach.
06lb higher - Bigbadjohn.
03lb higher - Alpha Des Obeaux, Rock The Kasbah, General Principle.
02lb higher - Singlefarmpayment.
01lb higher - O O Seven, Vintage Clouds, Tintern Theatre.

Narrowing that down to 3 think I would go ADO, SFP & Snow Falcon.

Been looking at this race over and over again last few days , A couple i came up with were Bigbadjohn and American , also ,
and i know he's six .Ramses de Teilles , Just would'nt want to totally rule a Pipe runner out

 

[Deleted member 4957]

The big thing with bleeders is recovery time.
There's no real science on how much time, some horses need 10 weeks others less, is 5 weeks long enough ?
Arguably ADOs best performance was his second in the Stayers which came 8 weeks after his previous run, but that's not to say he can't perform with credit having had a 5 week gap, he's done it before...

 

[Brital]

That wouldn't concern me Brital, as a French bred (and not knowing the horses history) he was probably jumping brush hurdles at 2 and fences at 3, French horses are always introduced to NH ahead of British and Irish breds.
I would be more worried about a 9/10yo French bred being too old on the basis he is probably in his 7th/8th year of racing and may already be in regression...

Thanks Ista, that’s even more encouraging. I think he’s a big price for this and took 66’s on the exchange yesterday.
I just hope he comes here now.

 

[Bayoffreedom]

Seems like there's an outside chance of Seeyouatmidnight coming here. Looks unlikely and he probably wouldn't be fully wound up but, at his best, he would have a big chance in this - there are a lot in here either past their best, poorly handicapped or out of form so he could be interesting if turning up.

 

[Kevloaf]

Seems like there's an outside chance of Seeyouatmidnight coming here. Looks unlikely and he probably wouldn't be fully wound up but, at his best, he would have a big chance in this - there are a lot in here either past their best, poorly handicapped or out of form so he could be interesting if turning up.

I've always liked that horse. I remember him being really well fancied for the RSA when he'd beat Blaklion at Cheltenham but Blaklion won the RSA and ended up beaten 7/8 33L - then placed in the Scottish National behind Vicente (backed him then as well)

Has a win over Bristol De Mai after that in a 2 horse race too where I think he jumped brilliantly.

IF he ran his race he has pieces of form that would put him in the mix... If I see a bit of 40/1 I might have a bet

 

[Middle_Of_March]

My only reservation with Alpha des Obeaux is the fact he now seems to have fallen into the category of a 'Gigginstown, run him in every possible staying chase under the sun and hope for the best' kind of horse!

7 runs this season from October is a lot and he has become an in and out horse where you are not quite sure which version of the horse is going to turn up. Add in his previous burst blood vessel issues in the past then that would be a worry? It doesn't look like that has re-occured this season yet from what i'm aware but it's something that will likely do so at some point.

That said his 2nd behind Total Recall, winning the Clonmel Oil Chase (beating Balko des Flos and A Toi Phil) and Christmas Chase run at Leopardstown (hampered) read well. He's been running in Gold Cup trials and like you say Kev it's the Ultima not the Gold Cup that he'll be running in

Need to check over his form again and see if there's any pattern or criteria that is best suited...

ADO each way at 25s last year in the RSA was my biggest antepost bet of the festival I believe. He finished fourth after bleeding.

I was gutted.

He then won this season a decent race.

His inconsistency means he is a danger at 33s but not one to rely on.

 

[Kevloaf]

I've come down very strongly on Snow Falcon after seeing how incredibly well horses that have a significantly higher hurdle rating than chase rating have done.

Snow Falcon is rated 8 lbs lower than his hurdle mark and despite not being in a chase over 3m yet (which is against some trends), his hurdle 3m form was good enough to place in group 1 company (1.5L 3rd behind Yanworth and Supasundae at Aintree).

Interestingly there aren't many of the entries that ARE rated higher over hurdles than fences... (down to about 60 in the list)... but the ones that are, are ones I have already backed!.... The Storyteller (5lbs) and Alpha Des Obeaux (3 lbs). General Principle and Ibis Du Rheu also fit the bill but not sure either are coming here ....

Just to back it up... and there are more.... but recent years... Un Temps Pour Tout (15lb lower), Holywell (12lb) both had "more" in hand, but 8 lbs to me is quite a lot to potentially have in hand!

 

[Kevloaf]

I've come down very strongly on Snow Falcon after seeing how incredibly well horses that have a significantly higher hurdle rating than chase rating have done.

Snow Falcon is rated 8 lbs lower than his hurdle mark and despite not being in a chase over 3m yet (which is against some trends), his hurdle 3m form was good enough to place in group 1 company (1.5L 3rd behind Yanworth and Supasundae at Aintree).

Interestingly there aren't many of the entries that ARE rated higher over hurdles than fences... (down to about 60 in the list)... but the ones that are, are ones I have already backed!.... The Storyteller (5lbs) and Alpha Des Obeaux (3 lbs). General Principle and Ibis Du Rheu also fit the bill but not sure either are coming here ....

Just to back it up... and there are more.... but recent years... Un Temps Pour Tout (15lb lower), Holywell (12lb) both had "more" in hand, but 8 lbs to me is quite a lot to potentially have in hand!

So so tempted to add General Principle as well at - 7 lbs of improvement on his hurdles rating and would sneak in with a really low weight....

Not that a low weight has been to the fore in this though recently....

 

[Bayoffreedom]

I've come down very strongly on Snow Falcon after seeing how incredibly well horses that have a significantly higher hurdle rating than chase rating have done.

Snow Falcon is rated 8 lbs lower than his hurdle mark and despite not being in a chase over 3m yet (which is against some trends), his hurdle 3m form was good enough to place in group 1 company (1.5L 3rd behind Yanworth and Supasundae at Aintree).

Interestingly there aren't many of the entries that ARE rated higher over hurdles than fences... (down to about 60 in the list)... but the ones that are, are ones I have already backed!.... The Storyteller (5lbs) and Alpha Des Obeaux (3 lbs). General Principle and Ibis Du Rheu also fit the bill but not sure either are coming here ....

Just to back it up... and there are more.... but recent years... Un Temps Pour Tout (15lb lower), Holywell (12lb) both had "more" in hand, but 8 lbs to me is quite a lot to potentially have in hand!

Took a while but you got there in the end Here or the Plate (possibly the latter) - he will have a great chance.

 

[Kevloaf]

Took a while but you got there in the end Here or the Plate (possibly the latter) - he will have a great chance.

Will cover for the Brown Plate... 20s for that and no stamina doubts either...

 

[charlie]

I've added Alpha Des Obeaux @ 33/1

 

[charlie]

I've come down very strongly on Snow Falcon after seeing how incredibly well horses that have a significantly higher hurdle rating than chase rating have done.

Snow Falcon is rated 8 lbs lower than his hurdle mark and despite not being in a chase over 3m yet (which is against some trends), his hurdle 3m form was good enough to place in group 1 company (1.5L 3rd behind Yanworth and Supasundae at Aintree).

Interestingly there aren't many of the entries that ARE rated higher over hurdles than fences... (down to about 60 in the list)... but the ones that are, are ones I have already backed!.... The Storyteller (5lbs) and Alpha Des Obeaux (3 lbs). General Principle and Ibis Du Rheu also fit the bill but not sure either are coming here ....

Just to back it up... and there are more.... but recent years... Un Temps Pour Tout (15lb lower), Holywell (12lb) both had "more" in hand, but 8 lbs to me is quite a lot to potentially have in hand!

Added @ 20/1. You make a very good argument

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I see a little bit of money for Pendra today for this race, a horse talked about quite a bit in the Kim Muir thread, and still probably the most likely race, but what does everyone think of his chances in this race should he come here?

As Jono has pointed in the KM thread, the horse has a quite remarkable record when coming back from a long lay off, in fact, it seems the longer the lay off the better, he is clearly geared towards his seasonal debut.

He ran in this race 3 seasons ago, finishing 5th off of a 102 day break, and of course finish 2nd last season in the Kim Muir off of a break of 341 days.

I'm unsure how the stats look for him in this race compared with the Kim Muir? But given he is a 10 year old he is still incredibly lightly races.

 

[robith]

I'm lost on this race. So many stats. I also can't remember my last handicap winner (Superb Story I think). Might just swerve it

 

[Old Vic]

I see a little bit of money for Pendra today for this race, a horse talked about quite a bit in the Kim Muir thread, and still probably the most likely race, but what does everyone think of his chances in this race should he come here?

As Jono has pointed in the KM thread, the horse has a quite remarkable record when coming back from a long lay off, in fact, it seems the longer the lay off the better, he is clearly geared towards his seasonal debut.

He ran in this race 3 seasons ago, finishing 5th off of a 102 day break, and of course finish 2nd last season in the Kim Muir off of a break of 341 days.

I'm unsure how the stats look for him in this race compared with the Kim Muir? But given he is a 10 year old he is still incredibly lightly races.

He has a very nice weight for the Grand National and should sneak in at the bottom.

 

[doctorwu]

BOF,
Snow Falcon.
I can't see him coming here. Wouldn't want him too either as I don't think he'll get home in this race. I think they know that, so would think its the Plate.

 

[kinloch brae]

I don't see Snow Falcon at all. Far too many negatives. 5th in two Cheltenham runs, looking to travel well and finishing tamely both times. Had the run of the race in the Flogas and finished weakly again. Didn't jump hurdles well and really isn't that good over fences. He jumps some fine but is hesitant at too many others. In a big field he will surely need to jump better. I don't think soft ground is ideal for him either. He has been backed a few times in the past but not delivered. Suspect he will always be an under achiever. I am pretty sure Meade would have seen him as a graded horse for this year's Festival so if he comes here even the trainer will have revised his expectations downwards.