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Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

Folski said:
In the last 8 years of this 8 of 8 winners (as far as I went back) had been award ratings higher than what they won off.

The lowest differential from highest rating to lowest was 1lb which TDN was awarded 147 but ran in Hennessey off 141 due to time between run, he was subsequently dropped to 146.


2017 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 155 high 159
2016 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 148 high 154
2015 - The Druids Nephew off 146 high 147
2014 - Holywell off 145 high 158
2013 - Golden Chieftain off 132 high 142
2012 - Alfie Sherrin off 129 high 144
2011 - Bensalem off 143 high 153
2010 - Chief Dan George off 142 high 155

As horses 11+ have not won this in 20 years I have excluded all 11+ olds and all winners had won either 0 or 1 handicap chase so I have removed anything with 2+ handicap chase wins (sorry Golden Present fans). 8 of 8 were novices or 2nd season chasers, anything more than a season removed from its novice season was taken out. 8 of 8 had placed listed form at a minimum. 7 of 8 had won over 3m, exception 2nd in G1 hurdle over 3m. Leaves us with the below.

17lb higher - Gwencily Berbas.
10lb higher - Snow Falcon, Missed Approach.
06lb higher - Bigbadjohn.
03lb higher - Alpha Des Obeaux, Rock The Kasbah, General Principle.
02lb higher - Singlefarmpayment.
01lb higher - O O Seven, Vintage Clouds, Tintern Theatre.

Narrowing that down to 3 think I would go ADO, SFP & Snow Falcon.
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excellent work that.
And when you factor in the number of horses that have ran in the race before tending to run well the following or in subsequent years SFM is a solid choice
 
Thanks Folski , excellent work . Have you looked at the Brown Advisory yet.? Does Traffic Fluide figure? Cheers.
 
Bigfish said:
Thanks Folski , excellent work . Have you looked at the Brown Advisory yet.? Does Traffic Fluide figure? Cheers.
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On the the novices now, be a while before I get there BF.
 
Thanks for the reply , carry on with your stirling work. I wait patiently.
 
Folski said:
In the last 8 years of this 8 of 8 winners (as far as I went back) had been awarded ratings higher than what they won off.

The lowest differential from highest rating to won off rating was 1lb which was TDN. He was awarded 147 but ran in Hennessey off 141 due to time between run, he was subsequently dropped to 146.


2017 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 155 high 159
2016 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 148 high 154
2015 - The Druids Nephew off 146 high 147
2014 - Holywell off 145 high 158
2013 - Golden Chieftain off 132 high 142
2012 - Alfie Sherrin off 129 high 144
2011 - Bensalem off 143 high 153
2010 - Chief Dan George off 142 high 155

As horses 11+ have not won this in 20 years, I have excluded all 11+ horses and all winners had won either 0 or 1 handicap chase so I have removed anything with 2+ handicap chase wins (sorry Golden Present fans). 8 of 8 were novices or 2nd season chasers, anything more than a season removed from its novice season was taken out. 8 of 8 had placed listed form at a minimum. 7 of 8 had won over 3m, exception 2nd in G1 hurdle over 3m. Leaves us with the below.

17lb higher - Gwencily Berbas.
10lb higher - Snow Falcon, Missed Approach.
06lb higher - Bigbadjohn.
03lb higher - Alpha Des Obeaux, Rock The Kasbah, General Principle.
02lb higher - Singlefarmpayment.
01lb higher - O O Seven, Vintage Clouds, Tintern Theatre.

Narrowing that down to 3 think I would go ADO, SFP & Snow Falcon.
Click to expand...

Top stuff folski. Does that mean you have included their hurdle rating in their all time high though?
 
Folski said:
In the last 8 years of this 8 of 8 winners (as far as I went back) had been awarded ratings higher than what they won off.

The lowest differential from highest rating to won off rating was 1lb which was TDN. He was awarded 147 but ran in Hennessey off 141 due to time between run, he was subsequently dropped to 146.


2017 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 155 high 159
2016 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 148 high 154
2015 - The Druids Nephew off 146 high 147
2014 - Holywell off 145 high 158
2013 - Golden Chieftain off 132 high 142
2012 - Alfie Sherrin off 129 high 144
2011 - Bensalem off 143 high 153
2010 - Chief Dan George off 142 high 155

As horses 11+ have not won this in 20 years, I have excluded all 11+ horses and all winners had won either 0 or 1 handicap chase so I have removed anything with 2+ handicap chase wins (sorry Golden Present fans). 8 of 8 were novices or 2nd season chasers, anything more than a season removed from its novice season was taken out. 8 of 8 had placed listed form at a minimum. 7 of 8 had won over 3m, exception 2nd in G1 hurdle over 3m. Leaves us with the below.

17lb higher - Gwencily Berbas.
10lb higher - Snow Falcon, Missed Approach.
06lb higher - Bigbadjohn.
03lb higher - Alpha Des Obeaux, Rock The Kasbah, General Principle.
02lb higher - Singlefarmpayment.
01lb higher - O O Seven, Vintage Clouds, Tintern Theatre.

Narrowing that down to 3 think I would go ADO, SFP & Snow Falcon.
Click to expand...

Superb work that Folski :encouragement:
 
A horse I’ve had on my watch list since I saw it win at Chepstow in Jan is Ramses de Teillee.
That day it had Rons Dream and Impulsive Star 7l and 10l behind.

It has been allocated 10-13 in the UBS.
Checking Gault Stats it matches the following trends:
Handicap Rating over 140
Already won a Class 3 chase
Won or placed over 3m in 2 of last 3 runs – its form reads 2121 over fences with 3 of those over 3m
Watch for D Pipe, Tony Martin or Jonjo trained – his trainer is D Pipe
Not a claiming jockey – he’s been ridden by Tom Scudamore every race this season so I presume he’ll take the ride again.

The only major trend he doesn’t match is he’s only 6 and most winners are 7-10.

He is also entered in the Close where he is top weight, but his best form seems to be over 3m.

He’s 33/1 in places and generally 25/1 elsewhere. One at a price that maybe worth considering?
 
Folski said:
In the last 8 years of this 8 of 8 winners (as far as I went back) had been awarded ratings higher than what they won off.

The lowest differential from highest rating to won off rating was 1lb which was TDN. He was awarded 147 but ran in Hennessey off 141 due to time between run, he was subsequently dropped to 146.


2017 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 155 high 159
2016 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 148 high 154
2015 - The Druids Nephew off 146 high 147
2014 - Holywell off 145 high 158
2013 - Golden Chieftain off 132 high 142
2012 - Alfie Sherrin off 129 high 144
2011 - Bensalem off 143 high 153
2010 - Chief Dan George off 142 high 155

As horses 11+ have not won this in 20 years, I have excluded all 11+ horses and all winners had won either 0 or 1 handicap chase so I have removed anything with 2+ handicap chase wins (sorry Golden Present fans). 8 of 8 were novices or 2nd season chasers, anything more than a season removed from its novice season was taken out. 8 of 8 had placed listed form at a minimum. 7 of 8 had won over 3m, exception 2nd in G1 hurdle over 3m. Leaves us with the below.

17lb higher - Gwencily Berbas.
10lb higher - Snow Falcon, Missed Approach.
06lb higher - Bigbadjohn.
03lb higher - Alpha Des Obeaux, Rock The Kasbah, General Principle.
02lb higher - Singlefarmpayment.
01lb higher - O O Seven, Vintage Clouds, Tintern Theatre.

Narrowing that down to 3 think I would go ADO, SFP & Snow Falcon.
Click to expand...

Phenomenal work, Folski. On the OR variance, Snow Falcon's only 1lb on his Chase ratings, so presume you were doing it inclusive on hurdle rating. With past winners, were their peak ratings chase though? Rock The Kasbah is at his peak Chase OR.

But your stats are great, because, along with Gault Stats, they indicate this is a race for peak aged horses who have been chasing for no more than two seasons but have been operating at a higher level against better opponents than the Ultima style field, and have seen their mark drop (or be managed).
 
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In fact, when you cross reference your analysis with Gault Stats, if I've done it correctly (and assuming your OR variance stat is based on Chase OR not including Hurdle OR, which feels more reassuring anyway), you are literally left with 2 horses in the field:

Alpha Des Obeaux
Singlefarmpayment

Edit! Ooops. Missed Approach's OR is too low for Gault Stats.

That leaves 2, ADO and SFP... SFP.

Given ADO's mark looks a tad high, in my opinion based on how uncompetitive he's been in some 3m races this season, it leads me to lean towards SFP, who looks very solid.
 
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Brital said:
A horse I’ve had on my watch list since I saw it win at Chepstow in Jan is Ramses de Teillee.

The only major trend he doesn’t match is he’s only 6 and most winners are 7-10.
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That wouldn't concern me Brital, as a French bred (and not knowing the horses history) he was probably jumping brush hurdles at 2 and fences at 3, French horses are always introduced to NH ahead of British and Irish breds.
I would be more worried about a 9/10yo French bred being too old on the basis he is probably in his 7th/8th year of racing and may already be in regression...
 
Folski said:
In the last 8 years of this 8 of 8 winners (as far as I went back) had been awarded ratings higher than what they won off.

The lowest differential from highest rating to won off rating was 1lb which was TDN. He was awarded 147 but ran in Hennessey off 141 due to time between run, he was subsequently dropped to 146.


2017 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 155 high 159
2016 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 148 high 154
2015 - The Druids Nephew off 146 high 147
2014 - Holywell off 145 high 158
2013 - Golden Chieftain off 132 high 142
2012 - Alfie Sherrin off 129 high 144
2011 - Bensalem off 143 high 153
2010 - Chief Dan George off 142 high 155

As horses 11+ have not won this in 20 years, I have excluded all 11+ horses and all winners had won either 0 or 1 handicap chase so I have removed anything with 2+ handicap chase wins (sorry Golden Present fans). 8 of 8 were novices or 2nd season chasers, anything more than a season removed from its novice season was taken out. 8 of 8 had placed listed form at a minimum. 7 of 8 had won over 3m, exception 2nd in G1 hurdle over 3m. Leaves us with the below.

17lb higher - Gwencily Berbas.
10lb higher - Snow Falcon, Missed Approach.
06lb higher - Bigbadjohn.
03lb higher - Alpha Des Obeaux, Rock The Kasbah, General Principle.
02lb higher - Singlefarmpayment.
01lb higher - O O Seven, Vintage Clouds, Tintern Theatre.

Narrowing that down to 3 think I would go ADO, SFP & Snow Falcon.
Click to expand...

If you follow trends at all, I think that is superb 'tipping'. Well done Folski, yet another good post:encouragement:

I was discussing this with jono yesterday and thought Alpha Des Obeaux was interesting at 33/1 although we did move past him quite quickly. I was trying to nail down Davy Russell's ride and assumed he'd be on The Storyteller and then didn't go back to think about ADO! One of the negatives for (The Storyteller) is the stat about not having a highest rating over the trip of 3m... so technically we don't know if he has the class over this trip yet?

The trends based case for Singlefarmpayment backs up quite an obvious appeal for the horse who was many people's long term target... and was my first play in the race...so happy to see him 'score highly'

...but you've made me go back to Alpha Des Obeaux... I was a HUGE fan the year he didn't win the RSA - was convinced he'd be in the places that day and maybe that has tempered my enthusiasm? He does look to be a notch below the top class which doesn't make him a standout in terms of ability but then again, we're talking about the Ultima and not the Gold Cup....

I am really tempted by 33/1 e/w with WH now.
 
Sorry lads, I've had my head stuck in the Clos Bros.

Hurdle ratings are included Un Temp Pour Tout, Holywell, Bensalem, Chief Dan George all had either won or placed in a grade 1 hurdle over 3m.
 
jono said:
Good to hear...I expect another equally impressive break down of that race then :p
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You might well get one tomorrow morning but my little write up will have to for now.
 
Kevloaf said:
I am really tempted by 33/1 e/w with WH now.
Click to expand...

My only reservation with Alpha des Obeaux is the fact he now seems to have fallen into the category of a 'Gigginstown, run him in every possible staying chase under the sun and hope for the best' kind of horse!

7 runs this season from October is a lot and he has become an in and out horse where you are not quite sure which version of the horse is going to turn up. Add in his previous burst blood vessel issues in the past then that would be a worry? It doesn't look like that has re-occured this season yet from what i'm aware but it's something that will likely do so at some point.

That said his 2nd behind Total Recall, winning the Clonmel Oil Chase (beating Balko des Flos and A Toi Phil) and Christmas Chase run at Leopardstown (hampered) read well. He's been running in Gold Cup trials and like you say Kev it's the Ultima not the Gold Cup that he'll be running in

Need to check over his form again and see if there's any pattern or criteria that is best suited...
 
jono said:
My only reservation with Alpha des Obeaux is the fact he now seems to have fallen into the category of a 'Gigginstown, run him in every possible staying chase under the sun and hope for the best' kind of horse!

7 runs this season from October is a lot and he has become an in and out horse where you are not quite sure which version of the horse is going to turn up. Add in his previous burst blood vessel issues in the past then that would be a worry? It doesn't look like that has re-occured this season yet from what i'm aware but it's something that will likely do so at some point.

That said his 2nd behind Total Recall, winning the Clonmel Oil Chase (beating Balko des Flos and A Toi Phil) and Christmas Chase run at Leopardstown (hampered) read well. He's been running in Gold Cup trials and like you say Kev it's the Ultima not the Gold Cup that he'll be running in

Need to check over his form again and see if there's any pattern or criteria that is best suited...
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That's my concern too. SFP looks the selection...but, i'd love them to run Snow Falcon in this. He is open to 9-10lbs improvement over fences, based his hurdle form (exactly what Folski's stat shows you want). He's in good form this year in some hot 2m4f chases on soft. He's run well at Cheltenham in hot 3m hurdles. At 16s, he's a great price. But someone said earlier he's not going to run??
 
TCH29 said:
That's my concern too. SFP looks the selection...but, i'd love them to run Snow Falcon in this....... But someone said earlier he's not going to run??
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That was said but I am not sure the connections have decided. He ran well in the Flogas and I think is tailor made for the handicaps off this mark; my only concern about this race is the distance. He may be best just short of three miles. Will be on him wherever he runs and hope it's one of the handicaps but they may just be tempted to go for the JLT if Monalee stays in the RSA. Based on the fact they may want to wait to see how everything plays out, and the distance on the more challenging New course, I would think the Plate is the more likely.
 
Kevloaf said:
If you follow trends at all, I think that is superb 'tipping'. Well done Folski, yet another good post:encouragement:

I was discussing this with jono yesterday and thought Alpha Des Obeaux was interesting at 33/1 although we did move past him quite quickly. I was trying to nail down Davy Russell's ride and assumed he'd be on The Storyteller and then didn't go back to think about ADO! One of the negatives for (The Storyteller) is the stat about not having a highest rating over the trip of 3m... so technically we don't know if he has the class over this trip yet?

The trends based case for Singlefarmpayment backs up quite an obvious appeal for the horse who was many people's long term target... and was my first play in the race...so happy to see him 'score highly'

...but you've made me go back to Alpha Des Obeaux... I was a HUGE fan the year he didn't win the RSA - was convinced he'd be in the places that day and maybe that has tempered my enthusiasm? He does look to be a notch below the top class which doesn't make him a standout in terms of ability but then again, we're talking about the Ultima and not the Gold Cup....

I am really tempted by 33/1 e/w with WH now.
Click to expand...

Kev - ADO bled in his RSA so if that run puts you of slightly I think you can mark it up.
 
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