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Stayers Hurdle 2020

I couldn't have had Paisley Park despite watching him win at the track at Haydock this time last year... so definitely worth looking back at.

25/1 each way is probably a nice looking poke, although he's probably going to meet Paisley Park in the Cleeve before we get to Chelt and then he might not look as exciting (or may be a price on that day....)
 
'He came back in from his hols bigger than ever and it's taken quite a bit of work to get the fat off him!'

Emma Lavelle discusses Paisley Park's return in this week's @RPWeekender - but has a warning for anyone thinking of backing him at Newbury
 
Kevloaf said:
How many horses have come back from having a fibrillating heart? (I have no idea)

Sprinter Sacre did but was never as good.... if Bright Forecast comes back but isn't quite as good as he was that'd leave him well short for a stayers hurdle.
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I have a long term interest in equine conditions - atrial fibrillation is a common condition that horses supposedly recover from.
However, despite the obvious example of Sprinter Sacre (and his Ch Ch win was more to do with the moment rather than the remarkable recovery to his former form), I would be very wary of any horse at the highest level to achieve its previous performance. I personally avoid backing horses over the age of 6 or 7 that have a generally perceived recoverable injury, and make a come back, although See More Business was one where I did successfully break that rule.
The one horse I am watching with interest is Labaik but perhaps I am allowing my head to rule my scientific heart - but then why else are we here?
 
I didn’t think Labaik was ever injured was he? I just it was he unpredictable temperament and dodgy owners that limited his appearances after his SNH win??
 
The King Pimm said:
I didn’t think Labaik was ever injured was he? I just it was he unpredictable temperament and dodgy owners that limited his appearances after his SNH win??
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Got injured at punchestown ‘17 which was described as career threatening at the time.
 
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Stable Tour Updates

Emitom
5g Gold Well - Avenging Angel
The Spero Partnership Ltd
1/11112-
RPR 149h OR 147h
The hock infection he picked up towards the end of October when just a week or so off a run has cleared up now and he's back cantering again. All being well he'll go to Cheltenham for the Relkeel Hurdle on January 1 over 2m4f, and if he's not ready for that we'll wait for the Cleeve at the end of the month. If he steps up like I think he could, the Stayers' Hurdle is the sort of race we should be aiming for as he was not far off a 150-rated novice and there's every chance he could be better again this season.
 
Stable Tour Updates

Paisley Park
7g Oscar - Presenting Shares
Andrew Gemmell
0/11111-
RPR 172h OR 169h
He came in a little later than last year, looking a bit bigger, and he's taken quite a bit of getting fit, but he's been to Newbury twice now and done some nice schooling at home, so he's ready to start at Newbury this weekend. If all goes well there his programme afterwards maps itself out and it would be Ascot, Cheltenham's trials day, the Cheltenham Festival and Punchestown. That's not asking much, is it?
 
Borisfox said:
I have a long term interest in equine conditions - atrial fibrillation is a common condition that horses supposedly recover from.
However, despite the obvious example of Sprinter Sacre (and his Ch Ch win was more to do with the moment rather than the remarkable recovery to his former form), I would be very wary of any horse at the highest level to achieve its previous performance. I personally avoid backing horses over the age of 6 or 7 that have a generally perceived recoverable injury, and make a come back, although See More Business was one where I did successfully break that rule.
The one horse I am watching with interest is Labaik but perhaps I am allowing my head to rule my scientific heart - but then why else are we here?
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Thanks Boris. :encouragement:


Interesting angle to have in your armoury!
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Is it stretching it to compare Stoney Mountain with Paisley Park at this stage?

His Aintree win and today's win at Haydock were races won by PP last season. Today's race is renowned for being win by talented horses (Dynaste, Grand Crus, Paisley Park etc). He is rated a fair bit below PP at this stage but looks to be on a steep upward curve.

Could he progress into a stayers contender? 25/1 is slightly shorter than I was hoping for but he is slightly interesting.
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WH have got Stoney Mountain at 66/1, 75/1 boosted, which I've added 1pt EW.

Biggest concern would be after the race the owner suggested he'll be going over fences from here on...

Winning trainer Daly said: "I did think he would go well on the ground when after the first race I saw Sam Twiston-Davies and he said it was good, good to soft. That really helped and didn't do us any harm.

"He loved the trip. He ran here over three miles last year and got a bit stuck in the ground. But he is a very straightforward horse, owned and bred by Trevor (Hemmings).

"Knowing Mr Hemmnigs he will (now) be saying fences, fences, fences and we will have to discuss it. But he is obviously a really tough little horse and he loves racing and how good he is will be as much in his head as well as anything else."
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He's also not acted at the track twice now, both in the Bumper and the Albert Bartlett, though he wouldn't be the first to do so especially in the latter. Obviously wasn't the case in the AB but the new course should suit him with the long straight and only 2 hurdles if he were to line up here.

Hopefully they may well have a slight re-think since the initial comments have a go at one of the grade one trials. Despite connections he's also not the biggest so they could always revert if not quite successful.

I still struggle to see anything troubling Paisley Park so it really is just big ew prices i'm looking at. With my initial hope of Emitom as an each way price meeting a small setback my liking for him as a bet has decreased so thought SM was worth a go at the price.

Olly Murphy has also said today that there's a chance Thomas Darby could revert to hurdles and that the Relkeel could be an option. He's not priced up yet and i'd want at least 40's but one to look out for possibly.
 
Birchdale jumped like a donkey, within the realms that he ends up back over the smaller obstacles this year?

33/1 (with cashout) is the only possible way you'd want to play it and that's pretty risky as they'll probably just suspend if he doesn't 'flop' again.

And if he does flop again is he one to watch?




Not a bet, but he's on my radar at least as the over bet chaser coming back to this division that we get excited about every year :p
 
Kevloaf said:
Birchdale jumped like a donkey, within the realms that he ends up back over the smaller obstacles this year?

33/1 (with cashout) is the only possible way you'd want to play it and that's pretty risky as they'll probably just suspend if he doesn't 'flop' again.

And if he does flop again is he one to watch?




Not a bet, but he's on my radar at least as the over bet chaser coming back to this division that we get excited about every year :p
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Coral cup more likely.
 
Paisley Park
The Worlds End
Unowhatimeanharry
Beer Goggles
Thistlecrack

What a race that is tomorrow at Newbury.
 
Ballybeen said:
Paisley Park
The Worlds End
Unowhatimeanharry
Beer Goggles
Thistlecrack

What a race that is tomorrow at Newbury.
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Will be a tough ask giving Weight to Harry and The Crack. Have a feeling Thistlecrack will turn Paisley over. Added him to Stayers portfolio. 33's.
 
Lobos said:
Will be a tough ask giving Weight to Harry and The Crack. Have a feeling Thistlecrack will turn Paisley over. Added him to Stayers portfolio. 33's.
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No chance, he'll be 12
 
Lobos said:
Will be a tough ask giving Weight to Harry and The Crack. Have a feeling Thistlecrack will turn Paisley over. Added him to Stayers portfolio. 33's.
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He doesn't give weight to Harry. Personally think even a reasonably fit PP will win this no bother.
 
If PP is to be beaten it'll be in these sort of races small fields could be run slowly and tactically and we know PP hits a flat spot. I expect him to win but think he's more vulnerable tomorrow than he is in the Stayers.
 
Lobos said:
Will be a tough ask giving Weight to Harry and The Crack. Have a feeling Thistlecrack will turn Paisley over. Added him to Stayers portfolio. 33's.
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Pretty sure he used the race as a kG prep last year and was well beaten.

*******
Correction. 2 years ago.
 
Scooby91 said:
Pretty sure he used the race as a kG prep last year and was well beaten.

*******
Correction. 2 years ago.
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Think the Stayers will be the plan if he wins tomorrow. Don't think he would be competitive in this year's KG.
 
The World’s End is 25-1 for the Stayers. I think that is too big. Does anyone know what the plans are? i.e. is the plan to stay over Hurdles now they’ve returned to this discipline? I always remember his very promising performance in the Albert Bartlett when he came down when coming through. He used to be ground dependant but I don’t think that’s the case anymore now that he’s strengthened up. I would definitely have a pop at the 25-1 if I knew continuing over hurdles was the plan.
 
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