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Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 2020

Glad Japan is back below 20/1 - that 40/1 I highlighted was way too much of an over reaction.

I'll cash my 22/1 and 20/1 as 100% and have him running at 40/1.




I hope Enable wins now, or Rabihaah of course as she's still live.

Stradivarius 2nd favourite for the Arc, sweet Lord.
 
I do think it's fixed for Enable to win . Enable being smashed into short fav, Love being pulled (AOB paid off?) and now a great draw. The flat season has struggled to create any enthusiasm in light of Covid and could do with a massive shot in the arm before it ends. Superstar Enable winning will provide that.
 
Lobos said:
I do think it's fixed for Enable to win . Enable being smashed into short fav, Love being pulled (AOB paid off?) and now a great draw. The flat season has struggled to create any enthusiasm in light of Covid and could do with a massive shot in the arm before it ends. Superstar Enable winning will provide that.
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I've seen some conspiracy theories in my time, but this might just top the lot. Lobos are you seriously saying that connections from all over the world have forged an alliance and agreed to fix the richest race in Europe so that a 5/4 favourite can win and give the public a pick me up?

P.S. I am an enable backer, but would have much much much preferred to see Love winning it.
 
Easywork said:
I've seen some conspiracy theories in my time, but this might just top the lot. Lobos are you seriously saying that connections from all over the world have forged an alliance and agreed to fix the richest race in Europe so that a 5/4 favourite can win and give the public a pick me up?

P.S. I am an enable backer, but would have much much much preferred to see Love winning it.
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Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. About time we had another Frankie fix.....after all it's been over 24 years since they let him win on Fujiyama Crest to achieve his magnificent 7.

I was in the shop that day and only joined the party after his 4th win. The treble paid a nice bit but it could have been so much better
 
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Quevega said:
Stradivarius looks way too obvious now.
Surely it has to suit this horse, especially if they go a decent gallop.
The draw not so important to him, as likely to be held up now.
And try and reel them in up the straight.
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Trouncing a tiring Nayef Road over 2m4f isn't quite the same as winning an Arc over a mile shorter. On everything he has shown over shorter distances he is much too short.

By the way don't you think Aidan would have run Love if he thought she was going to act on the ground? I think we found out the answer to Sunday's question today.
 
Lobos said:
I do think it's fixed for Enable to win . Enable being smashed into short fav, Love being pulled (AOB paid off?) and now a great draw. The flat season has struggled to create any enthusiasm in light of Covid and could do with a massive shot in the arm before it ends. Superstar Enable winning will provide that.
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Lol, what a load of cobblers.

AOB/Coolmore paid off......like they need the money
 
kinloch brae said:
Trouncing a tiring Nayef Road over 2m4f isn't quite the same as winning an Arc over a mile shorter. On everything he has shown over shorter distances he is much too short.

By the way don't you think Aidan would have run Love if he thought she was going to act on the ground? I think we found out the answer to Sunday's question today.
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He is too short, for sure.
But he has also done far more in his career than beat Nayef Road. The versatility and consistency is hard to knock, and if he was ever to win an arc, then this renewal and the likely conditions, and pace. Then this is it.

As regards Love. It sounded to me like he thought asking her to race on that ground would probably finish her for the season, and they have other options, financially better ones at that. Which makes some sense, especially if they have the US and then Asia on their minds. It seemed like they will likely run her 2 or 3 more times. Ideally.

So it was not so much in their minds that she'd definitely be beat.
He also made a point of saying she did very well on what he thought was as near to soft ground at York.

We 100% did not find the answer to Sundays question today.
But if you want to clasp at something. Hold tight.

I've always conceded that extremes of ground carries risks. So Heavy would naturally have been a concern.
But the difference between Soft and good ground would not have worried me for a minute, in this case in particular.
 
Gold Trip the each way value at 56-1 (Hills with boost) to finish in first 4.

Finished strongly to beat In Swoop (best price 10-1) by a length on soft ground over 1m 3f and only went down by a short head to the same horse on good ground when they were beaten 2 1/2 lengths by Mogul on good over 1m 4f at Longchamp last month.

Reckon the heavy ground will play into the hands of the 3-year-olds getting the weight allowance.

Gold Trip drawn 9 which is a bit wider than ideal but not a disaster.

Raabihaah must also have a very decent chance at the weights/draw but coming to the party late I can't get excited about 16-1 as an each way proposition.

1pt each way Gold Trip
 
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Hills have pushed Gold Trip out to 75-1 with boost - I've obviously got em running for cover.

So, chocs away....

Another 1pt each way Gold Trip at 75-1.

Convinced myself he's a better horse in testing conditions and heavy ground is more likely to throw up a shock result.

Who else remembers Jet Ski Lady sluicing through the mud to win The Oaks at 50-1?

Gold Trip doesn't even have to beat Enable - fourth place will do nicely.
 
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I have lost on both Love and Raabihah and now having serious doubts about In Swoop who has halved in price this week. He was the obvious soft ground option given both sides of his pedigree. That said his action doesn't shout heavy ground and perhaps the soft ground just brings his stamina into play? I have a nasty suspicion he will be too slow even on this ground.

I can't remember a year where I could find so few positives about the runners. The negatives are easy but something has to win although had I not already placed the bets I wouldn't be looking to back anything on the day. It is just too difficult.
 
All the runners trained by Aiden, Donnacha and Joseph have been withdrawn for Sunday.

Serpentine
Japan
Mogul

The three in the Arc.
 
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On itv this morning , they said they had contaminated feed.
But also said the horses were fine ., ??.
 
jack1092 said:
Do you think they'll ride PK from the front again, hence the 2 placeS?
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Fascinating question Jack. Ideally I think they will certainly want to be handy coming out of the bend then put the pressure on early, so, yes. But whether he'll have the stamina over the trip in that ground remains to be seen. Of course he might be absolutely done well before then. Even with all the doubts though, I couldn't ignore a Fabre horse of his calibre.

When I placed the bet it was 16/1 3 places or 22/1 2 places.
 
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So, no runners or Donnach, Aidan or Joseph at the Arc meeting tomorrow.

What are bookmakers going to do about that, for bets before the 48-hour decs?

Pocket the cash? - because of a feed technicality.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
So, no runners or Donnach, Aidan or Joseph at the Arc meeting tomorrow.

What are bookmakers going to do about that, for bets before the 48-hour decs?

Pocket the cash?
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I'd imagine so Saxon
 
Can anyone let me know what bookies do here if you get refunded. I'm intrigued, wasnt on any of them but could make a huge impact on my future investments and decison making especially with ante post betting!
 
Saxon Warrior said:
So, no runners or Donnach, Aidan or Joseph at the Arc meeting tomorrow.

What are bookmakers going to do about that, for bets before the 48-hour decs?

Pocket the cash? - because of a feed technicality.
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There shouldn't be any refunds but no doubt some of usual suspects will cloudy the waters.
 
kinloch brae said:
There shouldn't be any refunds but no doubt some of usual suspects will cloudy the waters.
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Agreed.

Don't see why any of them should refund. You pays your money and you take your chance
 
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