Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 2020

[Saxon Warrior]

Must be tempting for them...

What are Charlie/Godolphin's other options for each race I wonder.

Godolphin have Barney Roy and Victor Ludorum quoted in the Champion Stakes market, at 20/1 and 25/1.

Victor Ludorum is the only one they have in the Arc other than Ghaiyyath.

I hope he goes to Paris, and all of the other favs come through their trials victorious, ready for the race of the season.

 

[Kevloaf]

After wins at York for two of the top 3 in the betting:

 

[Kevloaf]

Live: 10.2 pts and -0.6 pts in cash outs overall

20/1 - Love (1.25 pt e/w)
25/1 - Ghiayyath (1 pt e/w)
33/1 - Raabihah (1 pt e/w)
22/1 and 40/1 - Japan (1 pt e/w and 0.5 pt e/w)
181/1 - Fleeting (0.7pts)




Interesting that Love has gone favourite after the Yorkshire Oaks which was weaker than the previous rae she won?... all those 3 year old allowances she'll get clearly not missed by the market.

I wouldn't be backing her at that price that's for sure, but very easy to be pleased with her at 20/1 (obviously).


Looking like being a great race still, let's hope they all make it.

 

[Craigy14]

Mishriff another 3 year old of obvious interest, still 14/1 with sky, might take a punt.
Use to the french soft ground as well.

It is shaping to be a belter!

 

[jack1092]

Mishriff another 3 year old of obvious interest, still 14/1 with sky, might take a punt.
Use to the french soft ground as well.

It is shaping to be a belter!

He's not certain to go though which would be a worry i'd say!

 

[Quevega]

Live: 10.2 pts and -0.6 pts in cash outs overall

20/1 - Love (1.25 pt e/w)
25/1 - Ghiayyath (1 pt e/w)
33/1 - Raabihah (1 pt e/w)
22/1 and 40/1 - Japan (1 pt e/w and 0.5 pt e/w)
181/1 - Fleeting (0.7pts)




Interesting that Love has gone favourite after the Yorkshire Oaks which was weaker than the previous rae she won?... all those 3 year old allowances she'll get clearly not missed by the market.

I wouldn't be backing her at that price that's for sure, but very easy to be pleased with her at 20/1 (obviously).


Looking like being a great race still, let's hope they all make it.

Think you might have the 1,2,3 there.
Not sure about Japan obviously, older colts usually have no chance unless they're really really good (or you're fucking waldgeist)

Very difficult to see the two fillies not beating the older mare.
And Ghayyaith looks awesome this year. Doubt I'll back him for this race though (even though I've had some excellent returns off him this season)
Lump job on Love on the day for me (depending on the draw a little bit)

 

[Craigy14]

He's not certain to go though which would be a worry i'd say!

Aye true Jack.

Hopefully the fact he’s taken in the 2 French group 1’s as a good sign. Also the 2 Gosden fillies today didn’t look up to much so he may want another dart running with Enable and Strad.

 

[7barrows]

What do you think Ghaiyyaths most likely target is -
would you have the Ascot 10F champ stakes above the arc 14F? Would they really take him over to US for the breeders Turf 12F ?

I would have it in this order , anyone think different?

1st Ascot Qipco Champion stakes 10F
2nd Breeders Cup Turf 12 F
3rd ARC 12F
4th Irish champion stakes ( last option becuase perhaps too soon?)

 

[Stormy Antarctic]

What do you think Ghaiyyaths most likely target is -
would you have the Ascot 10F champ stakes above the arc 14F? Would they really take him over to US for the breeders Turf 12F ?

I would have it in this order , anyone think different?

1st Ascot Qipco Champion stakes 10F
2nd Breeders Cup Turf 12 F
3rd ARC 12F
4th Irish champion stakes ( last option becuase perhaps too soon?)

I think if it’s no worse than soft then they’ll go for the arc. They seem to think he’s a much different horse to the one he was on arc day last year. I think Buick maybe said this but can’t seem to find the quote on it.

 

[Stormy Antarctic]

The option of the Arc is there again, although in his last two starts we've seen how good he is over ten furlongs. There are plenty of options but, of course, I would love to go for the Arc.

"It's the race we would all love to win. We didn't run in it last year to make up the numbers. Hopefully, we might have a contender."

I’ve found this, it’s not the one I was looking for but Appleby seems up for it

 

[Kevloaf]

I would have to agree he does seem a different horse this year... but I am almost certainly clouded by having 25/1 about him.


If he did go for the Ascot race I'd back him though to win my stake back and a bit more - he sets a standard on all the known form this season over that trip.

 

[7barrows]

I would have to agree he does seem a different horse this year... but I am almost certainly clouded by having 25/1 about him.


If he did go for the Ascot race I'd back him though to win my stake back and a bit more - he sets a standard on all the known form this season over that trip.

Good to soft ground shouldnt bother him too much either he just doesnt want a bog.. i guess the prize money will play a factor

 

[Saxon Warrior]

The Champion Stakes is the fav for sure, but I would love to see him in the Irish Champion and/or the Arc against deeper opposition.

 

[7barrows]

The Champion Stakes is the fav for sure, but I would love to see him in the Irish Champion and/or the Arc against deeper opposition.

William hill had him priced up at 5/1 for the champ stakes and quickly cut him 3/1 now. Managed to get a through away double in with PP As I think it was worth the risk at an 11/1 double!

 

[7barrows]

Ghaiyyath starting to drift on the arc exchange... usually means an announcement is imminent !

 

[kinloch brae]

Ghaiyyath was so bad last year I wouldn't give him a second look. Assuming he doesn't flop again in the meantime I would aim him at the Champion Stakes and hope it doesn't turn soft. Over a mile and a half I think proper Group 1 horses will just run him down.

I haven't backed anything at this stage but Raabihah and Pao Alto would be two I would be most interested in. Unfortunately, I can't boost Raabihah to 40/1 and Pao Alto is only quoted in one place. With so runners in the French Derby you will need luck in running but Pao Alto is the only one with the sort of pace that might trouble Victor Ludorum.

Is there anyone who hasn't backed Ghaiyyath for the Arc who actually thinks he will run in the race?

Raabihah has shortened up massively since I last posted. I can't imagine that many being too interested at 10/1. She is almost priced up as if she has won the Vermeille. Her actual form doesn't warrant anything shorter than 20 or even 25/1. Lose the Vermeille and she is a million. A lot of trust being placed in the trainer comments.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Is there anyone who hasn't backed Ghaiyyath for the Arc who actually thinks he will run in the race?

Raabihah has shortened up massively since I last posted. I can't imagine that many being too interested at 10/1. She is almost priced up as if she has won the Vermeille. Her actual form doesn't warrant anything shorter than 20 or even 25/1. Lose the Vermeille and she is a million. A lot of trust being placed in the trainer comments.

The trainer has wasted no opportunity to state she is the best filly in France, and better than her Group 1 stablemate.

I don’t think Ghaiyyath will go.

 

[kinloch brae]

Is there anyone who hasn't backed Ghaiyyath for the Arc who actually thinks he will run in the race?

Raabihah has shortened up massively since I last posted. I can't imagine that many being too interested at 10/1. She is almost priced up as if she has won the Vermeille. Her actual form doesn't warrant anything shorter than 20 or even 25/1. Lose the Vermeille and she is a million. A lot of trust being placed in the trainer comments.

Her form wasn't good enough and the price was all about a combination of trainer comments and an expectation that she would improve for a step up in trip. That theory has been blown out the water and at no stage did she look like winning the Vermeille. I am hardly going to be surprised at the dreadful ride she got but even allowing for that she isn't going to get close to winning an Arc. She is Group 2 level, at best.

 

[YoungHustler]

Her form wasn't good enough and the price was all about a combination of trainer comments and an expectation that she would improve for a step up in trip. That theory has been blown out the water and at no stage did she look like winning the Vermeille. I am hardly going to be surprised at the dreadful ride she got but even allowing for that she isn't going to get close to winning an Arc. She is Group 2 level, at best.

I would disagree with the last statement. She was half a length from winning the oaks and her top owner waxes lyrical about her. I have no monetary interest in her but would not give up up on her. Today was only a prep but I would still have Love and Enable above her in the Arc.

 

[kinloch brae]

I would disagree with the last statement. She was half a length from winning the oaks and her top owner waxes lyrical about her. I have no monetary interest in her but would not give up up on her. Today was only a prep but I would still have Love and Enable above her in the Arc.

Like anyone trainers are quite capable of saying some stupid things and I am afraid that today's performance made his very bullish comments look very foolish. What happens on the track will always be a far better steer than words from those closest to a horse. He was very disappointed when she was beaten in the Diane which was a much better quality race. I dread to think how he felt when she was trounced today. I had backed her for the Arc and would have liked her to have won five lengths on the bridle but you have to be realistic and based on her actual form her price before today was ridiculous. If I had the opportunity I would gladly cash out my bet. Unfortunately, I don't. I would expect Love to beat her at least as far as she beat a poor Oaks field.