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Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 2020

Raabihah got a terrible ride, or a terribly thought out plan that she had all the gears to race past them.

Whichever is true, it’s obvious she can’t win the Arc from the back.

So she would need to be handy and push on in the straight, to see if she is the stayer the trainer thinks she is.

She is going to run, given her prep, but I don’t think she will attract much support now.
 
kinloch brae said:
Her form wasn't good enough and the price was all about a combination of trainer comments and an expectation that she would improve for a step up in trip. That theory has been blown out the water and at no stage did she look like winning the Vermeille. I am hardly going to be surprised at the dreadful ride she got but even allowing for that she isn't going to get close to winning an Arc. She is Group 2 level, at best.
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A little bit of an overreaction here Kinloch in my view. Also why did you back her for the Arc if you hate her jockey so much?

Her price for the Arc was crazy given what she's done, but there's no doubt the Diane has worked out well. The price created an expectation that she should've bolted up on Sunday against very good fillies. Things didn't pan out perfectly, and i wouldn't be too worried about her yet.
 
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jack1092 said:
A little bit of an overreaction here Kinloch in my view. Also why did you back her for the Arc if you hate her jockey so much?

Her price for the Arc was crazy given what she's done, but there's no doubt the Diane has worked out well. The price created an expectation that she should've bolted up on Sunday against very good fillies. Things didn't pan out perfectly, and i wouldn't be too worried about her yet.
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'Hate' isn't a word I would use about anyone.

There are loads of jockeys I would have big doubts about. You can either give up gambling or just make the most of it.

I have said from the outset that the Arc wouldn't be a strong renewal. There was room for something to at least make the frame at a big price. Raabihah fitted the bill in that she was lightly raced and seemingly open to plenty of improvement stepped up in trip. I backed her at 28/1 but I would have needed my head examining to have backed her at 10/1. As I said she was priced as if she had won the Vermeille. Sometimes you just have to hope a horse has enough ability to win despite the jockey. On yesterday's evidence she hasn't. I would be surprised if she is good enough to finish in the six.
 
jack1092 said:
Kev, you making a book makes me slightly intrigued about trying one.

I don't have your 20/1 on Love, f'ing lovely.

I took 8s after the race.

Today's Diane actually made me considering adding Peaceful, 50s on betfair, main issue is how likely she is to show up there. I think she'd stay a mile 1/2. Love + Magician ahead of her.

Im going to take the available on Franconia as well- 270. Now, chances of her running here are pretty big, but she's 11/8 during the week + at Enable's age, who knows? She might not improve for today (likely she will). If that happens there's a tiny squeak we could see Franconia end up here. Logician also another one that's ahead of her. Lucky it's tiny money!


Love 8/1 (win) 15pts
Peaceful 50.0 (win) 2pts
Raabihah 41.5 (win) 2pts
Franconia 270.0 (win) 2pts


I'll maybe add a couple more and diversify the book away from 3yo fillies :devilish: They can't + won't all show up.

Currently my fun book.
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Love still looking an ok bet.
Peaceful probably 100s to run in it.
Raabihah spoilt the party a little finishing 2nd, but i still wouldn't give up on her as the race didn't pan out ideal.
Franconia not a mission.

The one i'm marginally tempted to add is Magical at 42.0. Personally i'd be surprised if she didn't rock up here, and Seamie's quotes after her win over Ghaiyyath backed that up. It's possible she'll have had her "Gold Cup" at the weekend and her profile doesn't scream "2020 Arc Winner" but she's surely a little overpriced. She did go off 19/1 last year having won the same race beforehand, but only beating Magic Wand.
 
jack1092 said:
Love still looking an ok bet.
Peaceful probably 100s to run in it.
Raabihah spoilt the party a little finishing 2nd, but i still wouldn't give up on her as the race didn't pan out ideal.
Franconia not a mission.

The one i'm marginally tempted to add is Magical at 42.0. Personally i'd be surprised if she didn't rock up here, and Seamie's quotes after her win over Ghaiyyath backed that up. It's possible she'll have had her "Gold Cup" at the weekend and her profile doesn't scream "2020 Arc Winner" but she's surely a little overpriced. She did go off 19/1 last year having won the same race beforehand, but only beating Magic Wand.
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65.0 now. Surely that indicates she’s not going to run
 
jack1092 said:
You'd think so- where else does she go bar missing it completely and head Ascot>BC.

Can't see her in a Opera
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Would’ve thought a break followed by Champion Day and the Breeders Cup. Simply because they have Love for the Arc and the fact that Magical has been beaten by Enable over the trip four times already.
 
In Swoop 25/1 ew

Snatched second when 2.5l behind Mogul on good ground Sunday but won the German Derby on GS and has won on soft too so pretty versatile.
 
Kevloaf said:
Live: 10.2 pts and -0.6 pts in cash outs overall

20/1 - Love (1.25 pt e/w)
25/1 - Ghiayyath (1 pt e/w)
33/1 - Raabihah (1 pt e/w)
22/1 and 40/1 - Japan (1 pt e/w and 0.5 pt e/w)
181/1 - Fleeting (0.7pts)




Interesting that Love has gone favourite after the Yorkshire Oaks which was weaker than the previous rae she won?... all those 3 year old allowances she'll get clearly not missed by the market.

I wouldn't be backing her at that price that's for sure, but very easy to be pleased with her at 20/1 (obviously).


Looking like being a great race still, let's hope they all make it.
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With the cashouts and non runners I'm starting the race at -3.7 pts

Left with:

20/1 - Love (1.25 pt e/w)
33/1 - Raabihah (1 pt e/w)
22/1 and 40/1 - Japan (1 pt e/w and 0.5 pt e/w)


Their current prices are (11/4, 14/1 and 33/1)


Not the best ante post position I've ever had myself in, but happy to let them ride, and don't see any value in the market as it stands now - so I'd be happy enough leaving it.

Having backed Enable (Arc) with Altior (QMCC) for the last three years, there is a chance I have a token bet on that. I love Stradivarius as a horse and won't be upset if he wins but whilst he's 3rd favourite I think that just highlights that this is a very winnable race and I hope my Mares can do it.

Witnessing Enable winning without having an money on her will be alright too, it's a big enough moment to not need to have backed her... (unless I do the Altior double), which I might still - probably will but only 0.5 points.
 
Really hoping Enable wins and creates history. She is a fabulous filly, probably the best I've ever seen. Was fortunate to be there to see her win her 2nd Arc and it would be the perfect end to a brilliant career if she can bow out in glory and win for a 3rd time.
 
Very Unfortunate for Love backers not to get a run for the money, even with the doubts.
Sounds like they would have waited for the draw and the ground on the day, but the loss of Ryan being able to ride was a factor ???
The last bit I don't get. They just jocked him off Magical the last day and she ran her best race.

More importantly Kinloch, we don't get to find out who was talking bollocks.
I'll settle for the fact that most of us do some of the time, some more than others. and some a little less so.
The skill is sifting through the Bollocks that's been talked to try and find the Dog's Bollocks.
Officially the best Bollocks in the world.
Now that's talking Bollocks.:encouragement:

Glad I held off with Love. Was very close as she drifted as was sure they'd at least let her take her chance.
Lost the bet on Telecaster though.

Now on Mogul 1pt 25-1
Sovereign 1pt 210-1
Both been hovering around those prices all week. On the Exchange.
 
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Quevega said:
More importantly Kinloch, we don't get to find out who was talking bollocks.
I'll settle for the fact that most of us do some of the time, some more than others. and some a little less so.
The skill is sifting thorough the Bollocks that's been talked to try and find the Dog's Bollocks.
Officially the best Bollocks in the world.
Now that's talking Bollocks.:encouragement:
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You do make me laugh sometimes Quevega. Thank you.:encouragement:

I managed to lay off Love last night and now just have an EW interest in Sottsass but I expect and hope that Enable can win.
 
When I seen Serpentine had been supplemented for the Arc I went on to my PP account and stuck few pound each way at 16/1. 12/1 I see now this morning with PP.
 
Quevega said:
Very Unfortunate for Love backers not to get a run for the money, even with the doubts.
Sounds like they would have waited for the draw and the ground on the day, but the loss of Ryan being able to ride was a factor ???
The last bit I don't get. They just jocked him off Magical the last day and she ran her best race.

More importantly Kinloch, we don't get to find out who was talking bollocks.
I'll settle for the fact that most of us do some of the time, some more than others. and some a little less so.
The skill is sifting through the Bollocks that's been talked to try and find the Dog's Bollocks.
Officially the best Bollocks in the world.
Now that's talking Bollocks.:encouragement:

Glad I held off with Love. Was very close as she drifted as was sure they'd at least let her take her chance.
Lost the bet on Telecaster though.

Now on Mogul 1pt 25-1
Sovereign 1pt 210-1
Both been hovering around those prices all week. On the Exchange.
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Ive done the same with Sovereign, Q, at similar prices on BFX.
There is no standout AOB runner, they should all do whats best for their own chances.

....and now we have Mickael Barzalona riding him.
 
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Updated market:


Enable 5/4
Stradivarius 13/2
Sottsass 9/1
In Swoop 11/1
Serpentine 12/1
Raabihah 14/1
Japan 14/1
Mogul 16/1
Japan (IRE) 18/1
Persian King 20/1
Way To Paris 40/1
Gold Trip 40 /1
Deirdre 66/1
Sovereign 100/1
Chachnak 150/1
Royal Julius 200/1
 
The draw puts me off Serpentine. In Swoop has a good draw and will relish the soft ground. Every ml of rain that falls is in his favour.

He might not be good enough but he'll definitely go on the ground. I can't be backing Enable at that price on likely bottomless ground.
 
Stradivarius looks way too obvious now.
Surely it has to suit this horse, especially if they go a decent gallop.
The draw not so important to him, as likely to be held up now.
And try and reel them in up the straight.
 
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