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Mares Hurdle 2019

Scooby91 said:
I wouldn't agree.theres no way she ran to form against yours. Even conceding the weight.

I Was merely pointing out that's why the mares may be doubtful for good thyne tara. As will be soft enough for the 1st day.

Why would you run her in the county when she stays the trip of the mares. She wouldn't get an allowance against the geldings. Even a place in the mares would be valuable on her page for breeding. And she's more than capable of placing.
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Is there a reason why she no way ran to form vs RDC, but ran to form vs SI?
 
jack1092 said:
Is there a reason why she no way ran to form vs RDC, but ran to form vs SI?
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Yes shes been beat on the bridle twice by stormy Ireland.


And yes. because she smashed up awayinthe west who was 2nd. By 9L on the bridle, the start beforehand.

This race was over 2m6. She underperformed. Diddnt get home, And finished behind awayinthewest
 
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Don't get why Willie would step up GTT in trip at the age of 9 after going through her career over 2m - 2m4f, unless to set it up for a stable mate. She was performing and doing perfectly well prior to not needing the extra trip. I only have one explanation.

She would beat RDC over shorter.
 
Paul townends explanation after the race.

"Barry (Geraghty, on Awayinthewest) kept Ruby (Good Thyne Tara) good and honest up front and we were able to mop up the pieces up the straight."
 
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Did Elliot mention anything there in regards to Missy Tata's plans? Possible for this? Missed the interview.
 
The more I look at this race, the more against BDD I am.

If you accept AJ didnt run her race last year, which Im sure we'd all agree on... then BDD has struggled to beat Midnight Tour and won what looks to be a very poor renewal. Her run at Punch was more impressive but its quite possible she improved throughout the season and benefited from the previous runs.

To be as short as he is, without a run this season, regardless of how good Willie is, looks really poor to my eyes.

And I've firmly come round to Stormy Ireland and am annoyed to have missed the bigger prices. But have had a decent bet at 10/1 and 8/1. When you consider AJ and Laurina are still taking a big chunk of the market, its not hard to see SI being 3/1 or so on the day.

My only slight niggle is the trip as she seems a very speedy type and still keen enough and she was absolutely out on her legs when she fell at the last in the Triumph. But hopefully she is a year older and stronger and wont go quite the same gallop! And she definitely seems better on better ground and it was pretty stamina sapping last year.

Even so, that was still a great run in the context of this race.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
The more I look at this race, the more against BDD I am.

If you accept AJ didnt run her race last year, which Im sure we'd all agree on... then BDD has struggled to beat Midnight Tour and won what looks to be a very poor renewal. Her run at Punch was more impressive but its quite possible she improved throughout the season and benefited from the previous runs.

To be as short as he is, without a run this season, regardless of how good Willie is, looks really poor to my eyes.

And I've firmly come round to Stormy Ireland and am annoyed to have missed the bigger prices. But have had a decent bet at 10/1 and 8/1. When you consider AJ and Laurina are still taking a big chunk of the market, its not hard to see SI being 3/1 or so on the day.

My only slight niggle is the trip as she seems a very speedy type and still keen enough and she was absolutely out on her legs when she fell at the last in the Triumph. But hopefully she is a year older and stronger and wont go quite the same gallop! And she definitely seems better on better ground and it was pretty stamina sapping last year.

Even so, that was still a great run in the context of this race.
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Interestingly if stormy Ireland runs and runs in a similar fashion to her normal style.
It provides BDD with a better chance.
Her strength is stamina for sure
 
quevega said:
Interestingly if stormy Ireland runs and runs in a similar fashion to her normal style.
It provides BDD with a better chance.
Her strength is stamina for sure
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yes agree with that quevega. I'm against BDD mostly because of her price.
 
Most seem to be unnecessarily complicating matters... almost all form can be picked apart if you look hard enough. Laurina aside, BDD is considerably considered to be Willie’s best mare and for me will be long odds on to keep her crown if fit and well on the day.
 
Morley Street said:
Most seem to be unnecessarily complicating matters... almost all form can be picked apart if you look hard enough. Laurina aside, BDD is considerably considered to be Willie’s best mare and for me will be long odds on to keep her crown if fit and well on the day.
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How do you know BDD, Laurina aside, is 'considerably considered to be Willie's best mare' MS?
 
Morley Street said:
Most seem to be unnecessarily complicating matters... almost all form can be picked apart if you look hard enough. Laurina aside, BDD is considerably considered to be Willie’s best mare and for me will be long odds on to keep her crown if fit and well on the day.
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agree with all that,
but some won't like to back 7/4 shots at this stage. and each way bets on longer priced horses will appeal more.
But BDD will likely be odds on come the day as this market will likely not have the top two running.
definitely a back now race, whichever method or horse you prefer.

Could obviously go tits up if one of the top two change their mind though.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
How do you know BDD, Laurina aside, is 'considerably considered to be Willie's best mare' MS?
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they've said as much on plenty of occasions, from memory.
 
I think there is no doubt BDD was their best mare last season, but BDD is now 8 and SI still only 5.

Clearly it involves a bit of guesswork to know whether BDD will be the same, or better, or worse at this years Festival.

But it does seem clear SI has improved significantly already this season. She only has 4lb's to find on official ratings and it wouldn't surprise me if she were to find that at Cheltenham. BDD would then have to equal her very best to win the race.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
My only slight niggle is the trip as she seems a very speedy type and still keen enough and she was absolutely out on her legs when she fell at the last in the Triumph. But hopefully she is a year older and stronger and wont go quite the same gallop! And she definitely seems better on better ground and it was pretty stamina sapping last year.

Even so, that was still a great run in the context of this race.
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Her best performance to date, despite not winning the race, was her 4 length defeat by Master Dino in France over 2m 3 1/2f IMO. She did get away with a soft lead, but then she usually does, that was in very soft conditions, so there would be no concern about the trip for me.

Benie Des Dieux 'may' turn up and win, but she's no Quevega IMO, who could do it time and time again off no prep. She's a bigger risk than Stormy Ireland at a much reduced price. I think I'd be looking at Limini over BDD myself out of the Ricci pair.
 
Is now 8?

As if that's a bad thing?

Bang in her prime at 8 isn't she?

5 is 5 ... a notably difficult age?


No way being 5 is better than 8 off level weights (generally speaking)?
 
If you accept AJ didnt run her race last year, which Im sure we'd all agree on... then BDD has struggled to beat Midnight Tour and won what looks to be a very poor renewal. Her run at Punch was more impressive but its quite possible she improved throughout the season and benefited from the previous runs.

She's completely fine off long breaks given her record. Yes she has arguably improved, but i'd have thought that was more down to the level of races allowing her to achieve a higher rating.

I'd argue she might be better racing more prominent. I presume they didnt do it last year because of AJ, perhaps this year she could follow SI. She raced from the front or prominent over fences well.

She's worth taking on at her current price no doubt.
 
I agree CoD... because its a Willie Mullins mare, I think the connection is being made all too easily with Quevega.

Just because they did it so successfully with her, it doesnt follow they can do it again with BDD. She hasn't proved she can come and win a race at the festival on her seasonal debut, yet is being priced as if its not a concern.
 
jack1092 said:
If you accept AJ didnt run her race last year, which Im sure we'd all agree on... then BDD has struggled to beat Midnight Tour and won what looks to be a very poor renewal. Her run at Punch was more impressive but its quite possible she improved throughout the season and benefited from the previous runs.

She's completely fine off long breaks given her record. Yes she has arguably improved, but i'd have thought that was more down to the level of races allowing her to achieve a higher rating.

I'd argue she might be better racing more prominent. I presume they didnt do it last year because of AJ, perhaps this year she could follow SI. She raced from the front or prominent over fences well.

She's worth taking on at her current price no doubt.
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The only times she's won off long breaks have been penalty kicks though, wouldnt you say jack? Its a different kettle of fish coming off the best part of a year off to win at Cheltenham.
 
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