Mares Hurdle 2019

[Scooby91]

One thing we whole heartedly agree upon is she will be an absolute superstar if she can win the champion hurdle this season. One of the best we will have ever seen. Which makes it difficult to believe it will happen for sure.

I agree with that.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

One thing we whole heartedly agree upon is she will be an absolute superstar if she can win the champion hurdle this season. One of the best we will have ever seen. Which makes it difficult to believe it will happen for sure.

I agree with that.

Yeah, me too.

 

[Humble Pie]

I went to bed and we'd sorted this out :highly_amused:

The quick answer form should catch on. That's great haha

Phew brilliant posts guys , feel a tad exhausted lol
If Alan Bleasdale read this forum and penned a best seller where would it filmed?
Multiple locations haha

 

[Scooby91]

One valid question which I'll find interesting.


Assuming Apple's jade runs in the CH.

With a run.

Laurina 14/1 ew CH?
Stormy Ireland 20/1 ew Mares ?

Which is the better bet?

 

[The King Pimm]

I’ve cashed out on my BBD bets for the Mares Hurdle and lumped on Stormy Ireland (basing everything on the basis that AH & Laurina are heading to CH) so hoping your judgements and assessments come to fruition. If they don’t then it’s my own fault for not knowing enough

 

[ComplyOrDie]

One valid question which I'll find interesting.


Assuming Apple's jade runs in the CH.

With a run.

Laurina 14/1 ew CH?
Stormy Ireland 20/1 ew Mares ?

Which is the better bet?

Easy for me still, SI.

Laurina has Buveur D'air (race fit), Apples Jade( race fit), Melon (surely be primed for this one race, despite lacking so far this season, has a neck behind BD as solid form over C&D though), Sharjah (race fit), to compete with, amongst others.

SI will have Limini (race fit, but has been held behind GTT this season, whom SI stuffed already) & Benie Des Dieux (who we haven't seen for 320 days), as her main rivals, I don't see anything else getting involved.

6pts bigger for an easier race, yes please!

 

[monkfish]

I’ve cashed out on my BBD bets for the Mares Hurdle and lumped on Stormy Ireland (basing everything on the basis that AH & Laurina are heading to CH) so hoping your judgements and assessments come to fruition. If they don’t then it’s my own fault for not knowing enough

 

[jack1092]

I’ve cashed out on my BBD bets for the Mares Hurdle and lumped on Stormy Ireland (basing everything on the basis that AH & Laurina are heading to CH) so hoping your judgements and assessments come to fruition. If they don’t then it’s my own fault for not knowing enough

What price did you have on BDD?

 

[The King Pimm]

What price did you have on BDD?

Not very goods odds, she ranged between 2.8 to 3.5 so no great loss. I had her in 2 Lucky bets but other horses were treading water so no big loss. I’ve re-submitted a Willie Mullins Lucky 31 & 63 with Stormy Ireland replacing BBD.

 

[archie]

If they both turn up I don't think that Stormy Ireland will get near Benie Des Dieux.

As part owner of a mare that has comfortably beaten Good Thyne Tara, I wouldn't be going overboard on her as particularly good yardstick.

 

[Quevega]

One valid question which I'll find interesting.


Assuming Apple's jade runs in the CH.

With a run.

Laurina 14/1 ew CH?
Stormy Ireland 20/1 ew Mares ?

Which is the better bet?

Not the best question as the price differs.
And we cannot be sure of the opposition at this stage.
Be easier to answer when decs are known and we know exactly who they are both up against.
Assuming all major rivals turn up then I still couldn't say, as I could see Stormy Ireland getting a place but not winning, and Laurina could win but also finish unplaced.
Both are better bets than mine as I'm on Laurina win only.
But also have apples at 20-1.

 

[Scooby91]

If they both turn up I don't think that Stormy Ireland will get near Benie Des Dieux.

As part owner of a mare that has comfortably beaten Good Thyne Tara, I wouldn't be going overboard on her as particularly good yardstick.

Good thyne tara diddnt run her race against yours over 2m6. She wants decent ground.

 

[The King Pimm]

My concern with BBD, like Penhill, is that your only hope is that she is as good as her last race and if she’s not she/he won’t win. The training tactic fly in the face of logic and by betting on them you are justifying this mad approach but Willie Mullins is a genius trainer and I’m a struggling punter so it’s a complete leap of faith again but this year I’m not going to risk it. Surely he can’t repeat the miracle with BBD & Penhill??

 

[ComplyOrDie]

If they both turn up I don't think that Stormy Ireland will get near Benie Des Dieux.

As part owner of a mare that has comfortably beaten Good Thyne Tara, I wouldn't be going overboard on her as particularly good yardstick.

Take out GTT you still have close form ties with Master Dino & Espoir D'Allen. That's good enough for me anyway.

Benie Des Dieux would rightly be favourite, I wouldn't argue that.

With regards to RDC beating GTT, that was set up for RDC, think you said she's a staying type previously when mentioned, on the other hand that was WPM's first time sending GTT over further than 2m 4f, and she led them all in, set it up perfect for the staying types, not to mention the weight she gave away to them all (11lbs)!

GTT is not a world beater, that much we know, but she come out and won a Grade 3 the next time, after being hammered by SI, and the 2 mares she beat that day were Limini (ahead of SI in the Mares betting) and Elimay (3 places behind SI in the betting) for the mares.

Limini is of interest too though, she showed spark LTO against Presenting Percy, and she looks like she may have been worked towards this race, she also likes Cheltenham.

 

[archie]

Good thyne tara diddnt run her race against yours over 2m6. She wants decent ground.

It was good going and Robin also needs decent ground. It's possible that GTT didn't get the trip because she was too keen but overall I think she's been extremely well placed.

I'd also think that Stormy Ireland would be better at a trip short of the one for this race.

 

[Quevega]

My concern with BBD, like Penhill, is that your only hope is that she is as good as her last race and if she’s not she/he won’t win. The training tactic fly in the face of logic and by betting on them you are justifying this mad approach but Willie Mullins is a genius trainer and I’m a struggling punter so it’s a complete leap of faith again but this year I’m not going to risk it. Surely he can’t repeat the miracle with BBD & Penhill??

How long have you been watching.
He's done it with several horses.
Quevega
Annie Power
Arctic Fire
Thousand Stars
and some more I can't remember at this time.

It's not a leap of faith at all, it's applying logic.
Which might explain why you're struggling

 

[Quevega]

It was good going and Robin also needs decent ground. It's possible that GTT didn't get the trip because she was too keen but overall I think she's been extremely well placed.

I'd also think that Stormy Ireland would be better at a trip short of the one for this race.

Yep, I'd have thought County Hurdle myself, but wouldn't get an allowance (obviously not in the mares either)
Just cannot remember how many mares rated as high that he's puts in big handicaps.

 

[Scooby91]

It was good going and Robin also needs decent ground. It's possible that GTT didn't get the trip because she was too keen but overall I think she's been extremely well placed.

I'd also think that Stormy Ireland would be better at a trip short of the one for this race.

I wouldn't agree.theres no way she ran to form against yours. Even conceding the weight.

I Was merely pointing out that's why the mares may be doubtful for good thyne tara. As will be soft enough for the 1st day.

Why would you run her in the county when she stays the trip of the mares. She wouldn't get an allowance against the geldings. Even a place in the mares would be valuable on her page for breeding. And she's more than capable of placing.

 

[The King Pimm]

How long have you been watching.
He's done it with several horses.
Quevega
Annie Power
Arctic Fire
Thousand Stars
and some more I can't remember at this time.

It's not a leap of faith at all, it's applying logic.
Which might explain why you're struggling

You may well be right but it’s all part of the learning curve. I joined the forum last month so missed many of the ante post deals so doubting many of the bets I had placed since reading the thoughts and opinions of some very experienced and knowledgeable members of this forum, I’ve found the information enlightening but also a head scratcher. Ultimately you’ve got to go with your gut feeling and if I have doubts it usually for the right reasons.

 

[Quevega]

You may well be right but it’s all part of the learning curve. I joined the forum last month so missed many of the ante post deals so doubting many of the bets I had placed since reading the thoughts and opinions of some very experienced and knowledgeable members of this forum, I’ve found the information enlightening but also a head scratcher. Ultimately you’ve got to go with your gut feeling and if I have doubts it usually for the right reasons.

You gotta go with what you think ultimately.
But be wary of what’s more factual and what’s more opinion based.
Many posters on here don’t always demonstrate objectivity.
And there’s no reason for them to do so. It’s there prerogative.