Mares Hurdle 2019

[Scooby91]

Laurina has run a PRP of 160 and others just below....Stormy Ireland best is 142....so form in the book says Laurina could give SI a stone and win on the bridle.....might not beat AJ and BD....but even i could ride her to beat SI

What form of laurina is the good form. The standout performances? The bit of quality she's beat?


There's no denying anything stormy has done. Shes won with plenty in hand Against a better horse in good thyne tara. With the trees laurina has beaten. Further behind.

The only difference is SI has been stepped up against the best geldings of her generation. And been beaten fair and square. there's no shame in that.

The assumption is. On what laurinas done. Not the rating that's been plucked from the sky. ( as stormy would have the same one if she ran against the same trees)
That laurina has an absolute ton under the bonnet.
In the CH we'll see if that's the case.

The same assumption was made about samcro coming in to the season and he'd beaten alot better opposition.. This one might be right. Or might get found out. A million miles up in class.

 

[Innoko]

If SI was all that, she would be the one being aimed at the CH instead, or maybe I'm totally off the mark...

 

[Scooby91]

If SI was all that, she would be the one being aimed at the CH instead, or maybe I'm totally off the mark...

She's not good enough for the CH. But she's A very good mare. The point is she's running against the mares now.

Laurina has shown nothing good enough to win the CH. . The owner wants to run. We'll see what's under the bonnet. There would have to be an absolute ton. Because her rpr is rubbish. But maybe she does have a ton.

SI has hammered a 147 horse twice. Laurina has beat the trees ehich were further back.

 

[Quevega]

I think as a mare taking your first steps out of novice company to play with the big boys and current best mare in training, in the hardest 2m hurdle race of the season, on only her second start of the season is a ridiculous task, so much so that if she achieves it she will automatically be catapulted as better than Annie Power by myself, thus proving one point I made last season in the process, but quite frankly I just don't see it happening. This Champion Hurdle is by far the hardest, with the potential line up, in a fair while.


I understood your logic in your betting plan.
It was the comment that SI form is better.
Every rating system disagrees.
Running against better horses doesn’t necessarily make your form better .
The handicappers don’t rate horses on potential.
And i assume you think laurinas time to peak will be not this year cos the champion looks tough.

I don't think you are grasping the whole Stormy Ireland / Laurina comparison still, Stormy Ireland has better form IN THE BOOK, Laurina has the most POTENTIAL, would I back Laurina against Stormy Ireland, yes, do I think either have any chance in the Champion Hurdle, no, but I sure as hell have both of them winning the mares hurdle on the basis Apples Jade goes for the CH.

Because of my blinded love for Laurina :highly_amused: I was actually against what Scooby was saying about Laurina, but just check the form out, honestly, the horses she has beat in the manner she has done it you'd expect the top 10 in the Champion Hurdle betting to do exactly the same.

..............

 

[Quevega]

Not sure what happened then
My response in middle

 

[jack1092]

She's not good enough for the CH. But she's A very good mare. The point is she's running against the mares now.

Laurina has shown nothing good enough to win the CH. . The owner wants to run. We'll see what's under the bonnet. There would have to be an absolute ton. Because her rpr is rubbish. But maybe she does have a ton.

SI has hammered a 147 horse twice. Laurina has beat the trees ehich were further back.

I realise you are talking about a horse priced at like 8s compared to Laurina who would be probably odds on, so its partly a price thing. But which horse would you back if both were evens?

 

[Scooby91]

I realise you are talking about a horse priced at like 8s compared to Laurina who would be probably odds on, so its partly a price thing. But which horse would you back if both were evens?

Laurina ......
But there's no way id back laurina for a CH. Its night and day.


She was 20s when AJ was declare CH.
But my case is laurina / AJ won't run in this imo.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Laurina has run a PRP of 160 and others just below....Stormy Ireland best is 142....so form in the book says Laurina could give SI a stone and win on the bridle.....might not beat AJ and BD....but even i could ride her to beat SI

That's NOT 'form in the book' that's a rating concluded by others, and I am NOT saying she can't or won't be better than Stormy Ireland, in fact I think she will be, BUT she is 4/1 for arguably the hardest Champion Hurdle in recent years, whilst Stormy Ireland, who has better form than her is double the price for an easier race.

I've also said I would expect Laurina to beat Stormy Ireland, but this is based on potential and NOT what either horse has achieved to date.

 

[Scooby91]

Remove AJ and laurina. rightly or wrongly.
And id have stormy Ireland no bigger than a 7/2 chance.

Just my personal opinion.

 

[jack1092]

Laurina ......
But there's no way id back laurina for a CH. Its night and day.


She was 20s when AJ was declare CH.
But my case is laurina / AJ won't run in this imo.

Cheers, just couldn't fully work out whether you actually thought SI was better than Laurina or it!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Not sure what happened then
My response in middle

Haha yeah not sure what you done there :very_drunk:

Right, Stormy Ireland has better form, Laurina has beat some crap (in the context of what she will be facing in the CH) horses, Stormy Ireland has beat a better horse this season in Good Thyne Tara than Laurina has EVER beat, and that was on the bridle. She has also faced Master Dino in France losing by only 4 lengths, he went on to win some of the best hurdle races in France after that, and 8 lengths behind Espoir D'Allen (6th favourite for the CH), please, show me a horse Laurina has beat that puts her ahead of Stormy Ireland on form?

I, in no way, am saying the ratings will not be correct in the long run, as I have already stated I would back Laurina over SI in a match off, BUT what makes her 4/1 for a CH when SI is 8/1 for what is looking very likely to be a crap Mares Hurdle? It's based on 'potential only' nothing to do with what she has done to date, even the 'experts' say the same!

 

[Innoko]

BUT what makes her 4/1 for a CH when SI is 8/1 for what is looking very likely to be a crap Mares Hurdle? It's based on 'potential only' nothing to do with what she has done to date, even the 'experts' say the same!

Now that I understand... takes the 8-1.

 

[Scooby91]

Cheers, just couldn't fully work out whether you actually thought SI was better than Laurina or it!

There's nothing to say laurina is better than stormy Ireland. However at evens a piece. I'd chance she'd make the step up to that level.

I wouldn't be chancing she'd make the step up to winning a CH though. That's just miles out in the distance from what she's done. I can't even picture how she'd run.


Only analogy I can think of.
It's like backing a wide margin maiden winner. on the flat with a bit of hype around her. For the ARC with the oaks and derby winners in there.

When you've got a horse on the same card running in the listed race, who's beat the same horses by Further, on the bit. And had ran with credit but ultimately being beaten in graded races by the geldings.

 

[jack1092]

There's nothing to say laurina is better than stormy Ireland. However at evens a piece. I'd chance she'd make the step up to that level.

I'd argue there is to be honest...She wouldn't be realistically aimed at a CH if they didn't think she was at least up to competing at the level. Mullin's is realistic enough to know the level of a horse in comparison to others current + previous i'd hope. The owner might be that hell bent on running that he'd ignore the advice, but i find that hard to believe.

Also, same track, course and going she's run a better time carrying more weight than Farclas- SI wasn't winning that day. Granted, Laurina had basically a pacemaker etc etc.

 

[Quevega]

Haha yeah not sure what you done there :very_drunk:

Right, Stormy Ireland has better form, Laurina has beat some crap (in the context of what she will be facing in the CH) horses, Stormy Ireland has beat a better horse this season in Good Thyne Tara than Laurina has EVER beat, and that was on the bridle. She has also faced Master Dino in France losing by only 4 lengths, he went on to win some of the best hurdle races in France after that, and 8 lengths behind Espoir D'Allen (6th favourite for the CH), please, show me a horse Laurina has beat that puts her ahead of Stormy Ireland on form?

I, in no way, am saying the ratings will not be correct in the long run, as I have already stated I would back Laurina over SI in a match off, BUT what makes her 4/1 for a CH when SI is 8/1 for what is looking very likely to be a crap Mares Hurdle? It's based on 'potential only' nothing to do with what she has done to date, even the 'experts' say the same!

I know all of that,
but IMO I believe Laurina's form is better. And the stats back this up convincingly.

You are correct that she has not ran against better horses than Stormy, that's a fact.

But the way she has won gives me enough evidence that she is better, and has better form. Which concurs with the ratings.
I don't believe for one minute that Stormy Ireland would have won the same races in the same manner or margin of victory.

But, we've said before, that ratings are there for handicapping purposes and it's up to us whether we believe them or not.

I have a sneaky feeling that both you and scooby believe her form and ability (what we've seen on the race track, and judged by the handicapper) is better also.
Which is why you'd favour her at evens.

 

[Scooby91]

I know all of that,
but IMO I believe Laurina's form is better. And the stats back this up convincingly.

You are correct that she has not ran against better horses than Stormy, that's a fact.

But the way she has won gives me enough evidence that she is better, and has better form. Which concurs with the ratings.
I don't believe for one minute that Stormy Ireland would have won the same races in the same manner or margin of victory.

But, we've said before, that ratings are there for handicapping purposes and it's up to us whether we believe them or not.

I have a sneaky feeling that both you and scooby believe her form and ability (what we've seen on the race track, and judged by the handicapper) is better also.
Which is why you'd favour her at evens.

But the way she has won gives me enough evidence that she is better, and has better form. Which concurs with the ratings.


Stormy Ireland has beat the same horses on the bit in the same fashion? With 1 considerably better in there

If she's beat good thyne tara twice on the bit.
Id be certain she'd have won everything else laurina has, in the same fashion. When she's won a better race in that fashion.

Iv said why I'd chance her at evens.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I have a sneaky feeling that both you and scooby believe her form and ability (what we've seen on the race track, and judged by the handicapper) is better also.
Which is why you'd favour her at evens.

The reason being, potential, as previous noted. Yes, I do think Laurina will/is better than Stormy Ireland, but we are talking Mares Hurdle here versus Champion Hurdle. Stormy Ireland has a better chance (IMO) in the Mares Hurdle than Laurina does in the Champion Hurdle, and SI is double the price. Not sure it is that hard to grasp, or maybe I am the worst at explaining :highly_amused:

Just to briefly go over it all again in quick answer form:

Do I think Laurina is or will be better than Stormy Ireland? YES

Do I think Stormy Ireland has better 'form in the book' than Laurina currently? YES

Most potential? LAURINA

Do I think Laurina will win the Champion Hurdle this season? NO

Do I think Stormy Ireland is overpriced in comparison to Laurina for their respective races? YES

Would I back Laurina against Stormy Ireland? YES

I am in no way crabbing Laurina, she's my girl But we are talking value on substance here. And my initial thoughts about Stormy Ireland being overlooked because of Laurina being around still stands too.

 

[Kevloaf]

I went to bed and we'd sorted this out :highly_amused:

The quick answer form should catch on. That's great haha

 

[Scooby91]

The reason being, potential, as previous noted. Yes, I do think Laurina will/is better than Stormy Ireland, but we are talking Mares Hurdle here versus Champion Hurdle. Stormy Ireland has a better chance (IMO) in the Mares Hurdle than Laurina does in the Champion Hurdle, and SI is double the price. Not sure it is that hard to grasp, or maybe I am the worst at explaining :highly_amused:

Just to briefly go over it all again in quick answer form:

Do I think Laurina is or will be better than Stormy Ireland? YES

Do I think Stormy Ireland has better 'form in the book' than Laurina currently? YES

Most potential? LAURINA

Do I think Laurina will win the Champion Hurdle this season? NO

Do I think Stormy Ireland is overpriced in comparison to Laurina for their respective races? YES

Would I back Laurina against Stormy Ireland? YES

I am in no way crabbing Laurina, she's my girl But we are talking value on substance here. And my initial thoughts about Stormy Ireland being overlooked because of Laurina being around still stands too.

Exactly same position.

 

[Quevega]

The reason being, potential, as previous noted. Yes, I do think Laurina will/is better than Stormy Ireland, but we are talking Mares Hurdle here versus Champion Hurdle. Stormy Ireland has a better chance (IMO) in the Mares Hurdle than Laurina does in the Champion Hurdle, and SI is double the price. Not sure it is that hard to grasp, or maybe I am the worst at explaining :highly_amused:

Just to briefly go over it all again in quick answer form:

Do I think Laurina is or will be better than Stormy Ireland? YES

Do I think Stormy Ireland has better 'form in the book' than Laurina currently? YES

Most potential? LAURINA

Do I think Laurina will win the Champion Hurdle this season? NO

Do I think Stormy Ireland is overpriced in comparison to Laurina for their respective races? YES

Would I back Laurina against Stormy Ireland? YES

I am in no way crabbing Laurina, she's my girl But we are talking value on substance here. And my initial thoughts about Stormy Ireland being overlooked because of Laurina being around still stands too.

I've understood you view point from the beginning with the bet you've made. There's a bit of value in that price.

It's the form in the book point we will have to disagree on.

And I understand Scooby's point that he would want her to beat better opponents before being convinced, as it can happen that you get 'flat track bully types'.

But I believe the evidence is already there myself, as the handicapper and other rating systems have confirmed.

One thing we whole heartedly agree upon is she will be an absolute superstar if she can win the champion hurdle this season. One of the best we will have ever seen. Which makes it difficult to believe it will happen for sure.

PS.
Benie Des Dieux is miles better than Stormy Ireland also, and wins the Mares hurdle easily.