Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[Kautostar]

The bookies did seem really slow to react today.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

No real secrets mate. Was working from home and flicking through twitter (i follow mostly horse racing and lfc content exclusively so my timelines dont be clogged up with much else).
Had i been in the office today i wouldnt have seen it until it was too late to act.

Cheers KSS, yeah that's the problem, need to be online at the right time. Twitter notifications would work well if there was a decent account that only tweeted big racing news. Looking at the RP and ATR accounts they look to fire out tweets left right and centre which ain't no good

 

[Middle_Of_March]

IF all goes to plan I can’t see KD’s SP being odds against for any race up to and including the CHurdle.

Absolutely agree

That Supreme win looks better and better and better every time I watch it

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

So assuming KD stays hurdling (surely does after yesterday’s news especially) who are this years Arkle horses?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

So assuming KD stays hurdling (surely does after yesterday’s news especially) who are this years Arkle horses?

Good question.

I was looking at the Arkle market the other day and feel I could wipe half of the market as not turning up or not good enough already, obviously these are just my opinion, but horses like Klassical Dream (CH), Laurina (think she'll stick to the Mares Hurdle, until the Mares Chase in 2021), Champ (too short a distance) are some near the top of the market I have discounted already. I also feel I can discount Samcro too, with Gigginstown having Felix Desjy (who is the first horse I backed for the Arkle) & possibly Vision D'Honneur. There are plenty bigger prices of horses that just are not good enough (IMO), although I suspect we will have another Lalor and one will bounce to the head of the market after winning the early season Arkle trial, which will need weighing up at the time.

I will likely wait until the Mullins battalion come out, and decide on one or two of his. Already have Draconien in free bets, though would not hold my breath with him, despite the confidence last season.

 

[Scooby91]

Just the single bet for myself. Placed yesterday with the espoir dallen news.
Buveur dair @8/1 EW
Hes a 4/1 shot for me, so ill stick chipping away with him into the new year if 7s are still around.
If klassical dream steps up then fair play to him. Its a hefty step up to buveur dairs level .and the price just dosent reflect that for me.

Iv no interest in the mine field of novice and juvenile hurdlers until after christmas . So its likely ill be having a big position on buveur dair. And go from there as the higher quality races unfold

 

[ComplyOrDie]

We never got to see her over here but De Bon Coeur has been retired.

 

[BigChaang]

Good question.

I was looking at the Arkle market the other day and feel I could wipe half of the market as not turning up or not good enough already, obviously these are just my opinion, but horses like Klassical Dream (CH), Laurina (think she'll stick to the Mares Hurdle, until the Mares Chase in 2021), Champ (too short a distance) are some near the top of the market I have discounted already. I also feel I can discount Samcro too, with Gigginstown having Felix Desjy (who is the first horse I backed for the Arkle) & possibly Vision D'Honneur. There are plenty bigger prices of horses that just are not good enough (IMO), although I suspect we will have another Lalor and one will bounce to the head of the market after winning the early season Arkle trial, which will need weighing up at the time.

I will likely wait until the Mullins battalion come out, and decide on one or two of his. Already have Draconien in free bets, though would not hold my breath with him, despite the confidence last season.

I think i remember Gordon Elliott saying , he thought Felix Desjy was better suited to Flat tracks ..??.
My only single so far is Draconien, like you C.O.D , will wait for the mullins battallion..

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Great news that Ten Sovereigns is a runner in the Nunthorpe next week at York. 3/1 still available, so topped up on my small stakes doubles with the Festival in mind.

Ten Sovereigns 3/1 Fusil Raffles (Champion Hurdle) 16/1 in a Double
Ten Sovereigns 3/1 Birchdale (JLT) 25/1 in a Double
Ten Sovereigns 3/1 Lostintranslation (Gold Cup) 14/1 in a Double

 

[Nwfb89]

My only bet for the arkle at this time is a free bet on draconien purely based on the comments from last year, couldn't have felix desjy for it I don't think he likes the hill if you go back and watch the supreme and apart from klassical dream he looked like he was going the best of the rest but faded up the hill albeit I think he may of made a mistake at the last and the year before in the bumper he looked the winner turning in to my eyes but only managed 6th or 7th I think

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

My only bet for the arkle at this time is a free bet on draconien purely based on the comments from last year, couldn't have felix desjy for it I don't think he likes the hill if you go back and watch the supreme and apart from klassical dream he looked like he was going the best of the rest but faded up the hill albeit I think he may of made a mistake at the last and the year before in the bumper he looked the winner turning in to my eyes but only managed 6th or 7th I think

If he does go over fences, Felix Desjy would look ideal type for the Maghull Novice Chase at Aintree. I don't think he's a fan of the Cheltenham hill.

 

[somer1]

Just had a free £5 bet from 365 which has gone on a Trixie.
Buveur D'air. CH 6/1
Laurina. Mares 6/1
Benie Des Dieux. Stayers 6/1

 

[Quevega]

Three horses I like from Punchestown last year.
Honeysuckle
Eglantine du seuill
Reserve Tank.

If anyone has any idea of plans for next season on any of these then It'd be a help. But my first thoughts are as follows.

Eglantine may stay hurdling and aim at the Mares, and would be a useful sidekick to BDD and if improvement is clear to see early in season then who knows.
The run against the boys at Punchestown was pretty useful and obviously she's a mares novice winner (probably a bit cosy in hindsight).

Honeysuckle was a favourite of mine and sadly missed cheltenham, but her form looks better than most novices from last year. And looked to have more in hand too.
The issue I have is that she looks underpriced in most of the races she is priced up in and with the announcement of the new mares chase, she may well go chasing. In which case I like both her and Laurina for the JLT.

I personally believe BDD will be aimed at the Mares hurdle and we may not see her till March. If she stays fit and is ready to run then if Laurina has been chasing then I don't see why they would put her in also. Which is why Eglantine is more likely in my mind.

Which brings me to Reserve Tank, who I also like for the JLT. If he goes chasing. And 16-1 looks fair enough, except he's with Colin, and he could end up running in allsorts of weird and wonderful races, but I have a feeling he may well end up following the same path as Lostintranslation (which was quite smooth for Tizzard). Which means the RSA could come into play also.

Anyhow.
I've backed Eglantine du seuill for the Mares at 25-1 B365.

All a guessing game though int it at this stage as so much can happen to change things around.

 

[Kevloaf]

Great news that Ten Sovereigns is a runner in the Nunthorpe next week at York. 3/1 still available, so topped up on my small stakes doubles with the Festival in mind.

Ten Sovereigns 3/1 Fusil Raffles (Champion Hurdle) 16/1 in a Double
Ten Sovereigns 3/1 Birchdale (JLT) 25/1 in a Double
Ten Sovereigns 3/1 Lostintranslation (Gold Cup) 14/1 in a Double

Fusil Raffles is 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle???

Before I start, and I'll keep it brief, I'll prefizx by saying there is hardly a thing you've posted over the last couple of months that I don't agreee with....

but my God, that's an abysmal price.


He's won a crap Adonis easily, against nothing at all of note, then won a 5 runner Grade 1 by 2.75L against Fakir D'oudaries.

16/1? You're living in an absolute fantasy world if you consider that value, and I assume you're not naive enough to think it being in a multiple changes the value aspect of any selection


The 'fact' Daryl Jacob will be the jockey means he should be a 16/1 shot minimum too, over rated bottle job of a jockey.

Every horse has his/her price, so I'm not saying Fusil Raffles can't improve, or isn't worth more than the bare form... but 16/1 isn't even half the price he should be.

 

[Kevloaf]

Three horses I like from Punchestown last year.
Honeysuckle
Eglantine du seuill
Reserve Tank.

If anyone has any idea of plans for next season on any of these then It'd be a help. But my first thoughts are as follows.

Eglantine may stay hurdling and aim at the Mares, and would be a useful sidekick to BDD and if improvement is clear to see early in season then who knows.
The run against the boys at Punchestown was pretty useful and obviously she's a mares novice winner (probably a bit cosy in hindsight).

Honeysuckle was a favourite of mine and sadly missed cheltenham, but her form looks better than most novices from last year. And looked to have more in hand too.
The issue I have is that she looks underpriced in most of the races she is priced up in and with the announcement of the new mares chase, she may well go chasing. In which case I like both her and Laurina for the JLT.

I personally believe BDD will be aimed at the Mares hurdle and we may not see her till March. If she stays fit and is ready to run then if Laurina has been chasing then I don't see why they would put her in also. Which is why Eglantine is more likely in my mind.

Which brings me to Reserve Tank, who I also like for the JLT. If he goes chasing. And 16-1 looks fair enough, except he's with Colin, and he could end up running in allsorts of weird and wonderful races, but I have a feeling he may well end up following the same path as Lostintranslation (which was quite smooth for Tizzard). Which means the RSA could come into play also.

Anyhow.
I've backed Eglantine du seuill for the Mares at 25-1 B365.

All a guessing game though int it at this stage as so much can happen to change things around.

Just on Honeysuckle.... long term aim the new mares race? I can't imagine the request a bets would be generous.

Shame we didn't get to see whether your out of proportion staking on her was the right move or not this year

 

[Quevega]

Just on Honeysuckle.... long term aim the new mares race? I can't imagine the request a bets would be generous.

Shame we didn't get to see whether your out of proportion staking on her was the right move or not this year

It was definitely the right move in my mind.
Wether it’d have been a winning one or not we’ll never know.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Fusil Raffles is 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle???

Before I start, and I'll keep it brief, I'll prefizx by saying there is hardly a thing you've posted over the last couple of months that I don't agreee with....

but my God, that's an abysmal price.


He's won a crap Adonis easily, against nothing at all of note, then won a 5 runner Grade 1 by 2.75L against Fakir D'oudaries.

16/1? You're living in an absolute fantasy world if you consider that value, and I assume you're not naive enough to think it being in a multiple changes the value aspect of any selection


The 'fact' Daryl Jacob will be the jockey means he should be a 16/1 shot minimum too, over rated bottle job of a jockey.

Every horse has his/her price, so I'm not saying Fusil Raffles can't improve, or isn't worth more than the bare form... but 16/1 isn't even half the price he should be.

My assumption on these small stakes doubles is that
a) Ten Sovereigns is overpriced (and the race is on in the next week)
b) I am trying to boost the prices of some (long-range) Festival horses without spending much on them
c) If I am right on Ten Sovereigns and he wins then Fusil Raffles becomes a 67/1 long-range price, not 16/1,
- Birchdale becomes a 103/1 long-ranged price on my initial stake, and Lostintranslation 59/1.
d) If I am wrong on Ten Sovereigns then I have lost only a small stake finding out.
e) It’s part of an overall strategy, looking at the potential to build up an ante-post book and based on finding horses in races they are most likely to run in (after separating the potential wheat from the chaff in the Festival markets).
f) It’s not my principal route to ante-post betting merely a low cost addition.
g) Ten Sovereigns is now already priced between 7/4 and 5/2 so my initial thoughts at a) are on track, TS just needs to win the race now!

 

[Marty973]

My assumption on these small stakes doubles is that
a) Ten Sovereigns is overpriced (and the race is on in the next week)
b) I am trying to boost the prices of some (long-range) Festival horses without spending much on them
c) If I am right on Ten Sovereigns and he wins then Fusil Raffles becomes a 67/1 long-range price, not 16/1,
- Birchdale becomes a 103/1 long-ranged price on my initial stake, and Lostintranslation 59/1.
d) If I am wrong on Ten Sovereigns then I have lost only a small stake finding out.
e) It’s part of an overall strategy, looking at the potential to build up an ante-post book and based on finding horses in races they are most likely to run in (after separating the potential wheat from the chaff in the Festival markets).
f) It’s not my principal route to ante-post betting merely a low cost addition.
g) Ten Sovereigns is now already priced between 7/4 and 5/2 so my initial thoughts at a) are on track, TS just needs to win the race now!

I’ve used this tactic a little myself so far this year to occupy me during the flat season (mainly using Enable and Stradivarius. I can’t help but think I should quit while ahead with it though.

 

[billymag]

Im on Rathhill for the Arkle, agree most of the horses at the head of the market look like going else where (much like last year at this stage). Ive been trying to work out which race he would go to and I think for various reasons this looks the one. Ive had bigger bets any race on him but 33/1 for Arkle. Its all about potential and vibe ive got from stable, you couldnt have him on your mind after the Sandown run but ive put 2 and 2 together and hoping im right that hes Nickys runner for the Arkle. Ill copy this message and post on Arkle thread.

 

[Native River]

Three horses I like from Punchestown last year.
Honeysuckle
Eglantine du seuill
Reserve Tank.

If anyone has any idea of plans for next season on any of these then It'd be a help. But my first thoughts are as follows.

Eglantine may stay hurdling and aim at the Mares, and would be a useful sidekick to BDD and if improvement is clear to see early in season then who knows.
The run against the boys at Punchestown was pretty useful and obviously she's a mares novice winner (probably a bit cosy in hindsight).

Honeysuckle was a favourite of mine and sadly missed cheltenham, but her form looks better than most novices from last year. And looked to have more in hand too.
The issue I have is that she looks underpriced in most of the races she is priced up in and with the announcement of the new mares chase, she may well go chasing. In which case I like both her and Laurina for the JLT.

I personally believe BDD will be aimed at the Mares hurdle and we may not see her till March. If she stays fit and is ready to run then if Laurina has been chasing then I don't see why they would put her in also. Which is why Eglantine is more likely in my mind.

Which brings me to Reserve Tank, who I also like for the JLT. If he goes chasing. And 16-1 looks fair enough, except he's with Colin, and he could end up running in allsorts of weird and wonderful races, but I have a feeling he may well end up following the same path as Lostintranslation (which was quite smooth for Tizzard). Which means the RSA could come into play also.

Anyhow.
I've backed Eglantine du seuill for the Mares at 25-1 B365.

All a guessing game though int it at this stage as so much can happen to change things around.

Had a point back after Punchestown on Reserve Tank for the RSA, the way he stayed on both there and Aintree made me think it could be somewhere he may go especially with Tizzard anything can happen.