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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

Hamptonfox said:
My assumption on these small stakes doubles is that
a) Ten Sovereigns is overpriced (and the race is on in the next week)
b) I am trying to boost the prices of some (long-range) Festival horses without spending much on them
c) If I am right on Ten Sovereigns and he wins then Fusil Raffles becomes a 67/1 long-range price, not 16/1,
- Birchdale becomes a 103/1 long-ranged price on my initial stake, and Lostintranslation 59/1.
d) If I am wrong on Ten Sovereigns then I have lost only a small stake finding out.
e) It’s part of an overall strategy, looking at the potential to build up an ante-post book and based on finding horses in races they are most likely to run in (after separating the potential wheat from the chaff in the Festival markets).
f) It’s not my principal route to ante-post betting merely a low cost addition.
g) Ten Sovereigns is now already priced between 7/4 and 5/2 so my initial thoughts at a) are on track, TS just needs to win the race now!
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So if Ten Sovereigns doesn't do the business ... do you try again and again with Fusil Raffles?

Is it not a common mistake to think you are getting value when you role up a poor price?

I see it time and time again where the default that people say is that because it's short it goes in an acca...

Poor value for a horse is poor value regardless of whatever else you have - it just becomes more difficult to spot as you convince yourself its not risky?


Fusil Raffles should be closer to 33/1


I absolutely do see the point you're making, and I've previously done similar - and I may even end up doing it again.... my issue is with the specific horse and his price :p
 
Kevloaf said:
So if Ten Sovereigns doesn't do the business ... do you try again and again with Fusil Raffles?

Is it not a common mistake to think you are getting value when you role up a poor price?

I see it time and time again where the default that people say is that because it's short it goes in an acca...

Poor value for a horse is poor value regardless of whatever else you have - it just becomes more difficult to spot as you convince yourself its not risky?


Fusil Raffles should be closer to 33/1


I absolutely do see the point you're making, and I've previously done similar - and I may even end up doing it again.... my issue is with the specific horse and his price :p
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Great point Kev - It's the reason bookies love football accumulators. Betting under the odds is the road to the poor house no matter the type of bet.

*I'm not saying Fusil Raffles is a bad price btw, just making a general point:devilish:
 
First bet done

Klassical Dream - Champion
Benie Des Dieux - Mares
Paisley Park - Stayers

3 points accum 64-1
 
Folski said:
First bet done

Klassical Dream - Champion
Benie Des Dieux - Mares
Paisley Park - Stayers

3 points accum 64-1
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That's like picking Messi first in your FiFa Acca team.;)
 
Kevloaf said:
So if Ten Sovereigns doesn't do the business ... do you try again and again with Fusil Raffles?

Is it not a common mistake to think you are getting value when you role up a poor price?

I see it time and time again where the default that people say is that because it's short it goes in an acca...

Poor value for a horse is poor value regardless of whatever else you have - it just becomes more difficult to spot as you convince yourself its not risky?


Fusil Raffles should be closer to 33/1


I absolutely do see the point you're making, and I've previously done similar - and I may even end up doing it again.... my issue is with the specific horse and his price :p
Click to expand...

No I don’t choose Fusil Raffles, or any horse, again and again. I choose different ones, usually double figure prices, with a strong likelihood to have one Festival target. Where possible with proven Cheltenham form, and definitely avoid those that have lost multiple times at Cheltenham. Often choose different Festival races so that I can seek to achieve a spread of Festival bets on different horses in different races.

Then in the two weeks pre-Festival I can focus on the Handicaps and late closing races, and NRNB choices.

Add in some Long-range big priced singles (which I have listed elsewhere) that type of plan has successfully covered all the bases and led to my two most profitable Festivals in 2018 and 2019. I know that’s not going to last but I ain’t changing the plan until it’s broken.

I definitely don’t favour having one or two key horses in my antepost betting, who can take the whole plan down if they are injured, run poorly or don’t turn up for other reasons.
 
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Hamptonfox said:
No I don’t choose Fusil Raffles, or any horse, again and again. I choose different ones, usually double figure prices, with a strong likelihood to have one Festival target. Where possible with proven Cheltenham form, and definitely avoid those that have lost multiple times at Cheltenham. Often choose different Festival races so that I can seek to achieve a spread of Festival bets on different horses in different races.

Then in the two weeks pre-Festival I can focus on the Handicaps and late closing races, and NRNB choices.

Add in some Long-range big priced singles (which I have listed elsewhere) that type of plan has successfully covered all the bases and led to my two most profitable Festivals in 2018 and 2019. I know that’s not going to last but I ain’t changing the plan until it’s broken.

I definitely don’t favour having one or two key horses in my antepost betting, who can take the whole plan down if they are injured, run poorly or don’t turn up for other reasons.
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My question was (obviously not very clearly) if Ten Sovereigns doesn't win, will you pick another horse to roll onto Fusil Raffles?

If the answer is yes, I've failed :highly_amused:
 
Just pick Sottsass in Arc and be done with it ;)

His form lines keeps getting better without him even running , Roman Candle yesterday short head behind Headman the latest form (RC also ties nicely in with O'Brien horse Japan). He will put it up to Enable , I have no doubt , whether that will be good enough only time will tell.
 
The Beast said:
Just pick Sottsass in Arc and be done with it ;)

His form lines keeps getting better without him even running , Roman Candle yesterday short head behind Headman the latest form (RC also ties nicely in with O'Brien horse Japan). He will put it up to Enable , I have no doubt , whether that will be good enough only time will tell.
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I like Sottsass too, Form is very solid.
 
Kevloaf said:
My question was (obviously not very clearly) if Ten Sovereigns doesn't win, will you pick another horse to roll onto Fusil Raffles?

If the answer is yes, I've failed :highly_amused:
Click to expand...

You’ve failed, the answer is no.��
 
Hamptonfox said:
You’ve failed, the answer is no.😉
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You would though, wouldn't you ?
If you had nothing rolling on to Fusil Raffles because Ten Sov's lost. The temptation would be too great to have another go (for a gambler).

Would you dare leave it unbacked ?

I'd say NO.

You'd be looking for the next 'certainty' to use as a stepping stone.

I definitely would.
 
Hamptonfox said:
You’ve failed, the answer is no.
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Have I?! :highly_amused: I thought I failed if it was yes?



If Ten Sovereigns does not win, and you include Fusil Raffles in any other bet - then I have failed.

If Ten Sovereigns wins, you're on Fusil Raffles at a bigger price but he was still poor value :p

If Ten Sovereigns loses and you don't back Fusil Raffles again, then I get my way?




Don't back anything with Fusil Raffles is my end goal :p unless he's 50/1 plus on his own
 
I have Fusil Raffles in my book as a single at big odds (55/1 pre Punchestown).

I would choose the Festival horses for these small stakes doubles with a runner at The Ebor Meeting (for example) depending on the make up of my Festival book, and the horses I was keen on backing for the Festival at the time.

The point I was trying to make is that I am not wholesale betting a couple of horses for the Festival, I am looking at a wider selection angle for theses bets.

Fusil Raffles was one this week, and he may be again dependent on other Festival options I look at as I study video form and antepost markets. I think the Champion Hurdle is lacking depth and have Klassical Dream already that’s why FR this week.

Good fun at low cost.
 
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Thought i had read that other bookies than 365 had priced up the Ladbrokes Trophy/Gold Cup double but cant find anything.
Help Needed Please :encouragement:
 
somer1 said:
Thought i had read that other bookies than 365 had priced up the Ladbrokes Trophy/Gold Cup double but cant find anything.
Help Needed Please :encouragement:
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Horse racing section, scroll right to the bottom, under ‘Antepost Special Doubles’. Only Santini and TOTG priced up currently, both 50/1.
 
Up to 3.

Champion Hurdle (coral)
Buveur D'air @ 8/1 EW


Ryanair chase (hills)
Min* win @ 12/1


JLT chase* (hills)
Samcro win @16/1


Buveur D'air

Not inspirational stuff, but iv seen nothing at all to think that buveur dair isnt still the top dog in the division. Top class performance at punchestown. Imo One of the very best 2 mile hurdlers ive seen, and very much the one to beat. His price is an insult compared to the others around him And for this reason he's One i deffinately want on side.



Min*
Brilliant performance at aintree. This is his race, and hes the one to beat.

Mullins said: “That was impressive — obviously the school around Cheltenham did him well! *He didn't have a hard race at Cheltenham, when he sulked*when we didn't let him do what he wanted to do.

“The change of tactics made the difference. We let him enjoy himself and Ruby said fence by fence he was enjoying it more and more.

“He’s turned the form around with Politologue from last year and John Hales (Politologue’s owner) just said we’ll have the decider next year.

“I thought our horse was very good today. Obviously he didn’t have a hard race in Cheltenham.

“I think two and a half is his trip. I’m starting to wonder if he could go a bit further, but two and a half will be fine for the time being.




Samcro
Simular profile to defi de seuil, he got stuffed by the big boys in open class over hurdles. . But with the huge hype that follows him around. You just know he's going to win a mickey mouse novices chase early on and go into 4/1 before iv even had a chance to weigh it up.
The 2 1/2 novice hurdle division looked as weak as anything this year, we all know he can jump a fence, and nowbhe will be running against much lower opposition, he can rebuild his confidence on route and regain the winning thread.
 
Scooby, you are right about a price collapse on SAMCRO, one smooth chasing round on debut and the prices will shrink drastically. For those who fancy Samcro then pre-fence debut is the time to bet.
 
Hamptonfox said:
Scooby, you are right about a price collapse on SAMCRO, one smooth chasing round on debut and the prices will shrink drastically. For those who fancy Samcro then pre-fence debut is the time to bet.
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Agree about Samcro price collapse IF he comes back to his best , and he shows he can jump. Knowing how highly though Elliott rates him and also the pace he shown in his races i am not so sure he would go to the JLT. I have feeling the more prestigious Arkle would be his race for couple of reasons.

First day of festival and it'll be the first chase run , they bound to go off like scolded cats up front and thats perfect for a stayer like Samcro running style to pick them up late.
Secondly although he not ground dependant he also guaranteed a lush carpet of grass to race on which hasn't be churned up from previous days racing should he go for JLT.

Alot of previous Gold Cup winners go this route and thats where I see Samcro heading following year IF problems behind him.
 
JLT is ran on a different course, on fresh ground on the thursday.
 
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