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Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

ComplyOrDie said:
A Grade 3 & a Grade 1 trumps a Handicap & a Grade 1. The handicappers he beat were nothing special, surely you know that? You say 'open age' like it's going to be a hard race for him, but the 2nd was only 5 (at the time) and the 3rd only 4 (again, at the time), so they likely have improvement ahead of them and not at their peak, all the while, physically, Champ looked a right beast. The 3 horses rated higher than him that day have done absolutely bugger all for some time now, and are woefully out of form. Le Musee, who finished 2nd that day has since been stuffed.

On his last race, I think pretty much every horse was inconvenienced by the way that was run, not just him, but again, the field, for me, was not exactly one I'd go over the top for in beating.

Don't get me wrong, I like the horse, I think he can win at the festival, in the right race, I just don't think it is this one, as I have noted prior.
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He's achieved slightly more I'd say, the ratings back that up, along with other factors.
I think the handicap win just provides a different context, rather than form with just other novices. Gives you al least another indication of level of ability (allbeit slight)

And it's poetic license to use le musee's next run and not the three others who won next time out.

I mentioned I hoped you weren't a teacher before, now I hope you're not a police officer :devilish:
 
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quevega said:
He's achieved slightly more I'd say, the ratings back that up, along with other factors.
I think the handicap win just provides a different context, rather than form with just other novices. Gives you al least another indication of level of ability (allbeit slight)

And it's poetic license to use le musee's next run and not the three others who won next time out.
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As I said, I don't dislike him, I just hope he ends up in the correct race myself. Glad, like others on here that he is making up the market, and wish you all the best with the bigger prices you may or may not have on him. I'll wait for the day, and decide then with him I think.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
As I said, I don't dislike him, I just hope he ends up in the correct race myself. Glad, like others on here that he is making up the market, and wish you all the best with the bigger prices you may or may not have on him. I'll wait for the day, and decide then with him I think.
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It's only fair and objective to state that I only have Champ at 10-1 for 2 points (small bet) and in the mad doubles I got tempted into yesterday.
But I do like him and he does need to settle ideally, although he may just run ok like that anyway, some can.
 
All those who don’t rate Champ (and Battleoverdoyen) must be licking their lips at the shape of this market. Some huge value for those who don’t rate either of those two
 
Are we overlooking Jarvey's Plate because he's not from one of the 'sexy' yards?

Nothing would please me more than Fergal winning @ the festival, he's a cracking character and a really good trainer, who has come to prominence no end over the past 2 or 3 seasons.

I Can't Explain was fancied by quite a few on here, and had that been another Henderson horse that done that to him he'd easily be single figures. Having re-watched the races, he has fairly quickened up that hill and then quickened again after one hit from Paddy, most taking.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Are we overlooking Jarvey's Plate because he's not from one of the 'sexy' yards?

Nothing would please me more than Fergal winning @ the festival, he's a cracking character and a really good trainer, who has come to prominence no end over the past 2 or 3 seasons.

I Can't Explain was fancied by quite a few on here, and had that been another Henderson horse that done that to him he'd easily be single figures. Having re-watched the races, he has fairly quickened up that hill and then quickened again after one hit from Paddy, most taking.
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Probably a bit of that...

I always agree in principal about smaller trainers being over looked, and it's pretty much general consensus...but on the other side of the coin, the price factors in the 'fact' that Fergal isn't as good as the bigger trainers.

Ben Pauling chinning Harry Fry is an exception perhaps, but looking through the list of winning trainers - Mullins, Elliott, Weld, Henderson, Mouse, Twiston-Davies, Donald McCain, Hobbs, Meade, Johnson, Martin Pipe, Aidan O'Brien, David Nicholson

by the time we get to March, whether it's a fair judgement or not, a bigger stable with have an inherently more talented horse and they will beat Jarveys Plate...

I don't want that to be true, but is it true?
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Are we overlooking Jarvey's Plate because he's not from one of the 'sexy' yards?

Nothing would please me more than Fergal winning @ the festival, he's a cracking character and a really good trainer, who has come to prominence no end over the past 2 or 3 seasons.

I Can't Explain was fancied by quite a few on here, and had that been another Henderson horse that done that to him he'd easily be single figures. Having re-watched the races, he has fairly quickened up that hill and then quickened again after one hit from Paddy, most taking.
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I like JP but would sooner see him in the AB, LTO at Cheltenham the further he went the better he was and I think he would be a great bet in that race at a big price. He will make a very good 3m chaser next season IMO.
 
jonthehammer said:
I like JP but would sooner see him in the AB, LTO at Cheltenham the further he went the better he was and I think he would be a great bet in that race at a big price. He will make a very good 3m chaser next season IMO.
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I backed jarvey's at the weekend with sky NRNB at 16s.
Read they were going to trials day and likely to meet another good one or two. My thought was if he runs really well then 16-1 won't be a bad price and if he gets beat easily they may go for the AB anyway.
 
Kevloaf said:
Probably a bit of that...

I always agree in principal about smaller trainers being over looked, and it's pretty much general consensus...but on the other side of the coin, the price factors in the 'fact' that Fergal isn't as good as the bigger trainers.

Ben Pauling chinning Harry Fry is an exception perhaps, but looking through the list of winning trainers - Mullins, Elliott, Weld, Henderson, Mouse, Twiston-Davies, Donald McCain, Hobbs, Meade, Johnson, Martin Pipe, Aidan O'Brien, David Nicholson

by the time we get to March, whether it's a fair judgement or not, a bigger stable with have an inherently more talented horse and they will beat Jarveys Plate...

I don't want that to be true, but is it true?
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Given the right horse I am confident O'Brien could achieve results too.

The trainers you mention have had the horses/backing to get to where they have. I'd also point out that since the turn of the millennium there have been 5, what I would call, 'low key' trainers winning this race, Mark Pitman, Tom George (at the time, probably of higher profile now), Howard Johnson, Donald McCain Jnr (I note you have him listed above, but he's not achieved a great deal since taking over from his father), and as you have already mentioned, Ben Pauling.

The only dominant trainer in this race in recent times is WPM, the other 'higher profile' trainers you talk of are hit and miss in this race, so I wouldn't take 'the trainer' needing to be 'better' than another (unless WPM) to win a race like this, especially as we are currently looking at quite an open, possibly even poor, renewal.

I don't think he will turn up in the Albert Bartlett, purely because of how it has affected Poetic Rhythm, who they sent their last season. He's since been woefully out of form, albeit now chasing, but hasn't looked the same horse since that run, I don't think they will want to risk ruining JP going the same route.

I will be surprised if we don't see an Elliott/Mullins horse better than JP, that I can't deny, but IF that was say Champ/Battleoverdoyen/Blackbow winning that race the way he did on his first start over the trip he wouldn't be a 20/1 shot, I'd suspect single figures.
 
quevega said:
I backed jarvey's at the weekend with sky NRNB at 16s.
Read they were going to trials day and likely to meet another good one or two. My thought was if he runs really well then 16-1 won't be a bad price and if he gets beat easily they may go for the AB anyway.
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Yeah that could be the case. I may have a go on the NRNB at 16s, it makes sense having backed him for the AB NRNB also.
 
Looking forward to dento des obeaux tomorrow . Hopefully he puts on a show. As iv been waiting a long while for him to hit the track.
 
Scooby91 said:
Looking forward to dento des obeaux tomorrow . Hopefully he puts on a show. As iv been waiting a long while for him to hit the track.
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Oddschecker says he was last of 5.
Not the case, He was 5th of 12
 
Scooby91 said:
Looking forward to dento des obeaux tomorrow . Hopefully he puts on a show. As iv been waiting a long while for him to hit the track.
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What is it about his French form that interests you? You said Epatante's form was worth nothing, but its well ahead of this fella's.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
What is it about his French form that interests you? You said Epatante's form was worth nothing, but its well ahead of this fella's.
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Sullivan mentioned that they think 'he could be special' in the OJA owners section..
 
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