Champion Hurdle 2019

[Scooby91]

The scenes when ITCF wins

I'd love it if he beat samcro. No idea if he's sound or what the plan with him Is,

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd love it if he beat samcro. No idea if he's sound or what the plan with him Is,

ITCF is back in training and they are planning to run in October. Staying over hurdles.

 

[mayo]

I don’t know if anyone caught the Noel Fehily interview on ATR the other day, he said that basically BD didn’t feel 100% when he won the CH?? Maybe this might explain why Melon and Mick Jazz got as close as they did? When Melon went past I thought he was going to go away and win but BD battled back strongly to get the win. Agree that Samcro shouldn’t be as close in the betting yet

Fehily didnt ride him this year ?

 

[somer1]

So Samcro will be back in November at Down Royal but they don’t know over what (ATR)
Thinks we will be the last to know

 

[Vautour]

Does anyone else think Summerville Boy could be something special?

The mistake two out in the Supreme cost him about 5 lengths and he went on to clatter the last - if that hadn't happened he would have been a very impressive winner having improved greatly over the course of the season. I am sure Tom George has said that he doesn't think he is ground dependant so if he can polish up his hurdling I think he could be in with a big shout coming up the hill and he looks the real value in the race. He's apparently summered well too (though you rarely hear a trainer saying anything else!).

14s looks a good price and I have the feeling he will continue to be overlooked as he has been pigeonholed as soft/heavy ground horse. Of course the trainer may be wrong and he may well be ground dependant!

Interested to hear others thoughts.

 

[Innoko]

Personally, think it will be great for the 2 mile division if indeed Samcro does end up staying hurdling.

The thought of Samcro and Melon battling it out in Ireland. BvD and Summerville Boy here and then them all meeting up in March, is quite a prospect!

 

[Istabraq]

Vautour

I think Summerhill Boy is being underated but he needs to prove versatility on decent ground before I get confident on his CH bid.
I have nicked some 14/1 after discussion in here a few weeks back, I just have the view that 14/1 is a bit harsh on the horse who, despite mistakes as you say, won a Supreme, price is more a reflection on his lack of decent ground form and the threat of a clash with Buveur D’Air and Samcro

 

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone else think Summerville Boy could be something special?

The mistake two out in the Supreme cost him about 5 lengths and he went on to clatter the last - if that hadn't happened he would have been a very impressive winner having improved greatly over the course of the season. I am sure Tom George has said that he doesn't think he is ground dependant so if he can polish up his hurdling I think he could be in with a big shout coming up the hill and he looks the real value in the race. He's apparently summered well too (though you rarely hear a trainer saying anything else!).

14s looks a good price and I have the feeling he will continue to be overlooked as he has been pigeonholed as soft/heavy ground horse. Of course the trainer may be wrong and he may well be ground dependant!

Interested to hear others thoughts.

A few of us mentioned this horse around page 12... I was fairly downbeat on the form but I know plenty of good judges like him

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?14794-Champion-Hurdle-2019/page12

 

[Kevloaf]

Great post Kev, got my Thursday off to a flyer that....

Love that Kev!

Took some of the 7's, plus a bit on the exchanges which I can lay off already, would not take the 4's now on offer!

As I said at the time of the original post, it was all based on the market move, and I for one, still have this doubt, that they will actually go down the hurdle route.

Great post Kev...

Tend to agree with you. From Elliott’s yard alone I’d be far more inclined to take the 33’s about Labaik over the 4’s about Samcro!

:highly_amused: Thanks all..... Was just trying to keep the conversation going

 

[Kevloaf]

I fear that the tongue-in-cheek nature of the post to cause a bit of conversation may have been lost HF but you do rasie some good points (as does FM too - don't disagree with any of that) ... however it is purely price driven. I'm taking shots at Samcro because of the price, and price alone.... I understand HOW the price is as short as it is and the reasons for it... I just think they're wrong when it's easy to find holes if you go looking....

I’ll preface this by saying I’m not running down the bookies to get on at 4/1.

I don’t think any horse should really be 4/2 in a September and consider Tifer Roll every bit as poor value

You do realise Samcro hasn’t even been campaigned yet! If Elliot runs him over a normal Irish 2m hurdle campaign then what’s wrong with it?

Haha I do realise he hasn't been campaigned yet.... it was a tongue-in-cheek comment about the fact I think he should be chasing not hurdling.

He also beat Paloma blue eight lengths, 6 further back than he was in the Supreme, day he did so easily. Sharjah who no doubt hated the ground was out of sight and just won the Galway hurdle of top weight. I’m not sure what more Samcro could have done last year to improve his form?

He couldn't have done more, and he did it easily...but Buveur D'air would also be slapping those horses out of site wouldn't he?

If you are going back to his second bumper to knock his form my previous point is proved even further. Everyone who brings up GTT seems to miraculously forget that the horse was 16lengths back on Samcros win at Navan. Samcro was 4 vs GTT as a 6 year old, the latter beating shows that the bumper half length has no place in discussion about Samcros quality.

Or should I say that BDA has no chance because it once finished 4th in a bumper behind Potters Ground?

KNocking the bumper form was purely to be annoying, I'll take that point on the chin

Valid point about what he beat but to memory that was his most visually impressive bumper and is what had us all running to get 12/1 any race, because of the turn of foot he showed.

Your last point pretty much explains exactly how I feel..... if he was declared for the CH and was 12/1 I can assure you I would be mmaking it my biggest ever bet (each way!)

The entire post was about how AWFUL the price is at 4/1.

I always try and find a negative when I think a horse is always going to be too short for me to back ante post.
If I wasn't an ante post punter and wasn't placing bets from April onwards, I'd be quite happy not weighing in with my thoughts on his price as it'd be irrelevant in the main, but personally I feel we should highlight negatives in case anyone is looking at the decision to go for the CH (Which incidently STILL isn't certain according to ATR yeah right!) and thinks 4/1 is a good price.

I do often like the angle that if a horse is going to be shorter on the day it can't be a bad ante post bet, but I disagree with that in this case. I'd much rather wait and see with him, and I do hope If The Cap Fits gives him a beating

KInd regards,

Kevloaf - President of the Hurricane Fly wouldn't beat Buveur D'air Fanclub

 

[Scooby91]

I fear that the tongue-in-cheek nature of the post to cause a bit of conversation may have been lost HF but you do rasie some good points (as does FM too - don't disagree with any of that) ... however it is purely price driven. I'm taking shots at Samcro because of the price, and price alone.... I understand HOW the price is as short as it is and the reasons for it... I just think they're wrong when it's easy to find holes if you go looking....


Haha I do realise he hasn't been campaigned yet.... it was a tongue-in-cheek comment about the fact I think he should be chasing not hurdling.


He couldn't have done more, and he did it easily...but Buveur D'air would also be slapping those horses out of site wouldn't he?



Or should I say that BDA has no chance because it once finished 4th in a bumper behind Potters Ground?

KNocking the bumper form was purely to be annoying, I'll take that point on the chin



Your last point pretty much explains exactly how I feel..... if he was declared for the CH and was 12/1 I can assure you I would be mmaking it my biggest ever bet (each way!)

The entire post was about how AWFUL the price is at 4/1.

I always try and find a negative when I think a horse is always going to be too short for me to back ante post.
If I wasn't an ante post punter and wasn't placing bets from April onwards, I'd be quite happy not weighing in with my thoughts on his price as it'd be irrelevant in the main, but personally I feel we should highlight negatives in case anyone is looking at the decision to go for the CH (Which incidently STILL isn't certain according to ATR yeah right!) and thinks 4/1 is a good price.

I do often like the angle that if a horse is going to be shorter on the day it can't be a bad ante post bet, but I disagree with that in this case. I'd much rather wait and see with him, and I do hope If The Cap Fits gives him a beating

KInd regards,

Kevloaf - President of the Hurricane Fly wouldn't beat Buveur D'air Fanclub

The Only thing missing from the article was a link to pp and bf novice chase markets to make a donation.

 

[somer1]

Just read the full write up on Samcros target on the racing post site and they seem to think its the Champ hurdle

 

[Hurricane fly]

Kevloaf - President of the Hurricane Fly wouldn't beat Buveur D'air Fanclub

 

[SAMCRO]

4-1 is short but I wouldn't want to be laying it at those odds if it's his target

 

[Kevloaf]

Haha that would be a lonely fan club with no members

 

[BigChaang]

Alright, off the fence.... Samcro is THE WORST VALUE I have ever seen in my life for the Champion Hurdle in an ante post market.

If you take 4/1 about Samcro, when BVD is 7/2 - you should not be allowed to control your own finances.

Not only have we not had an official decision yet, and not even bothering to consider the fact he has to stay sound, he has done absolutely nothing to prove he's a better horse than Melon yet! It was insane that he went off 5/6 when Melon was 11/4 and they fell at the same fence, and were both going as well as each other so not justfied that yet.

Buveur D'air will absolutely destroy Samcro whenever they meet. Samcro should be chasing, Gigginstown are clueless about hurdlers. They bought Samcro from the PTP field to be a Gold Cup horse... Elliott should be strung up for the decision.... send Samcro to Colin Tizzard and he'll have a better season that these muppets. Finian's Oscar was campaigned better than this donkey.

The race prior to Cheltenham he beat Duc Des Genivres by 5.5L and that horse got beaten 23L by Pallasator and 53L by Dortmund Park. Imagine hanging your hat on that compared to 2 champion hurdle victories!

He hasn't got the speed for 2m! His P2P beating Elegant Escape is the most over rated piece of form I've ever seen but that didn't look like the run of a Champion Hurdler versus a 3rd place in an RSA! His second bumper win over Good Thyne Tara makes him bang average at best.

He also might not handle good spring ground, he's been winning in soft ground and heavy ground over and over again. One run in his life with good in the going and it was a bumper where he beat a horse called Cluan Dara who is rated 108

Worst Horse Ever

Kind regards,

Kevloaf
President of the Buveur Certainty Fanclub

Can I be Vice president or Secretary ?, B.D'air all day long for me !!:highly_amused:

 

[paz247]

Fehily didnt ride him this year ?

Apologies Mayo, he says he doesn’t think BD was as good last year in the CH not he didn’t feel 100%, I miss heard, he was talking about Summerville Boy running in it and then mentioned that about BD, only his opinion

 

[Innoko]

Samcro available at 8.8 for a fair few quid...

 

[billymag]

That's not a good sign for Samcro backers.. in fact worrying!! Could be a long festival for me if he goes chasing!

 

[Innoko]

That's not a good sign for Samcro backers.. in fact worrying!! Could be a long festival for me if he goes chasing!

I'm trusting Paddy and Betfair with regards the target!