Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018

[mayo]

Not the first time I've said this but I do NOT see how that is a negative...

Slow boats have won the Gold Cup in LOADS of renewals...

Lord Windemere, Syncronised, Bobs Worth to name just 3 in the last 6 seasons...
Coneygree also one paced, Don Cossack couldn't win a Ryanair or KG - and Sizing John's record at 3m is way way way better than shorter trips to round out all the last 6 renewals...

I am not saying a horse like Might Bite (who isn't a BOAT) can't win... but what I am saying is "slow boats" do WIN Gold Cups...

I agree with all this except bobs being a slow boat. See January 2011 trials day.

 

[Kevloaf]

Tbh Al the further into the past the race gets the better the performance of DS appears in my minds eye. He was a length behind MB, then a couple clear of Thistlecrack another 3 or so to the 4th, but they were then about 16 clear of Whisper. Before that he was 8lnths behind Top Notch over 2m 5f, a distance clearly too short given how he travelled and finished. I remember having a similar debate the year See More Business won, I'd had plenty of opportunities to back him at 33's and was talked out of it, I still backed him at 16's, a good return but not as good as it should have been. Since then I've always followed my gut instinct, and my gut instinct tells me he's not out of this

Is Double Shuffle better suited to Kempton?

Best results at 3m (Beating Go Conquer, small defeat to Pilgrims Bay and 1L defeat against Might Bite in the KG)

Been to CHeltenham on 4 occasions, all 2m4f though, form figures of 4/2/3/PU - not that bad really so maybe not.

 

[Gibbo82]

I keep changing my mind on this one, Mite Bite deserves to be favourite. I was leaning towards Road to Respect but I now think Native River might be where cash goes?

 

[Kevloaf]

I keep changing my mind on this one, Mite Bite deserves to be favourite. I was leaning towards Road to Respect but I now think Native River might be where cash goes?

Have you backed anything so far Gibbo?

 

[Istabraq]

I agree with all this except bobs being a slow boat. See January 2011 trials day.

Agree.
He also beat Sire de Grugy 9l over 2m in his nov hurdle days...

 

[Gibbo82]

Have you backed anything so far Gibbo?

Yes I have single bets on Road to respect and now Native River, with Mite Bite in some multiples. Think I might keep topping up my Native River bet. You?

 

[Robbante]

The boats need cut in the ground. Couldn’t consider the likes of native river and our duke on good ground

 

[Kevloaf]

The boats need cut in the ground. Couldn’t consider the likes of native river and our duke on good ground

:encouragement: I agree with that.

Good ground suits Might Bite more than any other horse in the race if we're talking about ground. Sizing John too?

 

[Robbante]

:encouragement: I agree with that.

Good ground suits Might Bite more than any other horse in the race if we're talking about ground. Sizing John too?

Might Bite/Road To Respect for me if good ground, haven’t fancied Sizing John all year, not sure why

 

[Kevloaf]

I feel I'm missing something with Road To Respect. I just don't see it on his form or profile really.

Last time, at Christmas he was all-out to beat Balko Des Flos who will be the Ryanair horse (and was 66/1 on the day) and Outlander who is far too inconsistant for me to gauge any solid form against. (He also got beaten by Outlander at Down Royal earlier in the season)

First time out this season he beat Kilcarry Bridge who was rated 137 by 1.5L. Sub Leuit was 5L back and Minella Rocco wasn't at the races that day... obviously.

Last run of last season - the infamous win over Yorkhill (I've seen some crazy numbers attached to how much ground Yorkhill gave away at those fences, but regardless, and you have to believe he would have been well beaten, left-handed? The other 4 in that race we're rubbish... and even Yorkhill has done nothing for that form since (albeit that isn't a stick to beat RTR with)

Before that run - he won the Grade 3 Brown Plate win at Cheltenham, but that was off 10-13 against Baron Alco, Bouvreuil and Thomas Crapper. A good performance sure, but I think a touch of the "Empire of Dirt" factor was given to him... same connections, so they assumed he'd also be a future GOld CUp horse (Which EoD didn't end up being and flopped at Cheltenham anyway). Winning that race isn't anywhere near Gold Cup quality or standard especially as it wasn't off top weight either.


He was 50/1 at the start of the season, and hasn't done anything wrong but equally, to now be 10/1 seems too short as none of that form above is good enough to place in a Gold Cup in my opinon.

If I'd taken a flyer at 50/1 start of the season I'd be happy enough to let it run now but only because I was beating the SP, not because I thought he was a 10/1 shot. On what he's done.

I'm open to changing my mind - nothing is set in stone, but anyone that does fancy Road To Respect, what is it that you fancy about him?

 

[Scooby91]

I feel I'm missing something with Road To Respect. I just don't see it on his form or profile really.

Last time, at Christmas he was all-out to beat Balko Des Flos who will be the Ryanair horse (and was 66/1 on the day) and Outlander who is far too inconsistant for me to gauge any solid form against. (He also got beaten by Outlander at Down Royal earlier in the season)

First time out this season he beat Kilcarry Bridge who was rated 137 by 1.5L. Sub Leuit was 5L back and Minella Rocco wasn't at the races that day... obviously.

Last run of last season - the infamous win over Yorkhill (I've seen some crazy numbers attached to how much ground Yorkhill gave away at those fences, but regardless, and you have to believe he would have been well beaten, left-handed? The other 4 in that race we're rubbish... and even Yorkhill has done nothing for that form since (albeit that isn't a stick to beat RTR with)

Before that run - he won the Grade 3 Brown Plate win at Cheltenham, but that was off 10-13 against Baron Alco, Bouvreuil and Thomas Crapper. A good performance sure, but I think a touch of the "Empire of Dirt" factor was given to him... same connections, so they assumed he'd also be a future GOld CUp horse (Which EoD didn't end up being and flopped at Cheltenham anyway). Winning that race isn't anywhere near Gold Cup quality or standard especially as it wasn't off top weight either.


He was 50/1 at the start of the season, and hasn't done anything wrong but equally, to now be 10/1 seems too short as none of that form above is good enough to place in a Gold Cup in my opinon.

If I'd taken a flyer at 50/1 start of the season I'd be happy enough to let it run now but only because I was beating the SP, not because I thought he was a 10/1 shot. On what he's done.

I'm open to changing my mind - nothing is set in stone, but anyone that does fancy Road To Respect, what is it that you fancy about him?

His consistency, you know he will turn up on the day. He Finds off the bridle and has a will to win. Has had the perfect prep and goes in fresh. And he's very much on the upgrade.

 

[Robbante]

I feel I'm missing something with Road To Respect. I just don't see it on his form or profile really.

Last time, at Christmas he was all-out to beat Balko Des Flos who will be the Ryanair horse (and was 66/1 on the day) and Outlander who is far too inconsistant for me to gauge any solid form against. (He also got beaten by Outlander at Down Royal earlier in the season)

First time out this season he beat Kilcarry Bridge who was rated 137 by 1.5L. Sub Leuit was 5L back and Minella Rocco wasn't at the races that day... obviously.

Last run of last season - the infamous win over Yorkhill (I've seen some crazy numbers attached to how much ground Yorkhill gave away at those fences, but regardless, and you have to believe he would have been well beaten, left-handed? The other 4 in that race we're rubbish... and even Yorkhill has done nothing for that form since (albeit that isn't a stick to beat RTR with)

Before that run - he won the Grade 3 Brown Plate win at Cheltenham, but that was off 10-13 against Baron Alco, Bouvreuil and Thomas Crapper. A good performance sure, but I think a touch of the "Empire of Dirt" factor was given to him... same connections, so they assumed he'd also be a future GOld CUp horse (Which EoD didn't end up being and flopped at Cheltenham anyway). Winning that race isn't anywhere near Gold Cup quality or standard especially as it wasn't off top weight either.


He was 50/1 at the start of the season, and hasn't done anything wrong but equally, to now be 10/1 seems too short as none of that form above is good enough to place in a Gold Cup in my opinon.

If I'd taken a flyer at 50/1 start of the season I'd be happy enough to let it run now but only because I was beating the SP, not because I thought he was a 10/1 shot. On what he's done.

I'm open to changing my mind - nothing is set in stone, but anyone that does fancy Road To Respect, what is it that you fancy about him?

He’s progressive, has the all important course form, and he hasn’t been bottomed yet. Connections have been insistent that there is more to come, and I’m sure that the gold cup will be where we see what he’s got in the tank. It might not be enough but I’d be confident this will be his best run yet, not sure many of the opposition you can say that about. Doubts that the likes of SJ can run up to the form of their runs last year

 

[darlojim]

For me this race revolves arond Might Bite, Sizing John, Killulragh Vic and whether Coney Island turns up or not. Really cant have NR after he couldnt win a poorer renewal last year and Our Duke doesnt jump efficiently enough. Road to respect I thought as a possible but Kev's comments regarding him are spot on and thats dismissed him for me. Good ground will see MB in full effect and with his jumping improving all the time I see him winning this years GC

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Bristol De Mai will not run in this race at the festival, NTD has confirmed.

 

[jonthehammer]

Just seen that. Wouldn’t have won anyway in my eyes.

 

[donka]

Mr Nichols is a Might Bite fan - His comments after the weekend...

I think Might Bite is the one we have all got to beat and from what I've seen he is head and shoulders above everything else at the moment.

"Native River was very good on Saturday, but was that a Gold Cup-winning performance? I don't know. The Irish form is cloudy and mixed. I think Might Bite has a huge amount of talent and is the one we have got to beat. He keeps winning and that's what you want."

 

[Kevloaf]

Bristol De Mai will not run in this race at the festival, NTD has confirmed.

A little surprising considering Blaklion isn't running either perhaps?

Not a likely winner for anyone on here from memory though

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Jessica Harrington saying Our Duke may run in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park on Saturday

 

[charlie]

Bristol De Mai will not run in this race at the festival, NTD has confirmed.

Good. I have blaklion at big prices so perhaps no BDM will mean Blaklion goes here

Sizing John still my pick. Native River shorter in the betting that SJ, which is an overreaction to his reappearance IMO.

 

[Istabraq]

Good. I have blaklion at big prices so perhaps no BDM will mean Blaklion goes here

Sizing John still my pick. Native River shorter in the betting that SJ, which is an overreaction to his reappearance IMO.

It's that heavy ground run that worries me with SJ....