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Supreme Novices 2018

Looks like Kalshnikov is heading clear seciond fav for this but has generated very little enthusiasm on this forum. Has anyone backed him or think he has a decent chance of winning this? I know it would be an unconventional route coming via a handicap. And if you fancy him does that bring in Summerville Boy? Neither are on my (long) list of Supreme bets and don't intend on adding either but interested to know people's thoughts all the same.
 
Looks like Kalshnikov is heading clear seciond fav for this but has generated very little enthusiasm on this forum. Has anyone backed him or think he has a decent chance of winning this? I know it would be an unconventional route coming via a handicap. And if you fancy him does that bring in Summerville Boy? Neither are on my (long) list of Supreme bets and don't intend on adding either but interested to know people's thoughts all the same.

Kalashnikov has had two very hard runs on his last two starts, it would be some training performance to get him 100% for Cheltenham. I was on him at Newbury and have followed him this season but I think the Betfair Hurdle was his main aim and Cheltenham is a slight afterthought due to his good run.

Summerville Boy seemed to relish the slog in heavy ground in the Tolworth and previously got outpaced at Cheltenham by Lalor & Western Ryder which doesn’t seem the strongest of form lines now despite his Tolworth win. I’ll be overlooking them (rightly or wrongly) in the Supreme and will be sticking with my one selection for the race ITCF e/w.
 
That race at Cheltenham was a farce, ended up being a sprint so I wouldn’t take too much attention on that run

If he was quick enough to win the Supreme he’d have won that race regardless.
 
If he was quick enough to win the Supreme he’d have won that race regardless.

Whilst I’m not advocating Summerville Boy as the most likely winner, I’m not sure how you dismiss a Grade 1 winner, where the runner up has just won the richest handicap hurdle to frank the form, in favour of ITCF who’s less than half the price and has won a class 4 at odds on & a class 2 on a right handed flat track & nothings come out of the race & won since?

Purely on value you’d have to have a look at Summerville - don’t forget Fehily lost his iron at the last at Sandown & also said it hated the soft ground - like I say, not the most likely winner but must have a place chance & currently 2 or 3 times the odds of ITCF & Kalashnikov.
 
I just personally doubt Summerville Boy has the speed to win the Supreme. I’m not saying it’s wise to hammer into ITCF’s at current prices. I’m on at 33’s and may have another nibble if Sky do there usual offer on the opening races of the day this year.
 
That race at Cheltenham was a farce, ended up being a sprint so I wouldn’t take too much attention on that run

Take a look at Altiors race at Cheltenham when he was a novice hurdler, was in the October or November’s meeting.
He’s the quickest novice I’ve seen for a long time, he just got home that day ahead of Maputo after going off slow

Just saying...
 
Summerville Boy was outpaced by Mr. One More & Slate House earlier in the season. They haven’t exactly been pulling up trees on recent runs.

He’s not a bad shout for a place at current odds but personally I don’t fancy him to win.
 
Chao, I’m on IFTC at 80.6..... would be more than happy to see him bowl in but it’s concerning he hasn’t race in a graded race this season

At least Summerville has proven himself. Funnily, he’s a horse I haven’t back. My point is, don’t discount grade 1/2 horses so quickly.
 
Summerville Boy was outpaced by Mr. One More & Slate House earlier in the season. They haven’t exactly been pulling up trees on recent runs.

He’s not a bad shout for a place at current odds but personally I don’t fancy him to win.

Fair do’s - it would be a dull world if we all had the same opinion - all I’d say is don’t let that one run( when everything went wrong cloud your judgement) - this was the post race thoughts of Fehily as printed in the racing post:

“A race with a rich Grade 1 history produced one of its bigger upsets when the outsider of the five runners Summerville Boy revelled in being given a championship pace to aim at over Sandown's tough two miles.

The sponsors' 20-1 with a non-runner no bet concession for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle might be popular after winning rider Noel Fehily reported the six-year-old hated the heavy ground while showing his last race form all wrong.

"They crawled round last time and you can forget that race," said Fehily after debriefing winning owner Roger Brookhouse and Sophie George, wife of winning trainer Tom George.

"You will see a better horse on better ground and if it is good ground at Cheltenham possibly the Ballymore might suit more but he has plenty of speed."

"He will be twice the horse next year – he is still very babyish," added Fehily, who lost an iron momentarily as Summerville Boy stuttered over the last to give Kalashnikov a glimmer of hope in what had looked a vain chase up the straight.

Winning connections were thankful to Mont Des Avaloirs for setting the sort of pace you expect in the cauldron of Cheltenham in March and the Paul Nicholls runner deserves credit for taking an albeit distant third as favourite Western Ryder got bogged down in the home straight.”
 
Is contesting a graded race that important to ITCF chances? It didn't stop Menorah winning the Supreme in 2010.

I don't see it as a negative at all. He's done all that has been asked of him but I'm far more concerned about HF's poor form and (to a lesser extent) the lack of a recent run for ITCF.
 
ITCF has trained with the Supreme in mind all season and has beaten what was put in front of him convincingly whilst showing a nice turn of foot. I would have liked to see him up in class possibly the once but Harry Fry and Noel Fehily have both come out and said he doesn’t take a lot of hard racing well yet and by there own admission he was slightly over when he finished 4th im the Aintree bumper last year. Your taking a chance that Fry will have him 100% on the day but he knows the horse best so I’m inclined to trust him. As FM said Frys recent poor form is a worry but there’s still four weeks for him to get firing.
 
Wouldn’t it be nice to know which Fehily would ride if he had a free choice!
 
Is contesting a graded race that important to ITCF chances? It didn't stop Menorah winning the Supreme in 2010.

I don't see it as a negative at all. He's done all that has been asked of him but I'm far more concerned about HF's poor form and (to a lesser extent) the lack of a recent run for ITCF.

FM,
One could say he's dodged all the decent trials. Good luck with him, but I can't have him at all.
 
FM,
One could say he's dodged all the decent trials. Good luck with him, but I can't have him at all.

The race at Kempton is historically a good trial for this race and one of the key reasons that I like him for the Supreme.

To be honest, I wouldn't be in a rush to back at his current price because he'll probably be as big, if not bigger, on the day.
 
I’ve drawn up a wish list. One of them is running in a graded race - obviously running in a graded race doesn’t mean the field are any good. It just something I wanted to see ITCF achieve his year, or beating a decent horse

I like the horse.... l like the way he won his races this year. There are plenty of positives about him...
would I back him now at 8/1, properly not. I seriously think he’ll place here but will win at aintree in April
 
Kalashnikov got loads of positive mentions in this weeks review podcasts .... doesn't look like anyone has gotten him on their minds for this at the current price.

The most interest "snippet" was that he won the Betfair off the highest mark since My Tent Or Yours.

I like to have horses covered BUT 6/1 NRNB is shorter than I can take advantage of....

I'm a little bit annoyed that I didn't take a NRNB price before his run in the Tolworth which would usually be my method .... has anyone got a good price about him?
 
Kalashnikov got loads of positive mentions in this weeks review podcasts .... doesn't look like anyone has gotten him on their minds for this at the current price.

The most interest "snippet" was that he won the Betfair off the highest mark since My Tent Or Yours.

I like to have horses covered BUT 6/1 NRNB is shorter than I can take advantage of....

I'm a little bit annoyed that I didn't take a NRNB price before his run in the Tolworth which would usually be my method .... has anyone got a good price about him?

I’ve got 0.6pts on at 33s, nothing to shout about though as have had about half the novice hurdlers in training at one point or another
 
Kalashnikov got loads of positive mentions in this weeks review podcasts .... doesn't look like anyone has gotten him on their minds for this at the current price.

The most interest "snippet" was that he won the Betfair off the highest mark since My Tent Or Yours.

I like to have horses covered BUT 6/1 NRNB is shorter than I can take advantage of....

I'm a little bit annoyed that I didn't take a NRNB price before his run in the Tolworth which would usually be my method .... has anyone got a good price about him?


I got 1.5pts at 33.0 on exchange (11th jan). Really likes his two wins prior to Tolworth
Him and ITCF where the ones that catch my eye at the start of the season

For some reason, I didn’t go in too hard on Kalashnikov for the Betfair Hurdle. Think I was out off by connections saying they didn’t want it too soft. Lessons learnt for me, if I like the horse at the start of the season and continued to follow it in by backing AP for supreme the. Bloody well back it hard for a handicap race where he was pretty well in - grhhhhhhh