Champion Hurdle 2019

[Faugheen_Machine]

GE said no decision has been made yet on ATR earlier. I'm not sure I believe him:highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

I’m rather deflated with this news - really wanted to see him go chasing but hopefully he might do the Champion Hurdle/Gold Cup double in the years to come - not asking or expecting too much!

I'm going to let the dust settle before I properly react to the news and the prices. I have just spent 20 minutes writing a post but I've deleted it in case I say something I regret :highly_amused:

I haven't actually staked any points at all in singles in the CH market yet, my book is completely made up in "Free Bets" (Which is due to the uncertainty around targets so far) and I doubt very much it'll be a race I can make a book in now.... the positive being I have plenty of time to assess the situation and 'pick a side'.

The incredibly pragmatic view is that the there is less that a quarter of a point between them (best prices)
3.77/1 - 2 time Champion Hurdler
4/1 - Ballymore winner

As I said though, I'm going to let the dust settle!

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Don't be sitting on the fence Kev. We need a statement to hold you to.

I'm in the Samcro camp. It's a tight call but I just can't see them staying over hurdles unless they believe he'll beat Buveur D'air - and they have to be confident to make that call.

All that said, BD is a bigger winner for me at the moment.

 

[somer1]

Can see Michael O'Leary mopping up the price for which race Samcro goes for now

 

[Hurricane fly]

I know BDA is a two time winner but I really don’t rate him.

I don’t believe Melon had some miraculous stone + improvement in order to be able to push him so close. Or if you use Mick Jazz as the the reference point as he seems pretty consistent do I believe a 3.5-4 length beating of him suggests a real animal? Not particularly.

BDAs peak RPR(insure where to find top OR) is 8 pounds below Faugheen and below other champion hurdlers such HF and Binocular and level with Oscar Whisky.

Samcro has 9lbs to find on official ratings, there was a stat in another thread showing that 6year olds in the Arkle OM average improve 15.5lbs. Now that’s a)not an exact science and b)different circumstance but BDA has improved 15lbs since his supreme 3rd so nothing make me think it can’t be replicated

I no doubt lost out on plenty of winnings in March thanks to my view but I’ll be sticking to them this year even more so if Samcro does turn up

 

[Leman14]

Not sure what to make of this news...

From a punting perspective, I have been chipping away at BDA for this race and Samcro (Any Race) with free bets since March, so have a decent position BUT from a racing perspective, I get far more excitement from chases and that’s where I want the “best” horses to run.

(I’m not downgrading the Champion Hurdle, but I hope you know what I’m getting at)

 

[Istabraq]

I smell a Beach Road moment coming....

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I smell a Beach Road moment coming....

You're showing your age with that reference Ista

 

[Leman14]

I smell a Beach Road moment coming....

I had to google that ^^^^^ :highly_amused:

 

[Istabraq]

No point fighting the clock, my first ever festival.
if you thought last seasons ground was bad you’d have made that festival unraceable....

 

[Kevloaf]

Don't be sitting on the fence Kev. We need a statement to hold you to.

I'm in the Samcro camp. It's a tight call but I just can't see them staying over hurdles unless they believe he'll beat Buveur D'air - and they have to be confident to make that call.

All that said, BD is a bigger winner for me at the moment.

Alright, off the fence.... Samcro is THE WORST VALUE I have ever seen in my life for the Champion Hurdle in an ante post market.

If you take 4/1 about Samcro, when BVD is 7/2 - you should not be allowed to control your own finances.

Not only have we not had an official decision yet, and not even bothering to consider the fact he has to stay sound, he has done absolutely nothing to prove he's a better horse than Melon yet! It was insane that he went off 5/6 when Melon was 11/4 and they fell at the same fence, and were both going as well as each other so not justfied that yet.

Buveur D'air will absolutely destroy Samcro whenever they meet. Samcro should be chasing, Gigginstown are clueless about hurdlers. They bought Samcro from the PTP field to be a Gold Cup horse... Elliott should be strung up for the decision.... send Samcro to Colin Tizzard and he'll have a better season that these muppets. Finian's Oscar was campaigned better than this donkey.

The race prior to Cheltenham he beat Duc Des Genivres by 5.5L and that horse got beaten 23L by Pallasator and 53L by Dortmund Park. Imagine hanging your hat on that compared to 2 champion hurdle victories!

He hasn't got the speed for 2m! His P2P beating Elegant Escape is the most over rated piece of form I've ever seen but that didn't look like the run of a Champion Hurdler versus a 3rd place in an RSA! His second bumper win over Good Thyne Tara makes him bang average at best.

He also might not handle good spring ground, he's been winning in soft ground and heavy ground over and over again. One run in his life with good in the going and it was a bumper where he beat a horse called Cluan Dara who is rated 108

Worst Horse Ever

Kind regards,

Kevloaf
President of the Buveur Certainty Fanclub

 

[paz247]

I don’t know if anyone caught the Noel Fehily interview on ATR the other day, he said that basically BD didn’t feel 100% when he won the CH?? Maybe this might explain why Melon and Mick Jazz got as close as they did? When Melon went past I thought he was going to go away and win but BD battled back strongly to get the win. Agree that Samcro shouldn’t be as close in the betting yet

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

.....and I thought you'd have an opinion.

It's a defensive position by the bookies at the moment considering a decision hadn't been 'announced', but in all likelihood, the decision has been made. They can't hold the bigger prices and wait for an announcement as the money starts to come.

Samcro has to improve 11lb on ratings and that is surely within his capability. By Jack Kennedy's own admission he gave Samcro a poor ride in the Ballymore, keeping wide throughout and hitting the front too soon. Even then, he still never looked like getting beat in what was (probably) the strongest novice hurdle race of the festival.

Samcro has a blistering turn of pace and will improve for better ground imo. He only has the rating he has because of the horses he's beat, he's running against novices so it's unlikely he'll get an official rating any higher than 160. Wait until he destroys Melon, he'll be rated higher than Buveur D'air before Cheltenham.

NJH might consider running Buveur D'air over fences again when the news breaks

I'm not taking 4/1 btw, not yet anyway!

 

[billymag]

BD scoped badly after Chelt. I hardly ever get excited about seeing horses run specific races, I more look forward to festivals, but I literally cant wait to see Samco run over 2 miles, id be shocked if he didnt turn out better than Melon. Whether he can beat a 100% BD is another question!! Agree with Kev the prices at the moment are wrong although there is a real possibility that this could be the biggest he is going to be all season.
Just hoping O'leary does let him take his chance, I accept I maybe in a minority with that though.

 

[Istabraq]

Great post Kev, got my Thursday off to a flyer that....

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Love that Kev!

Took some of the 7's, plus a bit on the exchanges which I can lay off already, would not take the 4's now on offer!

As I said at the time of the original post, it was all based on the market move, and I for one, still have this doubt, that they will actually go down the hurdle route.

 

[Hurricane fly]

I’ll preface this by saying I’m not running down the bookies to get on at 4/1.

I don’t think any horse should really be 4/2 in a September and consider Tifer Roll every bit as poor value

Elliott should be strung up for the decision.... send Samcro to Colin Tizzard and he'll have a better season that these muppets. Finian's Oscar was campaigned better than this donkey.

You do realise Samcro hasn’t even been campaigned yet! If Elliot runs him over a normal Irish 2m hurdle campaign then what’s wrong with it?

The race prior to Cheltenham he beat Duc Des Genivres by 5.5L and that horse got beaten 23L by Pallasator and 53L by Dortmund Park. Imagine hanging your hat on that compared to 2 champion hurdle victories!

He also beat Paloma blue eight lengths, 6 further back than he was in the Supreme, day he did so easily. Sharjah who no doubt hated the ground was out of sight and just won the Galway hurdle of top weight. I’m not sure what more Samcro could have done last year to improve his form?

His second bumper win over Good Thyne Tara makes him bang average at best.

If you are going back to his second bumper to knock his form my previous point is proved even further. Everyone who brings up GTT seems to miraculously forget that the horse was 16lengths back on Samcros win at Navan. Samcro was 4 vs GTT as a 6 year old, the latter beating shows that the bumper half length has no place in discussion about Samcros quality.

Or should I say that BDA has no chance because it once finished 4th in a bumper behind Potters Ground?


Valid point about what he beat but to memory that was his most visually impressive bumper and is what had us all running to get 12/1 any race, because of the turn of foot he showed.



Signed

Hurricane Fly

Leader of the U.K. SAMCRO chapter

 

[SAMCRO]

We moan about the quality of the 2m hurdle division then the best novice may be kept over hurdles and we moan more. I'm looking forward to hopefully a champion hurdle of BDA, Samcro, Melon, Summerville Boy, If the cap fits etc

 

[robith]

We moan about the quality of the 2m hurdle division then the best novice may be kept over hurdles and we moan more. I'm looking forward to hopefully a champion hurdle of BDA, Samcro, Melon, Summerville Boy, If the cap fits etc

The scenes when ITCF wins

 

[SeanRock]

Great post Kev...

Tend to agree with you. From Elliott’s yard alone I’d be far more inclined to take the 33’s about Labaik over the 4’s about Samcro!