Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Eggs]

....from what I can see, Janidil is now 20-1 with Unibet for the NH Chase. Best price is 33-1 with 365.

 

[JackieMoon33]

In my opinion Janidil seemed to be ridden to get the trip in the AB as he’d never raced beyond 2m2f before and that was before Willie had him. Did he plug on, one paced and need further or did the tank empty? Personally I’d be inclined to say the latter and he’ll be back over shorter next season.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Now that everyone seems to be getting stuck into things and more diaries are appearing, I thought I’d get some more of my shortlist posted. This one was in danger of falling through the cracks as he’d gone on to last years list as a novice hurdler but after one run was immediately put on the ‘one for next season’ list. When starting my 20/21 list I somehow overlooked him until I went back to check I’d covered everything.

Ask For Glory - Paul Nicholls - RSA
Rewind two years ago and this fella was lining up in the Champion Bumper after an impressive debut at Chepstow where he’d posted very good figures. Nicholls is not known for having many festival bumper runners but he took his chance and finished 9th behind Envoi Allen in what proved to be one of the better bumpers in recent times. It was probably of non surprise that he was unable to get in the mix as he’d been bought to be a staying chaser for £280,000 after his impressive PtP win.

Fast forward to November 2019 and (after a customary wind op) he was pitched in on hurdles debut in a decent enough field over an inadequate 2m. He was still there pitching at the last where he was impeded by a faller and then was tenderly ridden home in fourth. The result was as expected and in true Nicholls ‘future staying chaser’ fashion, he was kept off the track until February 2020 where he reappeared over a more suitable 2m5f at Wincanton. He demolished a poor field that day leading from pretty much start to finish without getting out of second gear.

There is not a huge amount of form in the book but given the fact he was always a patient, long term prospect, it’s hardly surprising he wasn’t pitched in at the deep end again over hurdles. He looks like he possesses a real engine and has the size to make a chaser, especially with another summer to fill out. He’s also with the right trainer to make the most of this type of horse too. Whilst the AB looked good in 2020 and the RSA could be a hot race next season, it would not surprise me if Ask For Glory was better than his current price of 40/1 and could become a contender. Even as a cash out option his price will contract quickly due to the trainer and colours if he makes a successful start.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Fair shout Jackie.

I may be missing some, but trying to gauge Paul's potential novice chasers for the coming season, so far come up with Quel Destin, Pic D'Orhy, Enrilo, Thyme White (although flat bred, so wouldn't top of my list), Calva D'Auge, Malaya, Posh Trish & Ecco (although another flat bred), including your one Ask For Glory. Not many 3m chasing types there with the exception of your shout, so could be a good thing, in terms of getting on side.

I've left the four year olds, Solo and Sir Psycho out, as Paul never seems in a rush for them to go over fences and I suspect they will have another season over hurdles.

 

[Nortons who]

Fair shout Jackie.

I may be missing some, but trying to gauge Paul's potential novice chasers for the coming season, so far come up with Quel Destin, Pic D'Orhy, Enrilo, Thyme White (although flat bred, so wouldn't top of my list), Calva D'Auge, Malaya, Posh Trish & Ecco (although another flat bred), including your one Ask For Glory. Not many 3m chasing types there with the exception of your shout, so could be a good thing, in terms of getting on side.

I've left the four year olds, Solo and Sir Psycho out, as Paul never seems in a rush for them to go over fences and I suspect they will have another season over hurdles.

Paul Nicholls or Harry Durham (I can't recall which one) hinted that McFabulous might go Novice chasing this coming season* after resuming initially over hurdles. I have backed him already for the Stayers Hurdle but if he can jump a fence then I'm wondering whether the RSA could be his target rather than shorter distances.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Paul Nicholls or Harry Durham (I can't recall which one) hinted that McFabulous might go Novice chasing this coming season* after resuming initially over hurdles. I have backed him already for the Stayers Hurdle but if he can jump a fence then I'm wondering whether the RSA could be his target rather than shorter distances.

I thought he was staying over hurdles. He was the one I am most interested to go novice chasing, as per previous and last seasons posts about him, but left him out purely on the basis I thought he was staying over hurdles.

Exciting if he does go over fences!

 

[The King Pimm]

I sound like a broken record sorry but Paul Nicholls also has Trevelyns Corn who cost connections £400k. Nicholls has always stated he was purchased with Chasing the plan. He had a poor hurdles campaign and was not seen much last season but he may emerge from the shadows this year and may end up fulfilling his potential

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I sound like a broken record sorry but Paul Nicholls also has Trevelyns Corn who cost connections £400k. Nicholls has always stated he was purchased with Chasing the plan. He had a poor hurdles campaign and was not seen much last season but he may emerge from the shadows this year and may end up fulfilling his potential

Was everything OK with the horse after being PU LTO?

Be 8 next season, bit of a worry he's only been seen 4 times under rules, has he had issues?

Been inconsistent so far in his career, not sure that is one of the hallmarks to be one of Nicholls' better horses.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah I know the AB loves a "flopper" going forward so to speak, just don't see the appeal of him over further. We all know Willie don't arse about with the brown plate/Ultima ,only intermediate trip of the Marsh not many will want to take on Envoi if sticking there potentially so could end up an RSA type not that he's light there next season. If Gordy had him he'd be plotting him to lose a few lbs already and he'd be a steady anyrace poke.

I'm with you Outlaw, regarding Janidil and the NH Chase.

He's got as much handicap plot credentials (standard with every JP horse :highly_amused as he has NH Chase or RSA prospects, IMO. Any Race surely the way to go.

Breeding would suggest he isn't a stayer, despite an OK run in the Bartlett. Shown enough speed over 2m that wouldn't surprise me if he ended up at the intermediate trip.

 

[nortonscoin200]

I'm with you Outlaw, regarding Janidil and the NH Chase.

He's got as much handicap plot credentials (standard with every JP horse :highly_amused as he has NH Chase or RSA prospects, IMO. Any Race surely the way to go.

Breeding would suggest he isn't a stayer, despite an OK run in the Bartlett. Shown enough speed over 2m that wouldn't surprise me if he ended up at the intermediate trip.

I agree with you CoD that Any Race is probably now the way to go with Janidil now the best price has been cut to 33s - as Hills offer 22-1 with boost twar.

But if Janidil goes chasing this season and Willie tries to find a race for him to win at the Festival I reckon he's almost bound to decide the NH Chase is by far his easiest target.

I don't think he's going to win any of the other championship novice chases and - as Outlaw said - Willie is unlikely to target him at a handicap.

To say his run in the AB was "ok" is probably being a bit harsh imo. I was disappointed because I thought Janidil was a genuine contender. But he travelled very comfortably through the race and basically got tapped for toe in the last furlong.

I really rate the first four in the AB and Janidil beat the rest comfortably enough.

It's likely he won't have to face anything as classy as the top four in the AB if he lines up for the 4-miler.

But I entirely accept what you say about JP's handicap plot credentials. It wouldn't surprise me to see him turn up in the Coral Hurdle where he would certainly be of interest which is why the any race is probably the safest strategy at this stage.

But if Janidil's first race next season is over jumps I'd say it's 75 per cent certain he ends up in the NH Chase.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I agree with you CoD that Any Race is probably now the way to go with Janidil now the best price has been cut to 33s - as Hills offer 22-1 with boost twar.

But if Janidil goes chasing this season and Willie tries to find a race for him to win at the Festival I reckon he's almost bound to decide the NH Chase is by far his easiest target.

I don't think he's going to win any of the other championship novice chases and - as Outlaw said - Willie is unlikely to target him at a handicap.

To say his run in the AB was "ok" is probably being a bit harsh imo. I was disappointed because I thought Janidil was a genuine contender. But he travelled very comfortably through the race and basically got tapped for toe in the last furlong.

I really rate the first four in the AB and Janidil beat the rest comfortably enough.

It's likely he won't have to face anything as classy as the top four in the AB if he lines up for the 4-miler.

But I entirely accept what you say about JP's handicap plot credentials. It wouldn't surprise me to see him turn up in the Coral Hurdle where he would certainly be of interest which is why the any race is probably the safest strategy at this stage.

But if Janidil's first race next season is over jumps I'd say it's 75 per cent certain he ends up in the NH Chase.

Did he get tapped for toe or did the tank empty?

The way he was ridden you'd have expected him to have been doing his best work at then end of the race. Although the NH Chase is the easiest of the novice races, you still have to stay the trip.

 

[The King Pimm]

Was everything OK with the horse after being PU LTO?

Be 8 next season, bit of a worry he's only been seen 4 times under rules, has he had issues?

Been inconsistent so far in his career, not sure that is one of the hallmarks to be one of Nicholls' better horses.

I don’t know CoD, I’ve not seen or heard anything mentioned about Trevelyns Corn since his last race so there may well be an issue with him. I’d imagine the owners will be gutted if he is injured or something is a miss as they paid a fortune for him.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I agree with you CoD that Any Race is probably now the way to go with Janidil now the best price has been cut to 33s - as Hills offer 22-1 with boost twar.

But if Janidil goes chasing this season and Willie tries to find a race for him to win at the Festival I reckon he's almost bound to decide the NH Chase is by far his easiest target.

I don't think he's going to win any of the other championship novice chases and - as Outlaw said - Willie is unlikely to target him at a handicap.

To say his run in the AB was "ok" is probably being a bit harsh imo. I was disappointed because I thought Janidil was a genuine contender. But he travelled very comfortably through the race and basically got tapped for toe in the last furlong.

I really rate the first four in the AB and Janidil beat the rest comfortably enough.

It's likely he won't have to face anything as classy as the top four in the AB if he lines up for the 4-miler.

But I entirely accept what you say about JP's handicap plot credentials. It wouldn't surprise me to see him turn up in the Coral Hurdle where he would certainly be of interest which is why the any race is probably the safest strategy at this stage.

But if Janidil's first race next season is over jumps I'd say it's 75 per cent certain he ends up in the NH Chase.

Points taken NC, and if you have the 50's then fair play, but he'd have to show he stays first, as I also agree with Jackie, I think the tank emptied, I don't think he was done for pace in Bartlett.

Drop in trip or a handicap is what I expect, to be perfectly honest, and he interests me at the 'any race' price for either of them options.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I don’t know CoD, I’ve not seen or heard anything mentioned about Trevelyns Corn since his last race so there may well be an issue with him. I’d imagine the owners will be gutted if he is injured or something is a miss as they paid a fortune for him.

The amount anyone pays is largely insignificant, in terms of what they do on the track, but of course you'd feel for connections should something have happened, though no actual news, maybe someone can drop the Nicholls yard a message to find out?

 

[nortonscoin200]

Points taken NC, and if you have the 50's then fair play, but he'd have to show he stays first, as I also agree with Jackie, I think the tank emptied, I don't think he was done for pace in Bartlett.

Drop in trip or a handicap is what I expect, to be perfectly honest, and he interests me at the 'any race' price for either of them options.

Confession time: I do have a bit of a soft spot for Janidil and probably make excuses for him a bit too readily.

You and Jackie and Outlaw are probably right about the NH Chase. In which case I'll happily settle for him bolting up in the Coral Cup!!

 

[JackieMoon33]

Confession time: I do have a bit of a soft spot for Janidil and probably make excuses for him a bit too readily.

You and Jackie and Outlaw are probably right about the NH Chase. In which case I'll happily settle for him bolting up in the Coral Cup!!

I like the horse too to be fair and would have backed him in a handicap at Cheltenham as I thought he was still on a good mark. Turned out they didn’t need him for the County or Coral as they had them covered easily.

 

[Bonjers]

The amount anyone pays is largely insignificant, in terms of what they do on the track, but of course you'd feel for connections should something have happened, though no actual news, maybe someone can drop the Nicholls yard a message to find out?

He was definitely out of training after the horror show at Chepstow. Nicholls updates his website with horses who are out of training pretty regularly and he was in there for the rest of the season.

 

[somer1]

Paul Nicholls or Harry Durham (I can't recall which one) hinted that McFabulous might go Novice chasing this coming season* after resuming initially over hurdles. I have backed him already for the Stayers Hurdle but if he can jump a fence then I'm wondering whether the RSA could be his target rather than shorter distances.

Skybet has McFabulous at 16s for any race

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Does anyone else get put off backing Nicholl’s horses at Cheltenham these days? He’s still the master at mopping up big races on a Saturday through the season but I just can’t really back his for the Festival anymore. Henderson, Mullins and Elliot stronghold

 

[Lobos]

Does anyone else get put off backing Nicholl’s horses at Cheltenham these days? He’s still the master at mopping up big races on a Saturday through the season but I just can’t really back his for the Festival anymore. Henderson, Mullins and Elliot stronghold

Agreed. He does seem to climax a little earlier. Probably planned as he realises how tough it is at the fez taking on the 2 big guns.