Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[taylorch1990]

Which of the Albert Bartlett horses could we see going for the 4 miler next year? Always handy to find the short priced one Patrick will ride for example

Think a few of us got big prices about Aione after Patrick mentioned it for the 4 Miler on a podcast on YouTube.

 

[Eggs]

Listed at 153 handicap mark on Racing Post over hurdles. That puts him out of contention for Festival Handicap Chases, and close to the top of the weights for the Coral Cup/Pertemps. I dont imagine he will stay hurdling, but stranger things.....

TWAR would be good if 14s or 16s.

....16-1 (before boost) in Hills any race market.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

....16-1 (before boost) in Hills any race market.

This is what I backed initially, although odds a bit stinge compared with previous seasons.

 

[archie]

Hurdle ratings for horses towards the top of the novice chase markets.

160 Envoi Allen/Klassical Dream
159 Cornerstone Lad/Darver Star/Shishkin
158 Abacadabras
156 Emitom
155 Asterion Forlonge/Quel Destin
153 Easywork
152 Felix Desjy/Monkfish
151 Pic D'Orhy
150 Fury Road/Latest Exhibition/The Big Getaway
147 Chantry House/Concertista
143 Column Of Fire
142 Diol Ker

No rating - Ask For Glory/Captain Guinness

 

[taylorch1990]

Was looking at the ratings yesterday Archie, almost pulled the trigger on Cornerstone Lad at 50s for the arkle.

 

[archie]

If I had to use time limited free bets, I'd think that if 3 horses were rated 159 it was odd that one was 4/1 and the others were 25/1 and 50/1. Personally, I'd take 25/1 Darver Star over Cornerstone Lad but that's a fine judgement call this far out.

What the ratings do indicate is that, officially at least, the Ballymore was a better race than the Bartlett which adds more grist to SW's mill.

 

[The King Pimm]

Listed at 153 handicap mark on Racing Post over hurdles. That puts him out of contention for Festival Handicap Chases, and close to the top of the weights for the Coral Cup/Pertemps. I dont imagine he will stay hurdling, but stranger things.....

TWAR would be good if 14s or 16s.

Thanks SW :encouragement:
He’s still 16’s with Hills TWAR with a boost up to 17.5. That’s pretty good value for a horse who handled the course well. It’s an unpopular opinion I know but it’s reasons like you stated that I wish there was an extra day at the Festival for a few handicaps for horses stuck in no mans land regarding their rating, a few more grade 2’s maybe. Anyway I’ve backed Easywork TWAR for now.

 

[The King Pimm]

Hurdle ratings for horses towards the top of the novice chase markets.

160 Envoi Allen/Klassical Dream
159 Cornerstone Lad/Darver Star/Shishkin
158 Abacadabras
156 Emitom
155 Asterion Forlonge/Quel Destin
153 Easywork
152 Felix Desjy/Monkfish
151 Pic D'Orhy
150 Fury Road/Latest Exhibition/The Big Getaway
147 Chantry House/Concertista
143 Column Of Fire
142 Diol Ker

No rating - Ask For Glory/Captain Guinness

I think those ratings are a bit harsh for Klassical Dream and Felix Desjay considering there results and lack of racing last season.

 

[SamuelP]

I'm liking the thinking with Easywork and the RSA Saxon. Take Envoi out of the Ballymore and Easywork would have been a decent winner and far far shorter. He just seems very versatile in terms of trip so difficult to pinpoint an actual race target. Definately travels well and hit the line well in the Ballymore, saw the race out better than The Big Getaway who reminds me a bit of Allaho (big scopey horse that travels well, races prominent but seems to find little for pressure).

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm liking the thinking with Easywork and the RSA Saxon. Take Envoi out of the Ballymore and Easywork would have been a decent winner and far far shorter. He just seems very versatile in terms of trip so difficult to pinpoint an actual race target. Definately travels well and hit the line well in the Ballymore, saw the race out better than The Big Getaway who reminds me a bit of Allaho (big scopey horse that travels well, races prominent but seems to find little for pressure).

With regards to The Big Getaway, I think, personally, he found plenty for pressure. Kicked off the home bend, problem was, from the third hurdle in the race he took up the race and was then a target for every other horse in the race, as he set the fractions, when you have a class horse like Envoi Allen in the field you will pay for it, but I wouldn't say TBG didn't stick to the task, only 3 3/4 lengths behind Easywork.

If TBG can learn to settle better he will be absolutely fine over three miles and can see him reversing the form or going very close to doing so with Easywork. TBG is a big unit of a horse and also fairly clumsy (expected of a novice) over his hurdles, IMO, fences should (hopefully) sort that out.

 

[Quevega]

I've mentioned previously that my enthusiasm for Easywork chasing faded a little when I noticed his size against the other Ballymore runners.
I've only backed for the arkle in case he goes chasing so far, but like others have said, he could end up in a lot of races next year (hurdles and chasing)
Looking at the Bartlett & Ballymore for potential stayers, I'd say that there are more obvious types, that look a a bit more dopey/relaxed and Lollopy. Or just downright slow.

Whereas Easywork looks like he wants to get on with it and might just run better when allowed to just run.

However, I agree that they buy staying chasers 99% of the time.
And they may well go up in trip with him if Envoi is indeed being aimed at the Marsh and his season goes well enough.

I suppose another steer towards the arkle would be Gordon's lack of potential runners at 2 miles, and this horse is better equipped than most of Elliots string to go this way, especially from this years crop of novice hurdlers. Assuming that Abacadabras stays over hurdles that is.

 

[SamuelP]

With regards to The Big Getaway, I think, personally, he found plenty for pressure. Kicked off the home bend, problem was, from the third hurdle in the race he took up the race and was then a target for every other horse in the race, as he set the fractions, when you have a class horse like Envoi Allen in the field you will pay for it, but I wouldn't say TBG didn't stick to the task, only 3 3/4 lengths behind Easywork.

If TBG can learn to settle better he will be absolutely fine over three miles and can see him reversing the form or going very close to doing so with Easywork. TBG is a big unit of a horse and also fairly clumsy (expected of a novice) over his hurdles, IMO, fences should (hopefully) sort that out.

Maybe i was a bit harsh with the wording but for me there have been a couple of occasions where others have looked stronger in the finish than him. The other race is the maiden at Leopardstown where he was fav and got beaten into 4th. Yes he clobbered the last hurdle but after this he is matching strides with Francin before Francin picks up and goes past him, at which point The Big Getaway seems to kind of give it up for me and ends up 4th. And when headed in the Ballymore he seemed to not find much thereafter, and Easywork pulls away from him confortably in the end. Maybe it's a case of him being a little one paced at the trip and needing the extra half mile I dunno, but something about him tells me he's not finding all that much. I know I'd certainly prefer to be on Monkfish in a finish. And I get that TBG looks every inch a chaser and that he was a bit green last season and has plenty of potential. I'm just not interested in backing him until I see more evidence next season.

 

[Quevega]

Anyone backed

King Roland ?

Looks bred for staying chasing and I think they thought he was the second coming before he got beat on trials day.

Not backed him myself, just wondered.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Anyone backed

King Roland ?

Looks bred for staying chasing and I think they thought he was the second coming before he got beat on trials day.

Not backed him myself, just wondered.

No, but would definitely be interested.

 

[nortonscoin200]

Which of the Albert Bartlett horses could we see going for the 4 miler next year? Always handy to find the short priced one Patrick will ride for example

I've backed Janidil who is 50-1 with Unibet. Wrote a long piece on my ante-post diary giving reasons.

In short Patrick and Mark Walsh rate him highly, did well over 2m but Willie talked him up as an AB horse and he was a commendable 5th. JP doesn't have a fancied runner that I can see heading for the NH Chase and I'm not sure Aione has the class.

 

[OverTheLast]

Anyone backed

King Roland ?

Looks bred for staying chasing and I think they thought he was the second coming before he got beat on trials day.

Not backed him myself, just wondered.

Huge fan, Quevega.

He travelled like the best in the horse in that race and having been injured for the rest of the season - maybe he got injured in the straight as was a very strange 'fold'.

 

[Outlaw]

Was weird how H.Fry quickly dismissed King Roland for March after not winning on trials day, I had hoped Harry Senior would run a decent race in the AB but so many of Tizzards went awol as we know. The more times you watch back trials day race the more times I wonder if Sean didn't quite pick up where Robbie went, still the finishing effort was tame. If In a hcap hurdle you'd like to think 140 wasn't his ceiling before novice chasing thou.

 

[nortonscoin200]

NC200,

Im just watching all of Easywork's videos again, and his RPR's in his first 4 hurdle races were only bettered (as a group of ratings) by Envoi Allen all season. Shishkin did better in his three runs too.

Easywork pulled a bit through the first part of the Ballymore, and was still able to pull away from The Big Getaway from the last.

I am thinking that Easywork and the Big Getaway have, at this point, at least as likely a chance in the RSA as the 3 Bartlett horses (and are 33/1 and 25/1 in the odd place c/w 10s to 16s for the Bartlett boys).

If we think that the best novice hurdlers should be among the favs for the three Novice Chases then Easywork should be close to fav for the RSA (W/O Envoi Allen).

Giggy's tend to buy staying chasing types, and I am would like to think that Easywork was a better novice hurdler than Delta Work, is from the same sire (Network), stable and owner as Delta Work and may be able to equal or better what DW did in the RSA.

Just watched Easywork's videos again too Saxon and agree he will take some beating in the RSA. He's a relentless galloper with a touch of class and strikes me it's a fair guess at this stage that the RSA will be his target and Envoy will aim for the Marsh.

He ran a cracking race in the Ballymore and certainly wasn't stopping at the line. As you point out, he looked much better at two-and-ahalf than over the minimum trip this season and seems much more likely to wind up in the Gold Cup than the Ryanair in a couple of years.

Feeling excited already to have him on board at 33s, all thanks to you. Love to see Davy on board next March.

 

[OscarWhisky]

No, but would definitely be interested.

He’s a horse that could’ve been really exciting last year, same this year.
You’d hope a fence might reduce his tendency to pull (and pull hard).
Wonder if the yard might consider the Arkle if he’s still keen and let him race prominently?

 

[JackieMoon33]

Anyone backed

King Roland ?

Looks bred for staying chasing and I think they thought he was the second coming before he got beat on trials day.

Not backed him myself, just wondered.

I wrote a piece (last) pre-season about King Roland being an AB fancy for me. He had a strange season that ended in injury on trials day. To be honest, after seeing the big trainers getting stronger in 2020 and the fact I think the staying division will be deep in class this season, he won’t make my shortlist again.