Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Lobos]

I can see the comparisons with getabird, but the big difference for me is that while Getabird finished well beaten Asterion Forlonge finished 4th and still ran a good race. Right now I think they'd have the Marsh as the target and I'm sure he'll be well schooled. I hope his first run over fences is left handed so we get a good look at how right he jumps.

.....or how wrong he jumps.......lol !

 

[Kevloaf]

I can see the comparisons with getabird, but the big difference for me is that while Getabird finished well beaten Asterion Forlonge finished 4th and still ran a good race. Right now I think they'd have the Marsh as the target and I'm sure he'll be well schooled. I hope his first run over fences is left handed so we get a good look at how right he jumps.

Yes that is a fair enough point, on the face of it 4th isn't that bad.

I'd probably downgrade it slightly as the two horses that didn't finish because of him may well have finished ahead of him, but even so, 6th wasn't as bad as Getabird.


He also won at Leopardstown didn't he, so going left-handed isn't as bad as it was for Getabird already.

 

[nortonscoin200]

Interested to find out if anyone has any thoughts about a couple of horses who ran unplaced in the AB and could go well at the Festival next year.

The first is Sempo who is priced up at 50-1 for the NH Chase.

Joseph O'B said in an interview for the Cheltenham festival's glossy magazine that Sempo was his best chance of a winner during the 4 days.

Remember being a bit surprised by that at the time but stable politics do play a role in what trainers say in public - with some owners not wanting their horses flagged up and others loving it.

Anyhow, Sempo ran a creditable 6th in the AB and he already had some useful form in the book before that.

He finished 4 lengths and 10l ahead of Allaho and Fury Road in a Leopardstown bumper in December 2018 and was just under 8l back in sixth behind Envoi Allen in the Cheltenham bumper last year. He was only 2l behind Abacadabras.

During his novice hurdling campaign he ran a good second to Cobbler's Way (beaten just under 2l off levels) in a 2m 4f maiden ast Leopardstown last December with The Big Getaway a further 2l back in 4th.

Sempo at 50-1 for the NH Chase next year looks pretty decent value when taking account of the risk he takes another path.

But I'm not quite excited enough to pull the trigger. Maybe he's one to watch on his return.

The other one who screamed class in the AB for a long way was Lieutenant Rocco - the only 5-year-old in the field - who travelled near the front like a very good horse - and then faded very tamely 2 out before being pulled up.

He's a strapping horse and if it's the case he doesn't stay 3 miles I reckon he could do some damage at a shorter trip over fences, possibly in a handicap.

LR is also 50-1 for the NH Chase but I wouldn't touch that with a barge-pole. I'd be much more interested if he went for the Arkle or the Grand Annual.

LR didn't show a great deal in 2 ptps over 3 miles (PU and 3rd beaten 8 lengths) but was a wide-margin winner of two novice hurdles on heavy ground over 2m 3f at Chepstow and Warwick.

Colin Tizzard had a pretty poor festival and LR was given a pretty tough task in the AB on only his 3rd start.

I really rated the quality of the AB this year but after repeated viewings I'm just starting to have slight doubts about the value of the form. Most of the field were within about 8 lengths of the leaders coming down the hill on the final circuit so does that imply the pace was no great shakes and the race ended up as a bit of a sprint.

The times suggest otherwise.

The AB was run more than 5 seconds quicker than the Stayers Hurdle the day before and even though the ground was definitely quicker on the Friday that's a pretty significant difference.

Anyone have any thoughts?

 

[Spectre]

I couldn't have either of the for the NH Chase as neither struck me as stayers last season. That said either or both could have been on the weak side and will be stronger for a summer at grass.

I'd say on what I've seen so far they'd both be better suited by the Marsh, but with Envoi Allen in waiting they may be tempted by staying/going up in trip. If so I wouldn't back either unless they showed me something different.

Tizzard may be tempted by handicap hurdles off Lieutenant Rocco's current mark. Of his staying hurdlers I'd prefer Harry Senior over staying trips over fences, who clearly didn't run his race at Cheltenham.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

I certainly haven’t given up on sempo but am not sure what his optimum trip is or whether he will be sent chasing or be a possible pertemps or coral cup horse. Definitely one to watch with interest next year.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

The first is Sempo who is priced up at 50-1 for the NH Chase.

Joseph O'B said in an interview for the Cheltenham festival's glossy magazine that Sempo was his best chance of a winner during the 4 days.

Remember being a bit surprised by that at the time but stable politics do play a role in what trainers say in public - with some owners not wanting their horses flagged up and others loving it.

Suprised he put Sempo up as his one ahead of Fakir Doudaries

 

[JackieMoon33]

After seeing the way he was campaigned, I was keen on Sempo for either the Coral or Martin Pipe and was disappointed when they went for the AB as I didn’t give him a chance in that.

Lieutenant Rocco and Aione were two of my early shortlist picks for the NH Chase. I think LR is much better than he showed and he’s a big brute that should improve when going chasing. As my Tizzard Fan Boi membership is still unrenewed I’m not sure I’ll be backing him though.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

After seeing the way he was campaigned, I was keen on Sempo for either the Coral or Martin Pipe and was disappointed when they went for the AB as I didn’t give him a chance in that.

Exactly the route I thought they would go Jackie, I backed him 'any race' so was a little despondent when he rocked up in the Bartlett.

Going forward, I suspect he'll be aimed at a handicap chase, possibly the Northern Trust, as he is only rated 141, get him pitched against something half useful, get beat and drop a little more etc... We know the drill.

If he doesn't take to chasing then he could come back for a crack at the Coral Cup next season, which again, I think will suit.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Aione as mentioned many time’s could well be Patrick’s ride in the NH Chase
There’s every chance one of the other horses prominent in the finish of the Albert Bartlett could easily go there rather than the RSA and if that’s the case Fury Road would look the one for me
I’ll be getting those two on side for the 4 miler in the hope one of them will end up as “that horse” who ends up going off as a short priced favourite

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Aione as mentioned many time’s could well be Patrick’s ride in the NH Chase
There’s every chance one of the other horses prominent in the finish of the Albert Bartlett could easily go there rather than the RSA and if that’s the case Fury Road would look the one for me
I’ll be getting those two on side for the 4 miler in the hope one of them will end up as “that horse” who ends up going off as a short priced favourite

IMO, no one should consider the Fury Road price in either the RSA or NH Chase markets without taking the 'any race' option first, which is boosted to above 15/1. Obviously the risk being no cash out, but unless you're really on the ball you could potentially miss the chance of that anyway. I don't see the value of taking a race specific price about Fury Road at the moment, when the difference is minimal.

I have taken some 33's (boosted) for the Marsh as the difference is of much greater significance. But I wouldn't put it past Elliott/Giggs to give him a chance down in trip first.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Aione as mentioned many time’s could well be Patrick’s ride in the NH Chase
There’s every chance one of the other horses prominent in the finish of the Albert Bartlett could easily go there rather than the RSA and if that’s the case Fury Road would look the one for me
I’ll be getting those two on side for the 4 miler in the hope one of them will end up as “that horse” who ends up going off as a short priced favourite

I'd say that any horse involved in the finish of the AB will want a rematch in the RSA if they take to fences. The front three all look like chasers and only jumping issues would make me think they'd end up in the consolation race.

 

[Lobos]

For me Fury Road , Monkfish and The Big Breakaway look tailor made for the NHC. Got them all TWAR so taking no chances. Of the 3 I'd say TBB would be the most likely in view of the trainers race history.

 

[Kevloaf]

For me Fury Road , Monkfish and The Big Breakaway look tailor made for the NHC. Got them all TWAR so taking no chances. Of the 3 I'd say TBB would be the most likely in view of the trainers race history.

History shows us Tizzard sends whatever he thinks is his best staying chaser to the RSA doesn't it?

Native River was an exception and they were publically annoyed by Derek O'Connor switching to Minella Rocco.

 

[Kautostar]

For me Fury Road , Monkfish and The Big Breakaway look tailor made for the NHC. Got them all TWAR so taking no chances. Of the 3 I'd say TBB would be the most likely in view of the trainers race history.

None of them fit the profile to me. I don’t think many of what are deemed to be the top novices will be aimed there. They tend to end up in the nh chase because they’re either not good enough to run in the rsa and are stable 2nd/3rd strings or second season chasers that failed/got injured the first time around.

 

[JackieMoon33]

None of them fit the profile to me. I don’t think many of what are deemed to be the top novices will be aimed there. They tend to end up in the nh chase because they’re either not good enough to run in the rsa and are stable 2nd/3rd strings or second season chasers that failed/got injured the first time around.

100% agree with that. The NH Chase is the consolation race for those not good enough for the RSA.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

None of them fit the profile to me. I don’t think many of what are deemed to be the top novices will be aimed there. They tend to end up in the nh chase because they’re either not good enough to run in the rsa and are stable 2nd/3rd strings or second season chasers that failed/got injured the first time around.

Yeh, agreed. Something would have to go wrong for any of those three to end up in the NH chase imo.

 

[Kevloaf]

Gigginstown having a better Staying chaser is a reason Fury Road could move... if the Ballymore form ends up loads better than the Albert Bartlett, Easywork could send FR that way..... but that certianly wouldn't be more likely at this stage.




When are they announcing which race is going? Still has to be a chance it's the NH Chase? :dejection:

 

[Kautostar]

I’m not saying fury road won’t end up in the nh chase but I highly doubt that’s the plan at this stage. Gigginstown have 5/6 that could end up here or the rsa and until we know the pecking order it’s too hard to call.

 

[Spectre]

If Commander Of Fleet is back, and they send Cracking Smart Chasing surely Fury Road will go RSA with Easywork. If not there has to be a strong possibility Easywork is the RSA horse with Fury Road going for the NH Chase.

If you have a Hills account Any Race is he way to go. Unfortunately I don't have that luxury.

 

[Kevloaf]

I’m not saying fury road won’t end up in the nh chase but I highly doubt that’s the plan at this stage. Gigginstown have 5/6 that could end up here or the rsa and until we know the pecking order it’s too hard to call.

True.

Gigginstown's plans and Elliott's plans for horses don't always match up either though from previous seasons...



Looking forward to seeing them out and racing :highly_amused: Be here before we know it.