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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

FaugheenTheMachine said:
Does anyone else get put off backing Nicholl’s horses at Cheltenham these days? He’s still the master at mopping up big races on a Saturday through the season but I just can’t really back his for the Festival anymore. Henderson, Mullins and Elliot stronghold
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100% FTM.

He's not silly, he'll not burn his horses out at one festival, when so much prize money available throughout the rest of the season.

That said, in some cases it is hard too ignore some of his horses, and the fact he is such a great trainer also.
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
Does anyone else get put off backing Nicholl’s horses at Cheltenham these days? He’s still the master at mopping up big races on a Saturday through the season but I just can’t really back his for the Festival anymore. Henderson, Mullins and Elliot stronghold
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His record has become poor, especially with novice hurdlers. One type I would still consider backing is staying chasers though as that is his focus. I considered this before putting Ask For Glory up earlier.
 
He maybe just didn’t have the quality to back up the amazing years he had with the likes of kauto, big bucks, denman, master minded.

Has had a relatively quiet few years at Cheltenham, but wouldn’t discount his at all. Looks to have built up some nice horses again TOTG, Pic D’Orhy and if they can have that superstar affect the 4 above had then may bring him back up to the big 3.
 
I wouldn't discount a horse because it's with Paul Nicholls as a blanket rule, because he's fantastic.

However, I definitely factor in that he doesn't tend to 'plot' a Cheltenham handicapper as he targets pots through the season. (Pic D'Orhy an example last season, amoungst plenty more)

I also agree with the above that touches on his novice hurdlers. He's obviously had some success with hurdlers during his career, and novice hurdlers too, however it's no secret chasing is the end game for pretty much any horse he has (as he buys them with that in mind) - so he'd need a horse well above average in my opinion to be winning festival novice hurdles.



So in short, yes I probably do get 'put off' in terms of ante post.
 
Did Nicholls even have a placed horse this year ? Can't remember.
 
Lobos said:
Did Nicholls even have a placed horse this year ? Can't remember.
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I don't think he even had a runner on day 1 :concern:
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Not having a runner in the Supreme, Arkle or Champion Hurdle is certainly not a good show.
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Absolutely. In fact, in all the novice races at the festival (hurdles and chases) he only had 3 runners; cat tiger who was pulled up, Saint sonnet who was a well-beaten 7th in the Marsh and Mick Pastor who was 10th in the Fred Winter. This suggests that he may be having a few more pints in his local come the middle of march next year!

He is an amazing trainer though and one who can target a horse as well as any he just isn't getting the ammo at the moment.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
And the 2nd! Dynamite Dollars.

Greanateen was his nearest after that, finishing 4th in the Grand Annual.
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Oh yeah, stupid me. Backed Politolouge, DD and Granateen !
 
I regularly bet Paul Nicholls to have 3 or more winners at the Festival but the best he’s done for a while was 2 winners in 2019 in recent years. I also backed 8 of his horses in singles at this years Festival and had a decent return on Politilogue and Dynamite Dollars. It’s strange how he has struggled, especially in the handicap chases because he has a massive stable and continues to have a lot of money invested in his stable by big spending owners buying and sending him some potentially classily French bred recruits. I think I read 2 years ago in an interview that Nicholls was very excited about his crop of juvenile chasers and the best he’s had since Kauto Star & Denman so maybe next season may see a change in achievement and fortune at the festival. Given the huge amount of prize money he amasses each season consistently I don’t think he’s too bothered about his Cheltenham record of late though, it may play on his mind very briefly when waiting for his next cocktail to arrive when sunbathing in Barbados but I doubt for long.
 
Shiskin in the Arkle along with Eptante in the Churdle (plus the double) were the first bets I placed on the Monday after Cheltenham. Henderson's comments re Shiskin were identical to those he made about Altior after his Supreme win. That is high praise indeed but clearly shows how much they rate him. 4/1 may appear short now but come March those numbers could easily be reversed.
 
Asterian Forlonge was on my shortlist for one of these races next year but having rewatched the Supreme again last night I didn't fully appreciate how far right he jumps the last 3 hurdles. The third last is a disaster and the last he would have gone much further right if he didnt have chantry house to 'straighten him up'. Has to be a concern for me over hurdles and cant be backing him AP until I see him jump a fence 'straighter'.
 
Hardy Eustace said:
Asterian Forlonge was on my shortlist for one of these races next year but having rewatched the Supreme again last night I didn't fully appreciate how far right he jumps the last 3 hurdles. The third last is a disaster and the last he would have gone much further right if he didnt have chantry house to 'straighten him up'. Has to be a concern for me over hurdles and cant be backing him AP until I see him jump a fence 'straighter'.
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I doubt he'll run at the Fez again. Amazed he didn't hurt himself and that no one else was seriously injured. They won't chance him again surely? Stick to right handed from now I'd say.
 
Hardy Eustace said:
Asterian Forlonge was on my shortlist for one of these races next year but having rewatched the Supreme again last night I didn't fully appreciate how far right he jumps the last 3 hurdles. The third last is a disaster and the last he would have gone much further right if he didnt have chantry house to 'straighten him up'. Has to be a concern for me over hurdles and cant be backing him AP until I see him jump a fence 'straighter'.
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I think he'll be Marsh bound (can't see them taking Shishkin on again as same owner, worth a crack at Envoi), but as you've rightly noted, his exaggerated jumping to the right is a big concern. That will need to be sorted out for sure. I may be wrong but I don't remember as bad as he was at the festival, during his PTP (available to part watch on YouTube - Asterion Forlonge PTP).

Maybe fences will have a positive effect on him, as he'll have to think more about jumping them rather than being untidy over smaller obstacles.

If things don't work out over fences (no reason why they wouldn't), then maybe the Champion Hurdle could be an option, again, the right issue would need to improve massively to have any sort of chance.
 
I’m with lobos I can’t see them bringing him over again. Just doesn’t handle Cheltenham and needs to go right handed
 
Getabird is perhaps an example we can look towards?


I feel like I felt that was a bit of an exception though, I wouldn't rule out Asterion Forlonge running at Cheltenham again, however I definitely wouldn't back him without NRNB/cashout.
 
Kevloaf said:
Getabird is perhaps an example we can look towards?


I feel like I felt that was a bit of an exception though, I wouldn't rule out Asterion Forlonge running at Cheltenham again, however I definitely wouldn't back him without NRNB/cashout.
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I can see the comparisons with getabird, but the big difference for me is that while Getabird finished well beaten Asterion Forlonge finished 4th and still ran a good race. Right now I think they'd have the Marsh as the target and I'm sure he'll be well schooled. I hope his first run over fences is left handed so we get a good look at how right he jumps.
 
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