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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

Kevloaf

Kevloaf

Apparently came 3rd overall in the Fantasy Premier
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Let's have some discussion about the novice chase divison next season...

Individual race threads will be created as we start the next National Hunt season.
 
....Monkfish is now a best priced 10-1 for the RSA, but also plenty short enough with firms for the NHC, Marsh and even the Stayers Hurdle.

The RSA is the obvious target, but I think the Hills 8-1 any race (without boost) is reasonable while it lasts.
 
Eggs said:
....Monkfish is now a best priced 10-1 for the RSA, but also plenty short enough with firms for the NHC, Marsh and even the Stayers Hurdle.

The RSA is the obvious target, but I think the Hills 8-1 any race (without boost) is reasonable while it lasts.
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I know jono is really keen on him too at this stage.
 
I know a lot of people already fancy Monkfish but surely Fury Road and Latest Exhibition should also be considered at bigger prices based on the Albert Bartlett running? Monkfish is not the only horse that is going to improve for seeing a fence and being a year older. I'm personally taking the view that the Ballymore form is better that the AB so have already had an interest on The Big Getaway and The Big Breakaway(and hoping EA goes for the Marsh).
 
Kevloaf said:
I know jono is really keen on him too at this stage.
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...to be honest, it’s not one I’d be getting stuck into. I’m just highlighting a price that some might be interested in. 8.6-1 for any race seems decent when its a best priced 10-1 RSA and prominent in quite a few other markets.

I popped Monkfish into a couple of small stake doubles @ 10-1 any race and 12-1 RSA, that’s my strategy for any around that price or shorter.
 
YoungHustler said:
I know a lot of people already fancy Monkfish but surely Fury Road and Latest Exhibition should also be considered at bigger prices based on the Albert Bartlett running? Monkfish is not the only horse that is going to improve for seeing a fence and being a year older. I'm personally taking the view that the Ballymore form is better that the AB so have already had an interest on The Big Getaway and The Big Breakaway(and hoping EA goes for the Marsh).
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When considering the Ballymore form for the RSA I think easywork should be thrown in there as well. It was a good run on his part beating the getaway and staying strongly up the hill. Nothing to suggest going up in trip wouldn’t suit, he doesn’t look the biggest so I guess the presumption is him not improving for a fence as much as the others. He’s stand out 33/1 with 365 Cash out, and 22/1 everywhere else. The worry would be all the other giggins town horse’s and splitting the pack, but i think it’s a fair price with the cash out.
 
Agree with all about Monkfish/LE/Fury Road and think this years potato race will throw up plenty of winners (and not just with them 3).

Looking at the arkle/marsh Johnny De la Hey could be in an interesting position with Pic D'ohry but also potentially Solo - does anyone know if he will be sent chasing next year? He bombed out at Cheltenham but I would be prepared to forgive him for that at the current prices (40s arkle / 25's TWAR) based on his kempton run. He is a 'full horse' so imagine he would need to be gelded for fences?! poor chap.

Felix Desjy is another I think will make a smashing chaser I could see him set the pace and try and 'catch me if you can' in next years arkle. But same comments apply with the army of gigginstown horses. Though I do think he is definitely a two miler.
 
Arkle - Cedarwood Road

Marsh - The Big Getaway

RSA - Monkfish/Latest Exhibition

At this stage these are easier than the novice hurdles.

There won't be a horse in training that looks more the part as a budding chaser than Cedarwood Road. He needs to find 7-10lbs but that's entirely possible. He will stay further but owner has the Klairon Davis connection so it will be a surprise if he doesn't begin over the minimum.

If I had the chance I would probably take back The Big Getaway bet. I think the Marsh is the right race (he didn't see out even a slowly run Ballymore) but I do wonder if he might be more about physique rather than ability.

Monkfish and Latest Exhibition are pretty obvious. It would be a surprise if they didn't set the standard. Latest Exhibition would be the one most likely to cope with starting over a shorter trip.
 
Hardy Eustace said:
Agree with all about Monkfish/LE/Fury Road and think this years potato race will throw up plenty of winners (and not just with them 3).

Looking at the arkle/marsh Johnny De la Hey could be in an interesting position with Pic D'ohry but also potentially Solo - does anyone know if he will be sent chasing next year? He bombed out at Cheltenham but I would be prepared to forgive him for that at the current prices (40s arkle / 25's TWAR) based on his kempton run. He is a 'full horse' so imagine he would need to be gelded for fences?! poor chap.

Felix Desjy is another I think will make a smashing chaser I could see him set the pace and try and 'catch me if you can' in next years arkle. But same comments apply with the army of gigginstown horses. Though I do think he is definitely a two miler.
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Solo with stick to hurdles as a 5 year old I’d expect, with the season target the Betfair Hurdle just like Pic.
 
Hardy Eustace said:
Felix Desjy is another I think will make a smashing chaser I could see him set the pace and try and 'catch me if you can' in next years arkle. But same comments apply with the army of gigginstown horses. Though I do think he is definitely a two miler.
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Agree on Felix Desjy think there's a few who missed this season that could go under the radar novice chasing. He's definitely one and another I've mentioned before is Dickie Diver, looks a big horse who could have filled out plenty last season and looks made for the RSA or NH Chase. Bright Forecast is another people have mentioned before, and another who I'll be keeping an eye out for is Next Destination he's missed 2 seasons now so plenty of risks but if he gets declared for any novice chases I'll risk him.
 
Priceiskey said:
Solo with stick to hurdles as a 5 year old I’d expect, with the season target the Betfair Hurdle just like Pic.
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Yep, that would make sense. From the limited amount I have seen of him I do think he'll make a good chaser one day. I am also looking forward to fiddlerontheroof going chasing but he could be more for the graded races throughout the season rather than the festival purely because of how Tizzard over campaigns his horses IMO. Could be one for the Henry VIII then Scilly iscles double - now there's a sky request a bet!! :D
 
Hardy Eustace said:
Agree with all about Monkfish/LE/Fury Road and think this years potato race will throw up plenty of winners (and not just with them 3).

Looking at the arkle/marsh Johnny De la Hey could be in an interesting position with Pic D'ohry but also potentially Solo - does anyone know if he will be sent chasing next year? He bombed out at Cheltenham but I would be prepared to forgive him for that at the current prices (40s arkle / 25's TWAR) based on his kempton run. He is a 'full horse' so imagine he would need to be gelded for fences?! poor chap.

Felix Desjy is another I think will make a smashing chaser I could see him set the pace and try and 'catch me if you can' in next years arkle. But same comments apply with the army of gigginstown horses. Though I do think he is definitely a two miler.
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"Solo has been gelded – he's a lovely horse for the future. It's not easy as a four-year-old so I'd be surprised if we go chasing. He might be a bit like Pic D'Orhy – there's some good hurdles races for him."

- Paul Nicholls RP 11/04/2020
 
JackieMoon33 said:
"Solo has been gelded – he's a lovely horse for the future. It's not easy as a four-year-old so I'd be surprised if we go chasing. He might be a bit like Pic D'Orhy – there's some good hurdles races for him."

- Paul Nicholls RP 11/04/2020
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Awesome. Thanks JM.
 
Hardy Eustace said:
Yep, that would make sense. From the limited amount I have seen of him I do think he'll make a good chaser one day. I am also looking forward to fiddlerontheroof going chasing but he could be more for the graded races throughout the season rather than the festival purely because of how Tizzard over campaigns his horses IMO. Could be one for the Henry VIII then Scilly iscles double - now there's a sky request a bet!! :D
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Is that a Definite H.E , Fiddlerontheroof going chasing ?? .
any quotes you've seen . , I definitely think he's better than .
what he showed in the Supreme.
 
BigChaang said:
Is that a Definite H.E , Fiddlerontheroof going chasing ?? .
any quotes you've seen . , I definitely think he's better than .
what he showed in the Supreme.
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After he won the Tolworth Tizzard said he’ll go over fences next year. I don’t imagine his run in the supreme will have changed anything.

“A lot will depend on the ground,” Tizzard said. “I’m sure he’ll have an entry in the [two-mile] Supreme and the two-and-a-half [Ballymore Novice Hurdle]. We’ve also got Master Debonair for the Supreme as well [as recent Newbury winner The Big Breakaway] so we’re spoilt for choice and that’s beautiful for our yard going forward, the novice hurdlers are our future.
“They’re three very good horses and I can’t wait to jump a fence with him [Fiddlerontheroof] next year. We had Elixir [De Nutz] who won this race last year and he never made it to Cheltenham, so it’s a case of getting them all there and then it’s a lovely problem to have.”


https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...olworth-hurdle-grade-one-sandown-horse-racing
 
It's tough to know where Tizzard would end up placing a novice chaser. You couldn't rule out the Marsh, Arkle or RSA for Fiddlerontheroof given connections. I'd have them in the order I've listed them.

33/1 Marsh and 40/1 Arkle both fair enough with 365 - I'd anticipate him being shorter for both after chase debut.

Not adding myself now as it's still April but if these prices held until Sept I'd do it.
 
Kevloaf said:
It's tough to know where Tizzard would end up placing a novice chaser. You couldn't rule out the Marsh, Arkle or RSA for Fiddlerontheroof given connections. I'd have them in the order I've listed them.

33/1 Marsh and 40/1 Arkle both fair enough with 365 - I'd anticipate him being shorter for both after chase debut.

Not adding myself now as it's still April but if these prices held until Sept I'd do it.
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....only 20-1 (before boost) in the Hills any race market.
 
I like fiddlerontheroof as an arkle horse think he showed a lovely turn of foot in the tolworth and he is definetly better then what he showed at cheltenham
 
Ray said:
I like fiddlerontheroof as an arkle horse think he showed a lovely turn of foot in the tolworth and he is definetly better then what he showed at cheltenham
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Not sure that Tolworth win was as good as it looked though Ray?

The 2nd was walloped next time out 104L
The 3rd was PU at the festival
Hang In There was beaten when falling next time out behind Shishkin.
The Nicholls horse won a couple of weak races at odds on but didn't make the team for Cheltenham?



Could be a case of another over hyped Tizzard horse?


I did like the Tolworth myself at the time... with the limited evidence we've got though he might just be flattered by it?
 
His losing form is probably better, not unlike Abacadabras. Always worth considering each way but these decent 'professional losers' aren't win only material.
 
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