Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Saxon Warrior]

Compelling case Saxon - I'm on.

NC200,

Im just watching all of Easywork's videos again, and his RPR's in his first 4 hurdle races were only bettered (as a group of ratings) by Envoi Allen all season. Shishkin did better in his three runs too.

Easywork pulled a bit through the first part of the Ballymore, and was still able to pull away from The Big Getaway from the last.

I am thinking that Easywork and the Big Getaway have, at this point, at least as likely a chance in the RSA as the 3 Bartlett horses (and are 33/1 and 25/1 in the odd place c/w 10s to 16s for the Bartlett boys).

If we think that the best novice hurdlers should be among the favs for the three Novice Chases then Easywork should be close to fav for the RSA (W/O Envoi Allen).

Giggy's tend to buy staying chasing types, and I am would like to think that Easywork was a better novice hurdler than Delta Work, is from the same sire (Network), stable and owner as Delta Work and may be able to equal or better what DW did in the RSA.

 

[archie]

Has to be said that the DRF run was on Day 2 and it was neither lightning fast ground nor a particularly fast race.

That aside, it's sound enough logic and a decent price.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Has to be said that the DRF run was on Day 2 and it was neither lightning fast ground nor a particularly fast race.

That aside, it's sound enough logic and a decent price.

:highly_amused:Quite right Archie, I was fooled by the FAKE reported "Yielding " ground for Day 2. (amended my post accordingly) :encouragement:

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Didnt take long for my post on the chance of Easywork in the RSA to lead to a price move from 33/1 to 25/1.

Well done to all that got the price.

I still think that 25/1 represents very good value compared to the others in the market.:encouragement:

 

[Kevloaf]

Didnt take long for my post on the chance of Easywork in the RSA to lead to a price move from 33/1 to 25/1.

Well done to all that got the price.

I still think that 25/1 represents very good value compared to the others in the market.:encouragement:

:dejection:

The problem with this pattern is that it's going to discourage people from posting there 'tips' if the price disappears within an hour.




Just picking up from your reply in the related doubles thread:

I just watched back all of Easywork's 5 runs last season. he debuted in the Down Royal Bumper that Gordy farms on the first big weekend racing in Ireland (won 6 out of last 7) and won by further than Malone Road did the year before, and with a better rating.

He was prominent or led in all four of his hurdle runs, and travelled well in the jockeys hands in all four races, pulling a bit in the Ballymore, but not too much that he couldnt see out the race well, up the hill.

I was very impressed watching back the Ballymore and think it's interesting he's generally shorter for the Marsh still. It also made me wonder why the horse one of the horses that beat him, Asterion Forlonge wasn't quoted but he is now, at 33/1. Same ownership as The Big Getaway and Shishkin but interesting to see how they all progress/take to fences.

 

[taylorch1990]

I'll definitely be keeping an eye out for Asterion Forlonge on his fences debut. If he doesn't show the same tenancy to jump right like he did at his hurdles then he's too big a price. Might have a bit of the 25s with 365 and if he does jump right cash out.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

And me. Looks the type to improve for fences. Trouble is I have no idea which race he’ll go for. Usually in this instance I’d just go TWAR but with EA in the marsh and Shiskin in the Arkle I will definitely hang fire until I can watch him over fences then at least I can make an educated guess as to where he may go.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

:dejection:

The problem with this pattern is that it's going to discourage people from posting there 'tips' if the price disappears within an hour.

Agreed Kev, I am posting my own thoughts or selections later and less of them, as a rule, at the moment, as this forum does move markets, when a post gives a good reason to back a horse at a standout price.

Its also the reason I haven't put up my 2021 Diary thread at this point.

I think we move a market where there is one firm with the best price, not a group of them.

Bob Olinger was another recent one.

I still think Easywork at 25/1 with a number of bookmakers (rather than just one firm quoting 33/1) is the best price in the RSA market, though, and with more firms at that price then it shouldnt shift quickly.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Agreed Kev, I am posting my own thoughts or selections later and less as a rule, at the moment, as this forum does move markets, when a post gives a good reason to back a horse at a standout price.

Its also the reason I havent put up my 2021 Diary thread at this point.

I think we move a market where there is one firm with the best price, not a group of them.

Bob Olinger was another recent one.

I still think Easywork at 25/1 with a number of bookmakers (rather than just one firm quoting 33/1) is the best price in the RSA market, though, and with more firms at that price then it shouldnt shift quickly.

It's frustrating when it happens. There is still plenty of traffic on this page, even though we are out of the NH season, so I'd advise getting your stake on before putting up a bet.

Hope you got a decent chunk on Easywork SW.

 

[YoungHustler]

Didnt take long for my post on the chance of Easywork in the RSA to lead to a price move from 33/1 to 25/1.

Well done to all that got the price.

I still think that 25/1 represents very good value compared to the others in the market.:encouragement:

Thanks SW for your thoughts on Easywork. I really find your views and reasoning very informative. I was holding off on Easywork as was unsure whether he would be aimed at the RSA or Ballymore. I think I will take the any race price of 16s before that goes!! The reason I'm unsure of the target for Easywork is that Gigginstown potentially already have Fury Road, the 2 CoFs for the RSA and might they have swerved the Ballymore this year if they knew really did not want to face EA? Also, I know he's by the same sire as Delta Work but DW must have already shown Gordon that he was a stayer in his novice hurdle season as he was mainly campaigned over 3m whereas Easywork has been over 2/2.5 miles. In anycase, I'm happy to take any race for now.
Regarding the RSA itself, I know some people think the Albert Bartlett was a better race than the Ballymore, but not in my opinion. I've now backed the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Ballymore and will take them above the top 4 from the AB for the RSA until proven otherwise. I'm hoping my judgement is right as I don't want to back anymore for the RSA as also have Bright Forecast and Commander Of Fleet(tiny stakes but at 100/1 on Betfair)too!!

 

[YoungHustler]

Agreed Kev, I am posting my own thoughts or selections later and less of them, as a rule, at the moment, as this forum does move markets, when a post gives a good reason to back a horse at a standout price.

Its also the reason I haven't put up my 2021 Diary thread at this point.

I think we move a market where there is one firm with the best price, not a group of them.

Bob Olinger was another recent one.

I still think Easywork at 25/1 with a number of bookmakers (rather than just one firm quoting 33/1) is the best price in the RSA market, though, and with more firms at that price then it shouldnt shift quickly.

I was going to ask if you could put your Diary up SW!!:highly_amused: But no worries!

 

[Hardy Eustace]

I would absolutely love fury road in the NHC. Think he’s made for it. So if easywork goes RSA that’ll do me nicely.

 

[Kautostar]

Easywork could literally go anywhere he’s what the any race market was invented for. My opinion is he’s very small and could end up a live one for the stayers hurdle

 

[Kevloaf]

Agreed Kev, I am posting my own thoughts or selections later and less of them, as a rule, at the moment, as this forum does move markets, when a post gives a good reason to back a horse at a standout price.

Its also the reason I haven't put up my 2021 Diary thread at this point.

I think we move a market where there is one firm with the best price, not a group of them.

Bob Olinger was another recent one.

I still think Easywork at 25/1 with a number of bookmakers (rather than just one firm quoting 33/1) is the best price in the RSA market, though, and with more firms at that price then it shouldnt shift quickly.

It's frustrating when it happens. There is still plenty of traffic on this page, even though we are out of the NH season, so I'd advise getting your stake on before putting up a bet.

Hope you got a decent chunk on Easywork SW.

It is actually possible to block everybody from seeing the ante post diaries, and lift restrictions on it for specific users.

Making it members only is a start, stops lurkers and our sign up policy is a little more robust now than before. Wouldn't stop a bookie from being a member and relaying the information but that could be happening now anyway...

 

[Saxon Warrior]

It's frustrating when it happens. There is still plenty of traffic on this page, even though we are out of the NH season, so I'd advise getting your stake on before putting up a bet.

Hope you got a decent chunk on Easywork SW.

Two chunks, one 5 weeks ago, one today. :encouragement:

 

[Saxon Warrior]

It is actually possible to block everybody from seeing the ante post diaries, and lift restrictions on it for specific users.

Making it members only is a start, stops lurkers and our sign up policy is a little more robust now than before. Wouldn't stop a bookie from being a member and relaying the information but that could be happening now anyway...

Good starting point Kev.
It makes me more likely to start a 2021 Diary.
I would be even more keen if it moved to specific users/those with an active diary.
But that may increase your admin tasks. :concern:

 

[Kevloaf]

Good starting point Kev.
It makes me more likely to start a 2021 Diary.
I would be even more keen if it moved to specific users/those with an active diary.
But that may increase your admin tasks. :concern:

Let me think about alternatives.

The admin involved in managing that is too big at the moment but got a couple of ideas.

 

[The King Pimm]

Easywork really surprised me in the Ballymore. I know a few of him held him in high regard beforehand but I had written him off. To stay on like he did shows he has all the attributes to be a winner at a future festival. The TWAR is a sensible starting position with him. Would he be too highly rated for one of the hurdle handicaps next festival??

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Easywork really surprised me in the Ballymore. I know a few of him held him in high regard beforehand but I had written him off. To stay on like he did shows he has all the attributes to be a winner at a future festival. The TWAR is a sensible starting position with him. Would he be too highly rated for one of the hurdle handicaps next festival??

Listed at 153 handicap mark on Racing Post over hurdles. That puts him out of contention for Festival Handicap Chases, and close to the top of the weights for the Coral Cup/Pertemps. I dont imagine he will stay hurdling, but stranger things.....

TWAR would be good if 14s or 16s.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Which of the Albert Bartlett horses could we see going for the 4 miler next year? Always handy to find the short priced one Patrick will ride for example