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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

archie said:
The Allaho comparison isn't valid even though it's the same owners.

Allaho was campaigned over hurdles at 2m5f or further whereas Envoi Allen was basically campaigned mostly at 2m by a different trainer. I'd say there's basically only a tiny chance that EA goes RSA and that 9/2 for the Marsh is much more solid than 4/1 Shishkin in the Arkle although I'm not remotely tempted by either as a single price.
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No denying any of that’s Archie but the owners want a Gold Cup winner and there is no denying the RSA is the best trial. I absolutely want him in the Marsh and glad to see the positivity about that target
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
I’m with you on everything except the target for EA. I’m heavily involved in Shishkin for the Arkle and pretty involved with EA for the Marsh. The fact is Hendo has name checked the Arkle and we just don’t have that with EA’s target. Also do the Alloha developments from this year not cast some doubt? As somebody who is getting stuck into the 3 AB horses for the RSA Envoi Allen rocking up there would be a kick in the balls I need to avoid somehow
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Nah, the Allaho comparison does nothing for me.

He'd had a run in the Albert Bartlett (2nd)
Envoi Allen ran and won the Ballymore.


The way I see it, Elliott holds the cards.


EA is the best hurdler going novice chasing. They've already put him at the trip this season which for me rules out the Arkle. (Not that I don't think he could win it, but they'll be aware the Supreme winner is going there, and why would they want the clash).

The RSA already looks competitive based on the AB and Elliott will have other horses.




I can't really explain why I'm so confident properly, but I am just not worried at all about the target, like I wasn't this season. If I'm wrong I'll take it on the chin and everybody is in charge of their own bets.... but I'm very close to being full steam ahead on the target, I just can't see any logic behind the other options.
 
Nortons who said:
Kev this news re Shishkin is hardly new news, Hendo and Nico both said straight after Cheltenham that they couldn't wait to see Shishkin over fences and that he would most likely stay at 2 miles with Chantry House stepping up in trip.

However, if you think that Envoi Allen has 'loads more chance of winning the Marsh Chase than Shishkin has of winning the Arkle' why would you be risking doubles with Shishkin. Instead, if you don't rate Goshen but reckon that Epatante already has form in the book to win the CH again then her performance would only be 2 races after Shiskin, so would you not have more confidence of kicking of a range of follow on rest of week Doubles with her than Shishkin ?
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That's why I put it in italics :p It's not 'news' to me:p



...and I haven't said I don't rate Goshen once?! I've just said he's not a good value bet relative to Epatante. I also clearly stated neither are a price I'd back now.


Shishkin is potentially going to go off a short priced fav (odds on?) for the Arkle. Epatante won't go off odds on in a Champion Hurdle unless a load of horses get injured.


It's also to do with the unknowns. Shishkin has less opposition to deal with, as novice chasers are a very small group and I can already gauge where they were in the pecking order.

Epatante has juveniles, novices and returning horses to contend with, Shishkin doesn't. He just has to prove he can jump well.





Envoi Allen is superior, there isn't LOADS between Shishkin and Epatante, but I'd say Shishkin is more likely to have an easier race... whether any of value now is debatable for sure, but I am not saying what you are making out I've said.

I do think Envoi Allen has loads more chance of winning the Marsh than any horse has of winning any race bar Easysland in the Cross Country perhaps.



I'm not going to be 1000 pts on that double now though either :p
 
Last season the money came at the start of the season for the Ballymore which with that stable does appear to be very relevant. All the early money has come for him in the Marsh but with the way prices have been cut absurdly early it is difficult to tell if that is informed money
 
We don’t know how strong each race will be as yet the rsa could look extremely weak come next year if the Albert Bartlett brigade turns out to be a poor renewal. Elliott has other horses for both the marsh and rsa so I wouldn’t rule anything out yet. I’d lean 70/30 in favour of the marsh at this stage
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
I agree the intermediate trip would seem perfect but if they are obsessed with him winning a Gold Cup we all know the RSA tends to be the best trial. Here’s how I would price it up:

Marsh 4/7
RSA 2/1
Arkle 10/1
GC 40/1
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If you are interested you can still get EA at 50-1 for the GC with Betfair Sportsbook. I took 2pts at these odds ages ago, just in case he proves to be so special that they decide to go for the big one in his Novice season. Coneygree did it and who's to say that EA isn't as good.
 
Kautostar said:
We don’t know how strong each race will be as yet the rsa could look extremely weak come next year if the Albert Bartlett brigade turns out to be a poor renewal. Elliott has other horses for both the marsh and rsa so I wouldn’t rule anything out yet. I’d lean 70/30 in favour of the marsh at this stage
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The combination required for Elliott to have a better chance of winning 2 races at the festival with EA in the RSA is much bigger than 70/30 based on their novice hurdle careers.



What possible horses will he have as the front 3 in the betting for the Marsh?
versus
What possible horses will he have as the front 3 in the betting for the RSA?


If EA is the best of them, they'll fit in around him, not the other way around.



It's just not logical to switch EA with Fury Road, or CoF? Or Easywork? Or whoever you can come up with?
 
Nortons who said:
If you are interested you can still get EA at 50-1 for the GC with Betfair Sportsbook. I took 2pts at these odds ages ago, just in case he proves to be so special that they decide to go for the big one in his Novice season. Coneygree did it and who's to say that EA isn't as good.
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Nobody but there is a massive difference between Elliott and Bradstock and Chevely Park and The Max Partnership.


Coneygree going for the Gold Cup was because it was once in a lifetime for connections, and the age and fragility of the horse.


Envoi Allen is a dual festival winner already, I just cannot see them gambling like that with him. They have other horses they could aim at a Gold Cup too (owner and trainer!)...

I am not sure I'd back 50/1 for Envoi Allen to run in the Gold Cup. Maybe 0.1 pt for FOMO :p
 
Nortons who said:
If you are interested you can still get EA at 50-1 for the GC with Betfair Sportsbook. I took 2pts at these odds ages ago, just in case he proves to be so special that they decide to go for the big one in his Novice season. Coneygree did it and who's to say that EA isn't as good.
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I’m offering 40/1 he turns up there :)
 
My point was more if the marsh is looking hot if say chantry house, Klassical dream etc look decent and the rsa looks very weak it could look the easier option to go down the rsa route for a penalty kick.

Easywork, Andy dufresne, column of fire could go to the marsh and envoi rsa if cof/fury road flops or gets injured.

Just playing devils advocate here as I think envoi will go the marsh
 
Kautostar said:
My point was more if the marsh is looking hot if say chantry house, Klassical dream etc look decent and the rsa looks very weak it could look the easier option to go down the rsa route for a penalty kick.

Easywork, Andy dufresne, column of fire could go to the marsh and envoi rsa if cof/fury road flops or gets injured.

Just playing devils advocate here as I think envoi will go the marsh
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That doesn't stack up though still.

Would it be a 'hot renewal' if Envoi Allen has to face Chantry House? Any of the novices from last season? I would back him to beat any of them over any distance, so he's EA that'll pick his easiest conditions and he's already proven at this (Marsh) trip.

More generally, where and why would they try EA over 3m before the festival? Surely the Flogas over 2m6f is the furthest he'd go? I cannot envisage the first time he goes 3m being the RSA no matter what's happened there either.


Klassical Dream is the only horse (and we don't even know he's going Novice Chasing) that Envoi Allen hasn't proven he's superior too, although I'd fancy Klassical Dream wouldn't have won this years novice hurdle renewals had he been in that crop.




For me, Easywork or Andy Dufresne going for the Marsh would mean something had gone wrong with EA, either injured or they literally usurped him as better novice chasers.... if that's the case the bet'd be donw anyway!
 
You are making a good case Kev and I might have to update my prices as can see that 4/7 Marsh getting hammered. All jokes aside is a useful conversation as is helping me decide how many free bets to keep piling into him over the summer months
 
Gigginstown won't be telling Gordon to avoid EA at all costs though so Elliott could send a few to the Marsh, a few to the RSA and on and on. Envoi Allen has little relevance to other stablemates with different owners, IMO. A lot of novice hurdlers that are likely to go chasing to sort out for him.

I actually wouldn't be put off Fury Road going to the Marsh myself. Not priced up though.
 
Definitely in the Marsh EA camp, just think he shows plenty speed and the trip will suit him perfectly as the ballymore did imo.

I’m not saying he doesn’t stay 3m, I have no doubt he will in the future.

Easywork could quite easily be giggs Arkle horse, but it’s all guesswork at this stage.

Fury Road is RSA or NHC surely though? He’s a proper stayer, certainly looks it to me. Don’t think he would have any chance in the Marsh imo.
 
Mentioned this before and I know it wont be the popular view but did anyone else feel like Envoi Allen might of be coming towards the end of his stamina in the Ballymore? he had to be dragged in front of the crowd. Might be nothing but at such short prices whenever he runs ill be considering taking him on if he tries 3 miles in decent company.
 
He might have been Billy.

They went at a proper pace in the Ballymore and he still put in a impressive turn of foot 3f out so the petrol gauge might have been emptying slightly. It would have been surprising if he wasn't tiring.

He settles so well that I don't think the step up in trip will cause him any issues. It could be a while before they test him at 3 miles, might even be December 2021.
 
Not for me Billy.
He is a rogue and just gets lazy at times, I’m convinced when he goes past horses he thinks his job is done and half pulls up, you don’t produce that turn of foot and empty 200 yards later, plenty in the tank for me....
 
Great idea to combine this trade early season....and could be an exciting season with lot of horses i like....though many not sure where they will go

Thoughts so far...

Arkle
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Got to like Shiskin, but not interested at the price and i think their are several other ones at decent prices that are worth getting in the book with potential to be decent

So far have got....Elixir D'ainay at 50s, Pic D'orhy at 28s (biggest bet), Captain Guiness at 22s and Energumene at 45s

I find the Ankle hard A/post.....and have had last couple of years winners later on in NRNB market....but i only bet for fun, so the book building begins (and i like a big book!)

Marsh
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Only bet is Chantry House at 20s (and with cashout)

I think this tends to be a terrible race A/post....i got lucky last year with some doubles on Samcro, who became one of my biggest ever winners at festival.....but even then better prices were available later

If Envoi goes here, hard to see him beaten and for once, prob won't be building much of a book on this race....least for a while

RSA
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This is becoming one of my fav races to watch and think we are seeing some great talent emerge from the race....don't forget Al Boum came from this race too

The Albert Bartlett form again looks strong and so have several in the book......Monkfish at 12s (not great price, but prob won't lengthen if he is any good), Latest Exhibition at 18s, Fury Road at 18s,

Also added the 2 BIGs....Getaway at 28s and Breakaway at 37s......prefer Getaway, but Tizzard good at chasers and maybe was out of form so worth small interest

Prob too many at this stage.....but top of market has been pretty consistent in this race last couple of years and my approach is always to have a big book (more fun and had paid well enough last 2 years since started A/post)


Probably obvious - but at this stage Shiskin, Envoi, Monkfish looks the trio.....tho think Pic D'orhy could be one to watch too
 
TigerRolllllll said:
Great idea to combine this trade early season....and could be an exciting season with lot of horses i like....though many not sure where they will go


RSA
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The Albert Bartlett form again looks strong and so have several in the book......Monkfish at 12s (not great price, but prob won't lengthen if he is any good), Latest Exhibition at 18s, Fury Road at 18s,

Also added the 2 BIGs....Getaway at 28s and Breakaway at 37s......prefer Getaway, but Tizzard good at chasers and maybe was out of form so worth small interest

Prob too many at this stage.....but top of market has been pretty consistent in this race last couple of years and my approach is always to have a big book (more fun and had paid well enough last 2 years since started A/post)
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Tiger,
I would be more keen on EASYWORK for the RSA Chase than anything at the front of the market.

After a hurdles debut win over 2M from Mount Leinster (RPR 143 on hurdles debut) - Gordon Elliotts quote was:-

23Nov19 Gowran Park (16Hy, RPR 143)
He's a grand horse who loves that soft ground. I really fancied him in a winners' bumper last year but there were two fair horses that beat him on the day. He's a nice horse with plenty of improvement in him. He settled well. He's a chaser and anything he does this year will be a bonus for next year - Gordon Elliott, trainer of Easywork

A step up to 2M4F next time out brought that infamous thrashing of odds-on fav Unexcepted by 22 lengths, with an RPR of 153.

Straight into fav for the 2M Grade 1 Hurdle at the DRF after that, which was run over too short a trip, and a runner up finish in a strung-out field (RPR 146) behind easy winner Asterion Forlonge.

Final run in the Ballymore brought a step back up in trip to 2M5F and his best performance to date (RPR 155) when only Envoi Allen could lower his colours, with the Two Bigs well beaten into 3rd and 4th.

He is a 6yo Giggys gelding, so will be off chasing now, and his form over hurdles would rival that of Monkfish (RPR 154), Fury Road (RPR 152) and Latest Exhibition (RPR 152).

His two runs over 2M4F and 2M5F have brought much his best ratings (RPRs of 153 & 155), and for me, if Envoi Allen goes for the Marsh then Gordon will step Easywork up the extra 3F to the RSA this year, rather than having him take on EA at the Festival again. (not sure Giggys would want him taking on EA there again, either)

I think his price of 33/1 for the RSA is a big one, and he is my pick for the race at the prices at this point in time.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Tiger,
I would be more keen on EASYWORK for the RSA Chase than anything at the front of the market.

After a hurdles debut win over 2M from Mount Leinster (RPR 143 on hurdles debut) - Gordon Elliotts quote was:-

23Nov19 Gowran Park (16Hy, RPR 143)
He's a grand horse who loves that soft ground. I really fancied him in a winners' bumper last year but there were two fair horses that beat him on the day. He's a nice horse with plenty of improvement in him. He settled well. He's a chaser and anything he does this year will be a bonus for next year - Gordon Elliott, trainer of Easywork

A step up to 2M4F next time out brought that infamous thrashing of odds-on fav Unexcepted by 22 lengths, with an RPR of 153.

Straight into fav for the 2M Grade 1 Hurdle at the DRF after that, which was run on lightning fast ground on Day 1, over too short a trip, and a runner up place (RPR 146) behind easy winner Asterion Forlonge.

Final run in the Ballymore brought a step back up in trip to 2M5F and his best performance to date (RPR 155) when only Envoi Allen could lower his colours, with the Two Bigs well beaten into 3rd and 4th.

He is a 6yo Giggys gelding, so will be off chasing now, and his form over hurdles would rival that of Monkfish (RPR 154), Fury Road (RPR 152) and Latest Exhibition (RPR 152).

His two runs over 2M4F and 2M5F have brought much his best ratings (RPRs of 153 & 155), and for me, if Envoi Allen goes for the Marsh then Gordon will step Easywork up the extra 3F to the RSA this year, rather than having him take on EA at the Festival again. (not sure Giggys would want him taking on EA there again, either)

I think his price of 33/1 for the RSA is a big one, and he is my pick for the race at the prices at this point in time.
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Compelling case Saxon - I'm on.
 
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