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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

YoungHustler said:
I am a big fan of Sporting John too and was really looking forward to seeing him race against EA in the Ballymore but he just wasn't right and I'm happy to put a line through that race.
Issue for me is which race will he be targeted at as I think Chantry is very likely to be aimed at the Marsh. The RSA is looking really hot so could it be the Arkle? I was planning on waiting until the Autumn before committing as PP were originally at 50s for the Marsh(which I didn't take) but now may just take the any race 25s with Hills.
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I think the RSA is the most open, although also the most competitive, looking at the betting currently.

It differs from the Arkle and Marsh, as we look at the two potential superstars at the head of each market, but outside of them two (god forbid anything should happen to them) they then become wide open.

JP had Fakir in the Arkle and the season before was meant to have been Le Richebourg but for injury, before that though I think a member on here noted he is not renown for having Arkle runners, so I'd suspect either Chantry House/Sporting John could actually meet in the Marsh or one steps up rather than down, IMO.
 
Klassical Dream was mentioned somewhere on the forum but can't find who it was at the moment. Possibly Quevega?

Having missed the festival he's one that's dangerous anyway ante post, and these are the best prices for what I consider the potential targets:

25/1 Arkle (WH)
25/1 Marsh (365)
12/1 Any Race (WH)
40/1 Champion Hurdle (Uni)
Not quoted for the Stayers Hurdle - (Lobos would be disappointed)


If I knew he was staying over hurdles I'd be taking 40/1 straight away for the CH. Would be too big for a Supreme for me to not have a bet on.

However, I feel like he is more likely to go chasing as from memory it was discussed prior to this season, and last season would have nudged them this way? (Guess)

I don't want to take 12/1 about a horse that has missed a festival this far out and although I'm pretty comfortable that he'd go off a shorter starting price, the margin in that for him isn't worthwhile for me.


The hope in previous years is that I'd/we'd get the heads up on target and while I still hope the crumbs of information do fall in my path and onto here before a price is clipped, I think the lack of racing means getting any news under the radar is going to be impossible, and Patrick Mullins will probably mention it somewhere and the prices will be slashed before he makes his chase debut.

So, Arkle with no cashout, Marsh with cash out, or both, or neither... :)
 
Yeah I backed KD at 16's for the Arkle with cash out, prices subsequently went up from other bookmakers so cashed and decided to wait to see what plans are before going in again.
 
Kevloaf said:
Klassical Dream was mentioned somewhere on the forum but can't find who it was at the moment. Possibly Quevega?

Having missed the festival he's one that's dangerous anyway ante post, and these are the best prices for what I consider the potential targets:

25/1 Arkle (WH)
25/1 Marsh (365)
12/1 Any Race (WH)
40/1 Champion Hurdle (Uni)
Not quoted for the Stayers Hurdle - (Lobos would be disappointed)


If I knew he was staying over hurdles I'd be taking 40/1 straight away for the CH. Would be too big for a Supreme for me to not have a bet on.

However, I feel like he is more likely to go chasing as from memory it was discussed prior to this season, and last season would have nudged them this way? (Guess)

I don't want to take 12/1 about a horse that has missed a festival this far out and although I'm pretty comfortable that he'd go off a shorter starting price, the margin in that for him isn't worthwhile for me.


The hope in previous years is that I'd/we'd get the heads up on target and while I still hope the crumbs of information do fall in my path and onto here before a price is clipped, I think the lack of racing means getting any news under the radar is going to be impossible, and Patrick Mullins will probably mention it somewhere and the prices will be slashed before he makes his chase debut.

So, Arkle with no cashout, Marsh with cash out, or both, or neither... :)
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Marsh 25's with cashout , my Reccomendation sir !
 
BigChaang said:
Marsh 25's with cashout , my Reccomendation sir !
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Strike that off the list then.
:highly_amused:



I might be way off but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he's Willie's best horse going Novice Chasing?
(If he goes novice chasing)

Monkfish would be in a different division regardless but that's food for thought, at 25/1.
 
There are very few horse and prices I would be willing to take without cash out or a free bet at this stage and he is certainly not one I would make an exception for without confirmed info at least regarding what he’s jumping over next year. His temperament is definitely something that keeps my enthusiasm in check but there is no denying he is currently an attractive price for all potential races
 
One I haven’t seen mentioned on this thread (somewhat understandably) is Eldorado Allen. Well touted for the Supreme in 2019 before getting injured he reached an OR of 152 after a decent comeback 2nd in December at Sandown. He then had two disappointing efforts including a dire run in the County off top weight in line with most of Tizzard’s horses and he’s back down to an OR of 146. I know Jackie was very keen to see him chasing which I would still expect this season, but haven’t heard anything and he isn’t even listed for the Arkle or the Marsh.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
One I haven’t seen mentioned on this thread (somewhat understandably) is Eldorado Allen. Well touted for the Supreme in 2019 before getting injured he reached an OR of 152 after a decent comeback 2nd in December at Sandown. He then had two disappointing efforts including a dire run in the County off top weight in line with most of Tizzard’s horses and he’s back down to an OR of 146. I know Jackie was very keen to see him chasing which I would still expect this season, but haven’t heard anything and he isn’t even listed for the Arkle or the Marsh.
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I’d think he’ll be going chasing but I’ve handed back my Tizzard Fan Club membership :highly_amused:
 
After backing KD multiple times for the champion before seasonal debut after that poor season I’m looking back and questioning how good a crop were that 2019 supreme runners bottomless ground yes but this season looked visually far better bunch to go forward with
 
Marty973 said:
SHISHKIN

Nicky Henderson speaking in @EquineP interview says ‘SHISHKIN
‘almost certainly to go novice chasing next season. You’d hope he’d be a genuine Arkle contender’

https://twitter.com/brettwmedia/status/1263807813651963905?s=21
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With this news today, there are a couple of points that have crossed my mind.


1. Shishkin can become a key ante post horse for the week. Being the second race, it creates an oppourtunity to have a 4/1 winner rolling onto anything else (bar the Supreme)... That makes is easier to plan and manoeuvre through the rest of the week. It could be a case of playing catch up if it goes wrong, but the potential is certainly eye catching.


2. The Arkle is destined to be a small field again. Shishkin will hopefully be just as good if not better over fences and that'll create a model for this race we've seen numerous times. It should be noted Envoi Allen will be liekly to 'scare' some horses away too.... perhaps neither will be true and both end up a big field, but I don't envisage a DEEP Arkle, despite it looking very exciting this far out.







I'll be looking to make a book in the Arkle as normal, and for clarification, I'd consider Envoi Allen at 9/2 in the Marsh a much, much better bet than Shishkin at 4/1 in the Arkle at this stage.
 
Kevloaf said:
With this news today, there are a couple of points that have crossed my mind.


1. Shishkin can become a key ante post horse for the week. Being the second race, it creates an oppourtunity to have a 4/1 winner rolling onto anything else (bar the Supreme)... That makes is easier to plan and manoeuvre through the rest of the week. It could be a case of playing catch up if it goes wrong, but the potential is certainly eye catching.


2. The Arkle is destined to be a small field again. Shishkin will hopefully be just as good if not better over fences and that'll create a model for this race we've seen numerous times. It should be noted Envoi Allen will be liekly to 'scare' some horses away too.... perhaps neither will be true and both end up a big field, but I don't envisage a DEEP Arkle, despite it looking very exciting this far out.







I'll be looking to make a book in the Arkle as normal, and for clarification, I'd consider Envoi Allen at 9/2 in the Marsh a much, much better bet than Shishkin at 4/1 in the Arkle at this stage.
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I think envoi is the better horse but at the prices I think Shishkin has a much clearer target providing he can jump and therefore at this stage is a safer bet.
 
Kautostar said:
I think envoi is the better horse but at the prices I think Shishkin has a much clearer target providing he can jump and therefore at this stage is a safer bet.
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Safer perhaps.
Not better value though for me.


I'm confident I've got the Envoi Allen target right again and I think he's got loads more chance of winning than Shishkin.





Shishkin only just beat Abacadabras.
Envoi Allen is superior to Abacadabras.


I don't see the two as equals, so whilst I appreciate the target isn't clear for Envoi Allen, if it was I think he should be closer to 2/1 and Shishkin still 4/1.
 
Kevloaf said:
Safer perhaps.
Not better value though for me.


I'm confident I've got the Envoi Allen target right again and I think he's got loads more chance of winning than Shishkin.





Shishkin only just beat Abacadabras.
Envoi Allen is superior to Abacadabras.


I don't see the two as equals, so whilst I appreciate the target isn't clear for Envoi Allen, if it was I think he should be closer to 2/1 and Shishkin still 4/1.
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I’m with you on everything except the target for EA. I’m heavily involved in Shishkin for the Arkle and pretty involved with EA for the Marsh. The fact is Hendo has name checked the Arkle and we just don’t have that with EA’s target. Also do the Alloha developments from this year not cast some doubt? As somebody who is getting stuck into the 3 AB horses for the RSA Envoi Allen rocking up there would be a kick in the balls I need to avoid somehow
 
Yep I agree RC, whilst the Marsh is EA’s likely target it’s by no means certain...
 
I honestly can't see any way in which EA runs in the RSA over fences. He is quick, the way he picked up off the bend in the Ballymore was impressive, and the intermediate trip will suit perfectly.

The RSA would be the outsider if I had to price which race he runs in - the Gold Cup would be a shorter price!
 
Kevloaf said:
With this news today, there are a couple of points that have crossed my mind.


1. Shishkin can become a key ante post horse for the week. Being the second race, it creates an oppourtunity to have a 4/1 winner rolling onto anything else (bar the Supreme)... That makes is easier to plan and manoeuvre through the rest of the week. It could be a case of playing catch up if it goes wrong, but the potential is certainly eye catching.

.
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Kev this news re Shishkin is hardly new news, Hendo and Nico both said straight after Cheltenham that they couldn't wait to see Shishkin over fences and that he would most likely stay at 2 miles with Chantry House stepping up in trip.

However, if you think that Envoi Allen has 'loads more chance of winning the Marsh Chase than Shishkin has of winning the Arkle' why would you be risking doubles with Shishkin. Instead, if you don't rate Goshen but reckon that Epatante already has form in the book to win the CH again then her performance would only be 2 races after Shiskin, so would you not have more confidence of kicking of a range of follow on rest of week Doubles with her than Shishkin ?
 
Istabraq said:
Funny you should say that, have you seen his price on the fair ?
Matched at 38 yesterday...
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Seriously?

If he's foot perfect in his first couple of races, you could imagine people asking the question of the Gold Cup.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I honestly can't see any way in which EA runs in the RSA over fences. He is quick, the way he picked up off the bend in the Ballymore was impressive, and the intermediate trip will suit perfectly.

The RSA would be the outsider if I had to price which race he runs in - the Gold Cup would be a shorter price!
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I agree the intermediate trip would seem perfect but if they are obsessed with him winning a Gold Cup we all know the RSA tends to be the best trial. Here’s how I would price it up:

Marsh 4/7
RSA 2/1
Arkle 10/1
GC 40/1
 
The Allaho comparison isn't valid even though it's the same owners.

Allaho was campaigned over hurdles at 2m5f or further whereas Envoi Allen was basically campaigned mostly at 2m by a different trainer. I'd say there's basically only a tiny chance that EA goes RSA and that 9/2 for the Marsh is much more solid than 4/1 Shishkin in the Arkle although I'm not remotely tempted by either as a single price.
 
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