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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

When you put it like that!

But tizzard didnt have the best festival so maybe didnt have his nags at there peak

I just think that although the form hasnt worked out very well from the tolworth i remember thinking on the day that when he jumps a fence hes going to look really good and if i was to put him in any race right now it would be an arkle..
If im getting excited about anyone though its Fury Road i think the further the better for him so maybe jumping a fence will be perfect he would be my fancy for the RSA at this time
 
Kevloaf said:
Not sure that Tolworth win was as good as it looked though Ray?

The 2nd was walloped next time out 104L
The 3rd was PU at the festival
Hang In There was beaten when falling next time out behind Shishkin.
The Nicholls horse won a couple of weak races at odds on but didn't make the team for Cheltenham?



Could be a case of another over hyped Tizzard horse?


I did like the Tolworth myself at the time... with the limited evidence we've got though he might just be flattered by it?
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I think they have done very well to get a Grade 1 out if him. He got the best ride in the Supreme and it was still a shocking effort.

These days not so sure that those slogs up the Sandown hill convert into Festival winners.
 
archie said:
His losing form is probably better, not unlike Abacadabras. Always worth considering each way but these decent 'professional losers' aren't win only material.
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Yeah it can be an overlooked angle at times. I find myself looking for it quite often but I find it's a more useful tool week-to-week than for ante post. It's very rare a horse would win a festival graded race after being proven inferior to another rival (with Abacadabras again being a good example).

Ray said:
When you put it like that!

But tizzard didnt have the best festival so maybe didnt have his nags at there peak

I just think that although the form hasnt worked out very well from the tolworth i remember thinking on the day that when he jumps a fence hes going to look really good and if i was to put him in any race right now it would be an arkle..
If im getting excited about anyone though its Fury Road i think the further the better for him so maybe jumping a fence will be perfect he would be my fancy for the RSA at this time
Click to expand...

Tizzy not having the best festival seems to be a theme, unless he's got a top notcher.
No doubts he can handle a top horse (where they campaign themselves essentially) but I'd be wary of any of his horses for Cheltenham. Wary might be the wrong word or a little strong but I certainly don't think he's the superpower he's made out to be!

kinloch brae said:
I think they have done very well to get a Grade 1 out if him. He got the best ride in the Supreme and it was still a shocking effort.

These days not so sure that those slogs up the Sandown hill convert into Festival winners.
Click to expand...

It is an interesting read through winners and past winners, without too much effort you could make a case for it being a decent guide but you can also bash in quite easily.

I lean towards removing Yorkhill from the list as it's just not likely we'd see an Irish raider win it in the coming years as Willie won't have the luxury he had that season again as long as Gordon keeps him honest in Ireland.

It does look a weak grade 1 looking back. I remember not being confident beforehand which of the 3 main market hopes would be the winner :)
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah it can be an overlooked angle at times. I find myself looking for it quite often but I find it's a more useful tool week-to-week than for ante post. It's very rare a horse would win a festival graded race after being proven inferior to another rival (with Abacadabras again being a good example).



Tizzy not having the best festival seems to be a theme, unless he's got a top notcher.
No doubts he can handle a top horse (where they campaign themselves essentially) but I'd be wary of any of his horses for Cheltenham. Wary might be the wrong word or a little strong but I certainly don't think he's the superpower he's made out to be!



It is an interesting read through winners and past winners, without too much effort you could make a case for it being a decent guide but you can also bash in quite easily.

I lean towards removing Yorkhill from the list as it's just not likely we'd see an Irish raider win it in the coming years as Willie won't have the luxury he had that season again as long as Gordon keeps him honest in Ireland.

It does look a weak grade 1 looking back. I remember not being confident beforehand which of the 3 main market hopes would be the winner :)
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The one I remember recently in terms of future festival is the Summerville boy and Kalashnikov tolworth but as for the supreme that year, it does look like that was a poor year.
 
Craigy14 said:
The one I remember recently in terms of future festival is the Summerville boy and Kalashnikov tolworth but as for the supreme that year, it does look like that was a poor year.
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Yes that was a strong year for the Tolworth - but zooming out a bit, looks like an exception rather than the rule in terms of Supreme winner perhaps.


Every race (and horse) deserve to be considered regardless, but it's a starting point!
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah it can be an overlooked angle at times. I find myself looking for it quite often but I find it's a more useful tool week-to-week than for ante post. It's very rare a horse would win a festival graded race after being proven inferior to another rival (with Abacadabras again being a good example).



Tizzy not having the best festival seems to be a theme, unless he's got a top notcher.
No doubts he can handle a top horse (where they campaign themselves essentially) but I'd be wary of any of his horses for Cheltenham. Wary might be the wrong word or a little strong but I certainly don't think he's the superpower he's made out to be!



It is an interesting read through winners and past winners, without too much effort you could make a case for it being a decent guide but you can also bash in quite easily.

I lean towards removing Yorkhill from the list as it's just not likely we'd see an Irish raider win it in the coming years as Willie won't have the luxury he had that season again as long as Gordon keeps him honest in Ireland.

It does look a weak grade 1 looking back. I remember not being confident beforehand which of the 3 main market hopes would be the winner :)
Click to expand...

From a punting point of view worth mentioning that following Tizzard blind at the Aintree has paid, havent got the figures to hand but his record there is very good, not sure if this is intentional or just one of those things.
 
Hardy Eustace said:
After he won the Tolworth Tizzard said he’ll go over fences next year. I don’t imagine his run in the supreme will have changed anything.

“A lot will depend on the ground,” Tizzard said. “I’m sure he’ll have an entry in the [two-mile] Supreme and the two-and-a-half [Ballymore Novice Hurdle]. We’ve also got Master Debonair for the Supreme as well [as recent Newbury winner The Big Breakaway] so we’re spoilt for choice and that’s beautiful for our yard going forward, the novice hurdlers are our future.
“They’re three very good horses and I can’t wait to jump a fence with him [Fiddlerontheroof] next year. We had Elixir [De Nutz] who won this race last year and he never made it to Cheltenham, so it’s a case of getting them all there and then it’s a lovely problem to have.”


https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...olworth-hurdle-grade-one-sandown-horse-racing
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Great , Thank's H.E . I have fiddler backed for the Ch. hdl and the arkle ,might bin the ch hdl and add marsh.
 
I’ve said on here before that I think Tizzard is massively overrated as a trainer.

The story of farmer to trainer seemed to blind people into seemingly thinking he’s in the top 5 trainers but he just really isn’t in my view.
 
billymag said:
From a punting point of view worth mentioning that following Tizzard blind at the Aintree has paid, havent got the figures to hand but his record there is very good, not sure if this is intentional or just one of those things.
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Down to some big priced (or unfancied) horses from memory?


I think the "Tizzard Aintree" factor is overbet as well now as it's well highlighted over the last few years...

Small data samples though (and no sample this year!) :stupid:
 
Ultragold popping up at 50/1 in the Topham then following up the year after at 14s with the bonus of the 1-2 thanks to Shananhan's Turn certainly boosted his level stakes stats for the meeting. Often well found his runners in such races now even at the other meets at Aintree but was good while it lasted.
 
kinloch brae said:
I think they have done very well to get a Grade 1 out if him. He got the best ride in the Supreme and it was still a shocking effort.

These days not so sure that those slogs up the Sandown hill convert into Festival winners.
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Pretty sure i read that the hill has gone , for that very reason K,B.
Taking too much out of them pre race.
 
It’s a given that the tolworth hurdle form hasn’t worked out. That said all he can do is beat what he put in front of him and he did it nicely. He is big, strong, scopey horse & every inch a chaser and while I don’t think he’ll win an Arkle, marsh or RSA (or even an NHC - you never know with Tizzard ‘the tit’!!) I do think he will win a good graded novice chase next year.
 
Interesting stats for novice chases:

Marsh - only 10 runnings, 8 Irish trained winners including 5 of the last 6

For the others, Irish winners in the last 20/10/6 runnings:
Arkle 8/5/5
RSA 7/4/2
NHC 6/6/4

Hard to avoid the conclusion that the top Irish trainers see the RSA as a hard race to win and go on from.
 
From memory the past 5 years have been won by the horse bet in on the morning of the race and no horse outside of the top 3 in has won it in its history?

I think Benefficent was the only outsider to win the Marsh (JLT/Golden Miller), every other year has been won by the top 3 in the betting. Therefore the wise move is to hold a bit back for this race until the morning of the race to see who the Irish are backing & betting.
 
Certainly looks like Envoi knows how to jump - looks bombproof for the Marsh already!
 
Vautour said:
Certainly looks like Envoi knows how to jump - looks bombproof for the Marsh already!
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How confident are we Envoi is aiming for the marsh? That PTP is 3 miles. Is anyone bullish on the RSA for envoi 2021?

Personally ive made the call on the marsh but dont want to get too carried away and assume that is definitely his target. (and this is what im starting to do)
 
I’m not hugely confident he goes Marsh, the way he picked up between the last two in the Ballymore tells me he has gears and speed so he wouldn’t look out of place in an Arkle, also worth remembering the ‘will he/won’t he’ Supreme chaos we all endured leading up to Cheltenham, but he clearly has stamina.
He could run in all three, if I was making a book I’d have Marsh 4/7, RSA 15/8 and Arkle 7/2...
 
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