2021 Marsh Novices Chase

[Quevega]

Shit I never knew I had psychic powers till now.

:highly_amused: I pictured you screaming as well

 

[Quevega]

Regardless of people’s views on the merits of “Envoi Allen v Asterion Forlonge”, surely the only valid point is the fact one bookmaker pricing up AF at 33’s is suggesting Envoi Allen is 33 times more likely to win the race.


One horse made some serious jumping errors in last year’s Supreme, taking out other horses. He also fell in his last race over fences.

The other horse won his race at the same festival and looks like he jumps brilliantly over fences, and has won his 2 races over fences.


All points/counter arguments are all tied up in their current prices.

Would you employ a sniper though ?
If Asterion lined up.

 

[Fatcatshat]

I accept that, I’m not saying he doesn’t jump to the right I just think it’s over egged. He has a serious engine. I could well be wrong but I like him, I think EW he’s a good thing. :cheerful:

I have to strongly disagree here, even at 33/1

Firstly, I can’t see him beating envoi, so I’m writing off the win part of that bet.... So at 5th of the odds you’re taking 6.6/1 for the place part, with the win part written off it’s 3.3/1 top 3, take away 1st position (which envoi will fill!) it’s top 2.

Given the risk of not travelling, coupled with the risk of falling if he made it there, I’d say it’s a horrendous bet, even at what looks like a fancy price.

Obviously that all goes to pot if envoi bombs, but surely if you’re looking for an alternative you want something which you’re fairly certain will line up and has a reasonable chance of getting round when there... who that is I’m not sure to be honest, and I’m not particularly inclined to try and find out either really as I’ll only be backing one here.

I don’t mean for this post to sound sarcastic by the way, so I’m sorry if it does! I know you can work out the basic maths, I’m just trying to convey my reasoning!

 

[Rooster Booster]

:highly_amused: I pictured you screaming as well

It wasn’t pretty I dread to think what the neighbours thought . I need to figure out the emojis. Job for the daughter I reckon

 

[Rooster Booster]

Would you employ a sniper though ?
If Asterion lined up.

You know when you’ve been forlonged

 

[Quevega]

It wasn’t pretty I dread to think what the neighbours thought . I need to figure out the emojis. Job for the daughter I reckon

I once had the police called on me.
I was on my own, in the house.

Watching Germany vs England in the world cup when Lampard 'scored'.

My anger and language and 'volume' got the better of me. Partly why I watched it on my own.
I don't think the neighbours like football and weren't watching.

Fortunately the 2 policeman did , and understood.
Just a polite warning was all that was required.

I do get emotional with the football, but it's rarely anger, usually tears, and only when we win.

Which is also why I prefer to watch on my own, as it was a very embarrassing day stood at the back of the Leadmill in floods of tears after Beckham had scored his penalty against the Argentinians.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

After last year’s supreme AF should not be allowed anywhere near Cheltenham unless proven to have had his jumping sorted, or if that’s too radical, then made to line up on the outside. There simply cannot be a situation where that carnage can be repeated, as was said on here earlier, horses could have died jockeys could have been badly injured. Hopefully connections will realise how dangerous it was running him and lining up on the inside, and act accordingly.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Back to the race, I hope connections stick to the opinion that Protektorat will stay at this distance, I really feel with his jumping that he could upset the fav. Also think Fusil Rafflrs at a price will run a big race if ground suits.

 

[Quevega]

After last year’s supreme AF should not be allowed anywhere near Cheltenham unless proven to have had his jumping sorted, or if that’s too radical, then made to line up on the outside. There simply cannot be a situation where that carnage can be repeated, as was said on here earlier, horses could have died jockeys could have been badly injured. Hopefully connections will realise how dangerous it was running him and lining up on the inside, and act accordingly.

If he does turn up and takes the FAV half way up Cleeve Hill.

Will you change your name ?

Be more of an alliteration then.
My English teacher once said I was good at them.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Ha ha, too many carnage’s in my life and not just on a racecourse!!

 

[Rooster Booster]

If he does turn up and takes the FAV half way up Cleeve Hill.

Will you change your name ?

Be more of an alliteration then.
My English teacher once said I was good at them.

Yeh but it would be abbreviated to cac which kind of stinks

 

[Rooster Booster]

Back to the race, I hope connections stick to the opinion that Protektorat will stay at this distance, I really feel with his jumping that he could upset the fav. Also think Fusil Rafflrs at a price will run a big race if ground suits.

Carnage (doesn’t feel right to abbreviate to that Cat is better) who is the horse on your avatar.?

 

[Jorvik]

Can anyone think of a worse (more dangerous) round of jumping at Cheltenham Fest?

Genuinely trying to think can I

I'm not normally the Keith Lard health and safety type, but it was so bad i'd honestly have had the horse banned from left handed tracks til it was proven beyond all doubt that he could do so without causing carnage. It's a sport fraught with enough danger without introducing that craziness into the mix. We were lucky there were no fatalities.

 

[Run4Home]

Regardless of people’s views on the merits of “Envoi Allen v Asterion Forlonge”, surely the only valid point is the fact one bookmaker pricing up AF at 33’s is suggesting Envoi Allen is 33 times more likely to win the race.


One horse made some serious jumping errors in last year’s Supreme, taking out other horses. He also fell in his last race over fences.

The other horse won his race at the same festival and looks like he jumps brilliantly over fences, and has won his 2 races over fences.


All points/counter arguments are all tied up in their current prices.

He still is 33/1 with two bookmakers
Or is related to the fact one horse has been confirmed to go and Asterion may not go?

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Rooster, I have no idea, I just wanted a grey horse as the horse at Taunton was grey, plus the picture had a nice stable lass with the horse but sadly she has been left off !! .....although I do know whete to find the photo!!!!

 

[thorne365]

Regardless of people’s views on the merits of “Envoi Allen v Asterion Forlonge”, surely the only valid point is the fact one bookmaker pricing up AF at 33’s is suggesting Envoi Allen is 33 times more likely to win the race.


One horse made some serious jumping errors in last year’s Supreme, taking out other horses. He also fell in his last race over fences.

The other horse won his race at the same festival and looks like he jumps brilliantly over fences, and has won his 2 races over fences.


All points/counter arguments are all tied up in their current prices.

Small thing but the odds aren't saying this - its an implied ratio of ~3% to ~50% so ~16 timeslayful:

 

[Kevloaf]

I once had the police called on me.
I was on my own, in the house.

Watching Germany vs England in the world cup when Lampard 'scored'.

My anger and language and 'volume' got the better of me. Partly why I watched it on my own.
I don't think the neighbours like football and weren't watching.

Fortunately the 2 policeman did , and understood.
Just a polite warning was all that was required.

I do get emotional with the football, but it's rarely anger, usually tears, and only when we win.

Which is also why I prefer to watch on my own, as it was a very embarrassing day stood at the back of the Leadmill in floods of tears after Beckham had scored his penalty against the Argentinians.

I've got a a piece of the "floor" from the Leadmill in my man cave :highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused:

 

[Quevega]

Small thing but the odds aren't saying this - its an implied ratio of ~3% to ~50% so ~16 timeslayful:

Basic maths ! :encouragement:
I thought it didn't look right, but was obviously too basic for me to work it out :highly_amused:

 

[Madmoose]

Skelton again confirms this is the target for Shan Blue in his Ladbrokes column

 

[Kevloaf]

Skelton again confirms this is the target for Shan Blue in his Ladbrokes column

Shan Blue


He will probably end up going for the Marsh. He goes to Sandown in February for the Scilly Isles en route. He wants to come back in trip rather than go up and I think the RSA could be a step too far too soon.

His biggest asset is his jumping and I’ve been delighted with his progress so far.