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2021 Marsh Novices Chase

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I've gone right off TBG looked through his races today and I don't think he's a very gutsy horse. Every time he's been off the bridle he's lost and all his wins have come at a canter. I don't see him beating Envoi Allen unless EA falls.
 
taylorch1990 said:
I've gone right off TBG looked through his races today and I don't think he's a very gutsy horse. Every time he's been off the bridle he's lost and all his wins have come at a canter. I don't see him beating Envoi Allen unless EA falls.
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I'm of the same opinion.

TBG is only 12/1 for the Marsh (NRNB), that's 4/6 if he finishes 2nd or 3rd.

I don't think he can beat EA so would much rather have 10/11 about the jolly.
 
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I’m surprised they are aiming TBG at the Marsh in all honesty.

From the day he appeared they talked about couldn’t wait to see him over 3m and fences etc etc.

He’ll get brushed aside by EA over the intermediate who has a far far greater burst of speed! Just like the Ballymore, commentator thought EA was in trouble, burners went on and jumped the last level and pulled away.

I know we can’t take what connections say too literally, but even Patrick talking up the chances of a 4 miler ride for him seems strange that they seem happy to stick at 2m 4f.
 
I would hope this race with a fair few others will have some enticing without the Fav NRNB markets at some point. I’d much rather back one each way in that market than one with EA in even though I have him covered
 
Jorvik said:
Given how the overwhelming majority feel about this race, I think someone has to play devils advocate and ask the following... Is there an argument that exists for Envoi Allen being overrated? Discuss...
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- A career portfolio of 11 races under rules of 11111111111

- The shortest ever priced winner of a Cheltenham Festival 2m 5f Novices Hurdle

- A trainer that has been quoted as saying the horse is & will be equally adept at either 2 miles or 3.

- Has been purchased as a Gold Cup horse in the future.


He’s probably underrated even still at evens money for the Marsh. He’ll very likely go off at an identical price to last year’s Ballymore @ 4/7.

Very much just ‘rated very, very highly’.
 
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EnvoyAllen said:
- A career resum? under 11 races under rules of 11111111111

- The shortest ever priced winner of a Cheltenham Festival 2m 5f Novices Hurdle

- A trainer that has been quoted as saying the horse is & will be equally adept at either 2 miles or 3.

- Has been purchased as a Gold Cup horse in the future.


He’s probably underrated even still at evens money for the Marsh. He’ll very likely go off at an identical price to last year’s Ballymore @ 4/7.

Very much just ‘rated very, very highly’.
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You've let me down.
I was certain you'd respond in less than 4 hours.
over 6 hours is slack IMO.

And a lot more concise than usual :encouragement:
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
I'm of the same opinion.

TBG is only 12/1 for the Marsh (NRNB), that's 4/6 if he finishes 2nd or 3rd.

I don't think he can beat EA so would much rather have 10/11 about the jolly.
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Another pragmatic point.

As a keen each way backer, I still have no arguement whatsoever to this.
 
I genuinely do think that Envoi Allen can be beaten by Asterion Forlonge. Captain Guinness and Elixir D'ainay were beaten by him in the Supreme last season!

In all seriousness, on racecourse evidence Envoi Allen just wins, and his price is both right and reflects that. But he has to jump, and so do the horses in front of him. Asterion Forlonge if he runs and shows last seasons tendencies could cause carnage. He's a quality horse though and Willie and Joe may still choose to run him.

I'm sure we all have had the backlash from the dead cert in the past that's hurt bad. I'll be far from alone on here from having woken up in a cold sweat reliving the nightmare of Annie Power's last hurdle fall for example!
 
I’ll be furious if Forlonge goes this and starts causing carnage, could be an anxious watch for Envoi bets.

As Envoi is so good could he do a Vautour and just make all and win? I’d much prefer that but Shan Blue and Forlonge would most likely be up there.
 
Spectre said:
I genuinely do think that Envoi Allen can be beaten by Asterion Forlonge. Captain Guinness and Elixir D'ainay were beaten by him in the Supreme last season!

In all seriousness, on racecourse evidence Envoi Allen just wins, and his price is both right and reflects that. But he has to jump, and so do the horses in front of him. Asterion Forlonge if he runs and shows last seasons tendencies could cause carnage. He's a quality horse though and Willie and Joe may still choose to run him.

I'm sure we all have had the backlash from the dead cert in the past that's hurt bad. I'll be far from alone on here from having woken up in a cold sweat reliving the nightmare of Annie Power's last hurdle fall for example!
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20/1 AF is very appealing. Sure EA will probably win, but I think he'll hit the frame.
 
Crolwey113 said:
Haven't they said a few times could be unlikely AF goes back to Cheltenham though?

Wouldn't be touching him without NRNB and even at that given how he ran and jumped last year wouldn't appeal in the slightest
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There are some very forgiving people on this forum. :devilish:

They should target Fairyhouse and I think they will.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
There are some very forgiving people on this forum. :devilish:

They should target Fairyhouse and I think they will.
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:welcoming::welcoming: I am going to take the simple approach for this race ; back Envoi and nothing else :welcoming:
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
There are some very forgiving people on this forum. :devilish:

They should target Fairyhouse and I think they will.
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Despite being on Shishkin at very fancy prices last year AF turned the race into a complete farce imo and how the hell connections felt it was appropriate to line up on the inside I really don’t know. My blood still boils now thinking about it and a horse or jockey could have died. That is not racing as I ever want to see it. This isn’t after timing as I was screaming at the top of my voice when I saw how they were lining up. it was unnecessary risk taking. The human had a choice the horses did not. If he runs at Cheltenham it will be the only race in many many years of the festival that I will not have watched. I will come back into the room and ask are all the horses and jocks ok and then get ready for the next race. I apologise for the melodrama and I apologise if I have offended anybody it is not my intention. It’s just how I feel.
 
Crolwey113 said:
Haven't they said a few times could be unlikely AF goes back to Cheltenham though?

Wouldn't be touching him without NRNB and even at that given how he ran and jumped last year wouldn't appeal in the slightest
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Absolutely. Even if he did come over ( which is very, very, doubtful) I wouldn't touch him. He needs a Govt Health Warning.
 
He's Getabird II (whatever happened to him?).
 
A consideration this year as small as it might be yet is the Irish bringing smaller squads due to logistics of travel which could be in place. If that does happens a horse which jumps right I doubt will be too high on the list to travel
 
Crolwey113 said:
Haven't they said a few times could be unlikely AF goes back to Cheltenham though?

Wouldn't be touching him without NRNB and even at that given how he ran and jumped last year wouldn't appeal in the slightest
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Did they actually say Cheltenham? Or was it more likely they just stick to right handed tracks.

Getabird finished 11th in one of the worst Supremes of recent times, at least Asterion Forlonge was clever enough to take out half the opposition in his!
 
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His jumping to the right this season has not been that bad?! It’s completely being overdone! :nightmare:
 
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