2021 Marsh Novices Chase

[Quevega]

Shan Blue


He will probably end up going for the Marsh. He goes to Sandown in February for the Scilly Isles en route. He wants to come back in trip rather than go up and I think the RSA could be a step too far too soon.

His biggest asset is his jumping and I’ve been delighted with his progress so far.

It makes you wonder about Protektorat.
He's ran at Cheltenham 6 times in his career, and would have made it 7 with the dipper.
I hope they go RSA with him, as I got fancy prices.
And he doesn't mention him at all in his column even though he runs on saturday.
His breeding is not obvious 3m stayer, but there are plenty of saint des saints progeny that achieved high chase ratings over staying trips.

If they seem so set on Shan Blue for the Marsh.
Why would they not run Protektorat in the RSA ?
Surely the jockey would want to ride them both.
And why skip Cheltenham with Protektorat when he's spent half his life there.

I've seen the comments they've made by the way, but they both seem quite cautious with post race comments in general.
They've almost took the course that JackieMoon33 runs.

 

[Lobos]

Shan Blue


He will probably end up going for the Marsh. He goes to Sandown in February for the Scilly Isles en route. He wants to come back in trip rather than go up and I think the RSA could be a step too far too soon.

His biggest asset is his jumping and I’ve been delighted with his progress so far.

It's definitely the right decision imo. He doesn't look like your typical RSA horse. They wouldn't want to bottom him out in a grinding battle with Monkfish and LA and spoil him going forward. I think his other horse Protektorat looks more of an RSA type. He piled it on from the front and still had loads left in the tank at the line last time.

 

[Kevloaf]

It makes you wonder about Protektorat.
He's ran at Cheltenham 6 times in his career, and would have made it 7 with the dipper.
I hope they go RSA with him, as I got fancy prices.
And he doesn't mention him at all in his column even though he runs on saturday.
His breeding is not obvious 3m stayer, but there are plenty of saint des saints progeny that achieved high chase ratings over staying trips.

If they seem so set on Shan Blue for the Marsh.
Why would they not run Protektorat in the RSA ?
Surely the jockey would want to ride them both.
And why skip Cheltenham with Protektorat when he's spent half his life there.

I've seen the comments they've made by the way, but they both seem quite cautious with post race comments in general.
They've almost took the course that JackieMoon33 runs.

The NRNB double is 194/1

So I'll back that with the free bet and worry about it closer to the time.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Quevega

Every chance Protektorat ends up heading down a handicap route, if he thinks intermediate distance will suite best this season then the Plate would be favourite and if they do fancy a step up they could take in the Ultima.
It sounds like they think he’s a graded horse but don’t want to risk a brutal 3m novice chase (ex RSA) and they don’t want to tackle Envoi Allen, so why not take your grade 1 horse to a handicap as seems the modern thinking, see how good he is next year in open company....

 

[Quevega]

Quevega

Every chance Protektorat ends up heading down a handicap route, if he thinks intermediate distance will suite best this season then the Plate would be favourite and if they do fancy a step up they could take in the Ultima.
It sounds like they think he’s a graded horse but don’t want to risk a brutal 3m novice chase (ex RSA) and they don’t want to tackle Envoi Allen, so why not take your grade 1 horse to a handicap as seems the modern thinking, see how good he is next year in open company....

I could see that happening.
But think it's idiocy personally.

A rating of 154 puts him right up there as a Novice champion candidate.
The first 5 home in the RSA last year were all rated lower. And the highest rated horse in the race was only 155.
His mark should not go up if he wins the dipper Saturday as he's against inferior rated horses.

Do I think the RSA is brutal - not in my opinion.

Especially, when compared to running a novice in a handicap with twice as many runners off likely top weight.
And the Ultima would be an even more ridiculous option, due to the trip concerns they've mentioned early in the season. IMO

They could go for the Plate though.
I would just question that personally.

 

[Lobos]

Quevega

Every chance Protektorat ends up heading down a handicap route, if he thinks intermediate distance will suite best this season then the Plate would be favourite and if they do fancy a step up they could take in the Ultima.
It sounds like they think he’s a graded horse but don’t want to risk a brutal 3m novice chase (ex RSA) and they don’t want to tackle Envoi Allen, so why not take your grade 1 horse to a handicap as seems the modern thinking, see how good he is next year in open company....

Great shout.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I could see that happening.
But think it's idiocy personally.

A rating of 154 puts him right up there as a Novice champion candidate.
The first 5 home in the RSA last year were all rated lower. And the highest rated horse in the race was only 155.
His mark should not go up if he wins the dipper Saturday as he's against inferior rated horses.

Do I think the RSA is brutal - not in my opinion.

Especially, when compared to running a novice in a handicap with twice as many runners off likely top weight.
And the Ultima would be an even more ridiculous option, due to the trip concerns they've mentioned early in the season. IMO

They could go for the Plate though.
I would just question that personally.

I don't disagree Q but the modern trainer thinking doesn't always align with our thinking.
If you have a 154 rated horse you think is a 160+ horse then why not hoover up a handicap ?
You're right about the 3m novice chase, it used to be brutal but the introduction of the Marsh combined with trainers sending so many novices to handicaps has meant the field is much reduced these days compared to 20 years ago...

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Lobos

My point is always consider the curve ball, just because a horse looks like a Marsh/3m horse doesn't mean they will head to those races.
Of the 4 races open to Protektorat you could argue the Plate is the most suitable, whether Skelton thinks that way is another matter...

 

[Lobos]

Lobos

My point is always consider the curve ball, just because a horse looks like a Marsh/3m horse doesn't mean they will head to those races.
Of the 4 races open to Protektorat you could argue the Plate is the most suitable, whether Skelton thinks that way is another matter...

I always wait until the week itself to do a couple of big Ew Cross doubles a day on the handicaps which have proved very profitable (normally get 6 places). If he goes that route then I'll definitely be adding him into one of them !

 

[jonthehammer]

I always wait until the week itself to do a couple of big Ew Cross doubles a day on the handicaps which have proved very profitable (normally get 6 places). If he goes that route then I'll definitely be adding him into one of them !

Love those bets Lobos, always do them myself

 

[Hardy Eustace]

I cannot have Shan Blue at all for this race at the prices. I completely understand why he is the price he is but at 16's in one place but generally 12-14/1 - I would be strongly against him.

All of its best form is on flat tracks and I really don't think Cheltenham will suit. If he was mine I would be waiting for Aintree he'd have a cracking chance in the Manifesto or the 3mile grade 1.

I accept there is limited evidence of him on proper galloping tracks but at 12/1 and against the most solid favourite of the week, I am not going to pay to find out.

 

[Quevega]

I cannot have Shan Blue at all for this race at the prices. I completely understand why he is the price he is but at 16's in one place but generally 12-14/1 - I would be strongly against him.

All of its best form is on flat tracks and I really don't think Cheltenham will suit. If he was mine I would be waiting for Aintree he'd have a cracking chance in the Manifesto or the 3mile grade 1.

I accept there is limited evidence of him on proper galloping tracks but at 12/1 and against the most solid favourite of the week, I am not going to pay to find out.

I agree, and with Protektorat in the team also.
I'm surprised they have pretty much committed Shan Blue already.

 

[Kevloaf]

Shan Blue reminds me of Ptit Zig

Where, he's good, but I just don't care about him taking on Vautour. :eek-new:

 

[EnvoyAllen]

Small thing but the odds aren't saying this - its an implied ratio of ~3% to ~50% so ~16 timeslayful:

All I know is 1x33 is 33. Evens on your pound or 33 pounds on your pound.

For me, that’s good enough to realise there’s 33 more reasons a couple of bookmakers currently have as their prices stand, that Asterion Forlonge is very unlikely to be ahead of Envoi Allen at the finishing line.

 

[Craigy14]

It makes you wonder about Protektorat.
He's ran at Cheltenham 6 times in his career, and would have made it 7 with the dipper.
I hope they go RSA with him, as I got fancy prices.
And he doesn't mention him at all in his column even though he runs on saturday.
His breeding is not obvious 3m stayer, but there are plenty of saint des saints progeny that achieved high chase ratings over staying trips.

If they seem so set on Shan Blue for the Marsh.
Why would they not run Protektorat in the RSA ?
Surely the jockey would want to ride them both.
And why skip Cheltenham with Protektorat when he's spent half his life there.

I've seen the comments they've made by the way, but they both seem quite cautious with post race comments in general.
They've almost took the course that JackieMoon33 runs.

That’s where I’m at Q.

Very bizarre that they would skip Cheltenham with Protektorat considering he’s raced so much there!

Reading the above about a handicap, although possible is very very strange imo. He is also rated 2lbs higher than Shan Blue over fences having raced 1 less. If he doesn’t win the dipper by half the straight (a fall aside) then something is definitely up and Skelton should be up at the stewards office!

P.S unless post race vet finds something wrong.:highly_amused:

 

[taylorch1990]

Apologies if this has already been mentioned but reading quotes from Paul Nicholls on Hitman and he says it's unlikely he'll run at Cheltenham this season.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

Apologies if this has already been mentioned but reading quotes from Paul Nicholls on Hitman and he says it's unlikely he'll run at Cheltenham this season.

Wonder if that will change if he bolts up in the Scilly Isles?

Bit silly really the owners should have run him at Wincanton on Saturday and Protektorat at Sandown, after Cheltenham was called off.

if he was to win could it encourage connections to step Protektorat up in trip?


I think I am going to back Protektorat for the marsh he has drifted to a fair enough price now but there’s just a little niggle in the back of my head that he’d be better over 3 miles (and he wouldn’t have EA to face)

 

[Cooldaddy]

Couldn't have Protektorat to win at Cheltenham, simply not good enough. Cant beat EA and there are a few who would eat it in the RSA. Only chance would be a blast from the front in the Arkle (as he is a good jumper) and hope Shishkin doesn't get round.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

Couldn't have Protektorat to win at Cheltenham, simply not good enough. Cant beat EA and there are a few who would eat it in the RSA. Only chance would be a blast from the front in the Arkle (as he is a good jumper) and hope Shishkin doesn't get round.

I agree beating EA could prove a bridge too far.

The race could have less than 8 runners if EA does make it there and 25/1 with 3 places I think will look quite attractive come the big day.

...and if EA does get injured 25/1 could look generous too.

There doesnt look to be that much strength and depth, IMO - Who would you have filling the places?

 

[Grand Canyon]

Envoi, Asterion and Andy all entered up at punchestown on Sunday.