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2021 Marsh Novices Chase

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Given how the overwhelming majority feel about this race, I think someone has to play devils advocate and ask the following... Is there an argument that exists for Envoi Allen being overrated? Discuss...
 
Jorvik said:
Given how the overwhelming majority feel about this race, I think someone has to play devils advocate and ask the following... Is there an argument that exists for Envoi Allen being overrated? Discuss...
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I don't believe so myself.

However, a horse is never unbeatable, due to varying factors, and looking elsewhere for potential value is what I would always be looking to do.
 
Jorvik said:
Given how the overwhelming majority feel about this race, I think someone has to play devils advocate and ask the following... Is there an argument that exists for Envoi Allen being overrated? Discuss...
Click to expand...

I was just about to ask if EA is over priced at 10/11 NRNB. He's a bigger price than Shishkin which doesn't seem right to me and his SP has to be much shorter than 10/11, doesn't it?
 
I think the only horse that’ll give him a race will be Asterion Forlonge personally :butterfly:
 
Jorvik said:
Given how the overwhelming majority feel about this race, I think someone has to play devils advocate and ask the following... Is there an argument that exists for Envoi Allen being overrated? Discuss...
Click to expand...

I think there is an argument yes... but not one I agree with :playful:

If (massive if) you put aside his hurdle form, he hasn't beaten much over fences at all. I don't think he has had his jumping put under pressure at any point this season, so he does need to prove that he is as good as I think almost everyone thinks (and hopes) he is.
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
Only way envoi gets beat is if that nut job knocks him over
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Haha! I obviously don’t want to see EA beaten..

I think AF’s jumping has been ok so far. A fence will hopefully sort him out. Was jumping great before he came down the last day and it was an unlucky fall really.

I just think Townend went to Limerick (I think) to ride AF especially so the yard clearly think he’s decent and he turned down a few good rides elsewhere to do that.

33/1 seems like value to me. Ran on well in the supreme after jumping horrifically. Can’t see him out of the first 3 in March.
:tyrannosaurus:
 
Based on his last run I think The Big Getaway will put it up to Envoi in this. The thought of them going hammer and tongs over the last few fences is making me dribble. I can see TBG trying to make all with Envoi waiting to pounce. Do I think there should be 16 points between them? Hell no.
 
Topofthegame2021 said:
Haha! I obviously don’t want to see EA beaten..

I think AF’s jumping has been ok so far. A fence will hopefully sort him out. Was jumping great before he came down the last day and it was an unlucky fall really.

I just think Townend went to Limerick (I think) to ride AF especially so the yard clearly think he’s decent and he turned down a few good rides elsewhere to do that.

33/1 seems like value to me. Ran on well in the supreme after jumping horrifically. Can’t see him out of the first 3 in March.
:tyrannosaurus:
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Hes gotta run to finish first 3 though

Must be a good right handed race for him before punchestown

Think there's one at fairyhouse isnt there
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
Hes gotta run to finish first 3 though

Must be a good right handed race for him before punchestown

Think there's one at fairyhouse isnt there
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There is 16/1 NRNB for him with PP..... so whilst he technically does still have to run to finish in the first 3, no risk to him not running at all.


I'd personally be surprised to see him make the trip over... I don't think he's booked his spot yet anyway.
 
Kevloaf said:
There is 16/1 NRNB for him with PP..... so whilst he technically does still have to run to finish in the first 3, no risk to him not running at all.


I'd personally be surprised to see him make the trip over... I don't think he's booked his spot yet anyway.
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Agree. Anyone backing AF anything other than NRNB is risking it (was tempted to say mad but not brave enough). I too don't think he'll make the trip. In fact I bloody hope he doesn't as a repeat of last year could wipe the entire field out and the 2000 members at the course.
 
Lobos said:
Based on his last run I think The Big Getaway will put it up to Envoi in this. The thought of them going hammer and tongs over the last few fences is making me dribble. I can see TBG trying to make all with Envoi waiting to pounce. Do I think there should be 16 points between them? Hell no.
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Yes Lobos, I agree entirely and I don't think Willie M or the Donnelly's will be worried at all about taking EA on. IMO It could be one of the races of the week. I have no doubt though that if something goes wrong with Monkfish, then TBG will end up in the RSA.
 
Lobos said:
Based on his last run I think The Big Getaway will put it up to Envoi in this. The thought of them going hammer and tongs over the last few fences is making me dribble. I can see TBG trying to make all with Envoi waiting to pounce. Do I think there should be 16 points between them? Hell no.
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Are you forgetting that he put it up to EA in the Ballymore last season and was well beaten?

I can't see how he reverses the form if they both run their race.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Are you forgetting that he put it up to EA in the Ballymore last season and was well beaten?

I can't see how he reverses the form if they both run their race.
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Neither can I.

TBG has to go RSA for me to have any chance of a festival victory.
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
Are you forgetting that he put it up to EA in the Ballymore last season and was well beaten?

I can't see how he reverses the form if they both run their race.
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..........3 foot higher obstacles maybe......
 
Lobos said:
..........3 foot higher obstacles maybe......
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Not sure that is enough to make up the 8 lengths and TBG did have the run of the race in the Ballymore too.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Not sure that is enough to make up the 8 lengths and TBG did have the run of the race in the Ballymore too.
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Unlike Envoi, TBG was never going to make a hurdler so his performance over the smaller obstacles can be marked up a fair bit. Mullins and co always said he'd make a far better chaser and his last run proved them right beating a highly rated horse into 2nd. I want Envoi to win for obvious reasons but TBG will be a very difficult and different challenge to what he's met to date over fences. He's very good.
 
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