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2021 Arkle Novices Chase

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dannycraigpirates said:
Had a very similar discussion earlier with a group of friends - Enurgemene has made all in every race to date but I don’t think he’s one who’s tearing away off the front. I actually think you’ll see AMK be given an easy lead, with Shishkin sat on the tail of Enurgemene
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Yeah it’s the only nagging doubt In the back of my mind, even his hurdle win he made all. He might not be a tear away but some horses can underperform and if he isn’t at his very very best he won’t be beating shishkin. He also has edged slightly right so could that become more apparent if he’s put under pressure?
 
Kevloaf said:
Worded slightly wrong, but PU, BD and F are 3 of his last 5 figures....

I've backed it though, thought 12/1 NRNB e/w is fair enough in what might be a tiny lil field.
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Agreed. Me too.
 
I’d be surprised if he made it round. Were he to, I’m still convinced there’s 2 in front of him.
 
Garrison Savannah said:
I’d be surprised if he made it round. Were he to, I’m still convinced there’s 2 in front of him.
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Who?

Captain Guinness?


Well in that case he can sail in 4th and we'll collect.
 
I know it's NRNB so don't matter.
But I'd say Captain Guiness is unlikely to travel over now.
Looks a hard race for any horses that have not had a smooth prep.
Assuming the front 3 stand their ground.
 
:devilish:And he's got no fucking chance (Arakan FFS)
 
Quevega said:
Be interesting what rating Allmankind does get after that and whether the handicapper may have to reduce Sky Pirate a couple.

With the UK and Irish handicapper's playing silly buggers over the other 2's ratings this makes it hard to rate today's performance as by rights it was worthy of 165+

giving 3lbs an a 17l beating to a 152 horse with solid handicap form. In a good time.
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RP has stuck up a 165 for the winner and 147 for Sky Pirate, given he got a 157,158 for his last two runs at 2m they might do nothing as he was on an upward curve and might require another below par effort(not that today was poor) before dropping. They don't like dropping horses who have won 2 of the last 3 starts usually.
 
Quevega said:
I know it's NRNB so don't matter.
But I'd say Captain Guiness is unlikely to travel over now.
Looks a hard race for any horses that have not had a smooth prep.
Assuming the front 3 stand their ground.
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Unlikely to travel over?

Don't be daft.



He has a massive chance of coming in the first 4.

...and it's NRNB. :afro:
 
Outlaw said:
RP has stuck up a 165 for the winner and 147 for Sky Pirate, given he got a 157,158 for his last two runs at 2m they might do nothing as he was on an upward curve and might require another below par effort(not that today was poor) before dropping. They don't like dropping horses who have won 2 of the last 3 starts usually.
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Yeah, I understand.
It's just the admission last week that they were guessing the top novice ratings and moving them to react to another horse over the sea !!! - which I found bizarre.
Makes you wonder if they would manufacture something here and Sky Pirate may be the beneficiary.
From what they did last week they surely don't want Allmankind to be rated higher than Shishkin 164 & Energumene 163 ?
Or even within a couple of pounds.
They'll probably go about 160 looking at the RPR, but IMO this would be backed up with a drop for Sky Pirate.
Who got 7lb for 2L last time and 9lb for 3L the time before that.
Harsh is not the word.
 
Kevloaf said:
Unlikely to travel over?

Don't be daft.



He has a massive chance of coming in the first 4.

...and it's NRNB. :afro:
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We shall see.
Kevin.
Massive chance my arse.
 
Quevega said:
We shall see.
Kevin.
Massive chance my arse.
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Run me through all the horses that'll be running and finishing ahead of him?

Shishkin (which is moot)
Energumene.
Allmankind?
Franco De Port?
Darver Star?
Blackbow?
Sky Pirate?
Felix Desjy?
Unexcepted?
Embittered?
Eldorado Allen?
Le Patriote?
Sporting John?
Fisul Raffles?
Allart?
Hitman?
Klassical Dream?
Envoi Allen?
Zambella?
Fast Buck?
Chatham Street Lad?



I'm all ears, it looks a market with some value in if it's easy to rule Captain Guinness out of that list.
 
To be fair Kev.
He might only need to travel over and get round as it looks very much like there maybe only 5 or 6 runners.
 
Just wanted you to list some horses :highly_amused:
:loyal:
Like I said, it's the travelling that might be the hardest part.
Shy old boy is Henry.
Won't like coming into a race like this off the back of a fall.
 
Quevega said:
Just wanted you to list some horses :highly_amused:
:loyal:
Like I said, it's the travelling that might be the hardest part.
Shy old boy is Henry.
Won't like coming into a race like this off the back of a fall.
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Put The Kettle On alone is enough reason for me to think you're wrong.

He's not shy at all. imo :apathy:



Get on, 12/1 NRNB without - it's a no brainer :loyal: :stupid:
 
Quevega said:
Yeah, I understand.
It's just the admission last week that they were guessing the top novice ratings and moving them to react to another horse over the sea !!! - which I found bizarre.
Makes you wonder if they would manufacture something here and Sky Pirate may be the beneficiary.
From what they did last week they surely don't want Allmankind to be rated higher than Shishkin 164 & Energumene 163 ?
Or even within a couple of pounds.
They'll probably go about 160 looking at the RPR, but IMO this would be backed up with a drop for Sky Pirate.
Who got 7lb for 2L last time and 9lb for 3L the time before that.
Harsh is not the word.
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Haha yeah last weeks antics of our boy is better than yours was comical to say the least, there really has not been any consistency to what they dish out my thinking is that having had two very strong runs i'd be a tad surprised if they started going the other way with his rating after one run that in the grand scheme of things that was respectable today was all.
 
Kevloaf said:
Put The Kettle On alone is enough reason for me to think you're wrong.

He's not shy at all. imo :apathy:



Get on, 12/1 NRNB without - it's a no brainer :loyal: :stupid:
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I'm not going to bother.
But would concede that should he get declared then it's not a bad bet.:encouragement:.

I'd not fully thought it out, about the likely low number of runners when originally commenting in my flippant, light hearted manner.
But not worth it for an even money shot to place. IMO.
 
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Kevloaf said:
Put The Kettle On alone is enough reason for me to think you're wrong.

He's not shy at all. imo :apathy:



Get on, 12/1 NRNB without - it's a no brainer :loyal: :stupid:
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I’m on CG from way back this season each way, and I ain’t given up on that at all, think he’s improving all the time and I would love to see a good/soft first day.
 
Outlaw said:
Haha yeah last weeks antics of our boy is better than yours was comical to say the least, there really has not been any consistency to what they dish out my thinking is that having had two very strong runs i'd be a tad surprised if they started going the other way with his rating after one run that in the grand scheme of things that was respectable today was all.
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If I was connected to Sky Pirate and he gives Allmankind less than mine got for winning handicaps. And didn't drop me one or two.
He'd get an email, and amongst other words in the said email would be the words useless and cunt.

But I agree.
It will be interesting what he does as I mentioned earlier in the thread as by rights he's got to go high on the winner.
 
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Quevega said:
If I was connected to Sky Pirate and he gives Allmankind less than mine got for winning handicaps. And didn't drop me one or two.
He'd get an email, and amongst other words in the said email would be the words useless and cunt.

But I agree.
It will be interesting what he does as I mentioned earlier in the thread as by rights he's got to go high on the winner.
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Does the handicapper usually drop a horse for one defeat though?
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
I’m on CG from way back this season each way, and I ain’t given up on that at all, think he’s improving all the time and I would love to see a good/soft first day.
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Fast becoming one of the most loyal punters on here.:applause:
How's he shown you he's improving ?
And you've virtually no chance of seeing that ground for the first chase on day one.
It'll be far closer to soft than good.

That w/o the FAV bet at 12-1 is a far better bet than any bets placed on the horse since the season started, and that's because there may only be 5 runners.
Are you tempted to back this as well ?
 
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