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2021 Arkle Novices Chase

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Kevloaf said:
Put The Kettle On alone is enough reason for me to think you're wrong.

He's not shy at all. imo :apathy:



Get on, 12/1 NRNB without - it's a no brainer :loyal: :stupid:
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Double him up with PTKO 9/1 ew w/o CPS. Who wants just one winner (in second)

Your thoughts were the same as mine when I went through the entries last week. Got Energumene and Shishkin, don't fancy Allmankind at all and there doesn't appear to be much else.

My first thoughts - before DRF - were that Unexcepted was the value, but I've cashed that and switched to Captain Guinness. If he stays up, I'd be very surprised if he's not in the first 4. If he stays up...
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Does the handicapper usually drop a horse for one defeat though?
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No.
That was my point.
But does he put a horse up cos another horse in another country looks good, and he wants "his horse" to be rated higher ????

He could easily say that having thought about it he was unduly harsh on the pirate (which would be fair comment, as it stands) when rating him previously.
 
Quevega said:
Fast becoming one of the most loyal punters on here.:applause:
How's he shown you he's improving ?
And you've virtually no chance of seeing that ground for the first chase on day one.
It'll be far closer to soft than good.

That w/o the FAV bet at 12-1 is a far better bet than any bets placed on the horse since the season started, and that's because there may only be 5 runners.
Are you tempted to back this as well ?
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Yep I would be tempted if I knew the ground suited, think it’s vital is not soft or worse .
His last run looked to me an improvement on his previous, but of course I do accept he fell and so cannot know how he would have finished, but I was thinking just before he fell that this was better from him.
 
Captain Chris said:
Double him up with PTKO 9/1 ew w/o CPS. Who wants just one winner (in second)

Your thoughts were the same as mine when I went through the entries last week. Got Energumene and Shishkin, don't fancy Allmankind at all and there doesn't appear to be much else.

My first thoughts - before DRF - were that Unexcepted was the value, but I've cashed that and switched to Captain Guinness. If he stays up, I'd be very surprised if he's not in the first 4. If he stays up...
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I actually thought Franco De Port was the best one at 9/1 pre DRF.... (and backed it)..... and then Blackbow got within 0.75L of him,l so now I think he's shit. :watermelon:
 
FDP made a horrible mistake that put him out the back, so recovered nicely in my view. He went from not on my list to on my list because of that run.
 
Allart, Beat the Judge, Fast Buck, Gumball, Harambe,, Hitman, Malystic, Sporting John, Zambella, Envoi, Epson du Houx, Janidil, Klassical Dream and Unexcepted scratched.
 
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Klassical Dream re-instated to the NR column :highly_amused:

Glad I cashed Allart the other day..... huge error to not be aware this was happening today.

Hopefully no-one stung too badly
 
Unexcepted and Andy Dufresne are becoming very expensive horses to rate
 
Does anyone know what the rules are for the Skybet NRNB place market? I couldn't find them in their rules section.

There are currently only 19 entries left for this, so thinking there could be some value selections here, but don't want to find out that it drops to 2 places depending on runners.
 
PaisleyClegg said:
Does anyone know what the rules are for the Skybet NRNB place market? I couldn't find them in their rules section.

There are currently only 19 entries left for this, so thinking there could be some value selections here, but don't want to find out that it drops to 2 places depending on runners.
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If you back with 3 places, you will be settled on that no matter how many runners as it is still an ante-post market. If only 3 runners show up, you get paid 3 places. The 2018 Arkle which Footpad won had only 5 runners, so people who backed runners ante-post still got 3 places. It is on the bookie itself to remove the additional places.

A race like the Marsh this year may end up with only 5 or 6 runners, I have a couple of selections in the W/O Envoi Allen market with 3 places. So assuming EA wins and its a 5 runner field, I would get paid out once my selection finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th if I back them e/w (preferably finishes 2nd to EA).

Long winded answer but I'm sure you get the picture..
 
Thanks PresentingPercy88 , I couldn't see the available places listed at the top of the market or when I clicked into the rules.

Is it safe to assume that it would be 3 places? Does NRNB invalidate normal antepost rules?
 
PaisleyClegg said:
Thanks PresentingPercy88 , I couldn't see the available places listed at the top of the market or when I clicked into the rules.

Is it safe to assume that it would be 3 places? Does NRNB invalidate normal antepost rules?
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NRNB is still technically ante-post, you just have the insurance of getting your money back if its a non runner. Bookies will give extra places for some races vs other bookies in ante-post, all a ploy to get your money instead of their competitors.

Don't think NRNB would have existed 10 years ago (I could be wrong), bookies use it to draw in custom.
 
PresentingPercy88 said:
If you back with 3 places, you will be settled on that no matter how many runners as it is still an ante-post market. If only 3 runners show up, you get paid 3 places. The 2018 Arkle which Footpad won had only 5 runners, so people who backed runners ante-post still got 3 places. It is on the bookie itself to remove the additional places.

A race like the Marsh this year may end up with only 5 or 6 runners, I have a couple of selections in the W/O Envoi Allen market with 3 places. So assuming EA wins and its a 5 runner field, I would get paid out once my selection finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th if I back them e/w (preferably finishes 2nd to EA).

Long winded answer but I'm sure you get the picture..
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You might want to check that with Sky.
I seem to remember that they had a sentence (it's gone now) saying that their place only market would pay out on the standard place terms derived from the number of runners at the off.
So if place only betting in the Arkle beware that they may well only pay out on a top 2 finish this year.
As I said no mention of this anywhere now but fairly sure I saw it before.
 
PaisleyClegg said:
Thanks PresentingPercy88 , I couldn't see the available places listed at the top of the market or when I clicked into the rules.

Is it safe to assume that it would be 3 places? Does NRNB invalidate normal antepost rules?
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I have to admit, I no longer back with Sky so its a new one for me and after going through their place only markets, I see no reference to how many placings you are backing for, which I think is poor on their part. Caveat Emptor! If you get an answer, can you let us know?
 
Since the market doesn't say "First 3 places" or similar it can only be one of two things for me.
1. The place terms offered in that race at the time the bet was struck
2. The place terms on the day of the race according to standard practice e.g. 1234 1/4 not 12345 1/5

The Arkle is the only race where this is likely to be troublesome this year.
I'm pretty sure that if less than 8 you will be needing a top 2 finish in this particular market.
 
Wonder if Henderson might move Fusil Raffles here?

Has 3 poss in Marsh and only Shiskin here

Long shot, but v long on exchange of anyone wants a little bet......unlikely but 200-1 and I like a few crazy ones
 
TigerRolllllll said:
Wonder if Henderson might move Fusil Raffles here?

Has 3 poss in Marsh and only Shiskin here

Long shot, but v long on exchange of anyone wants a little bet......unlikely but 200-1 and I like a few crazy ones
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He had Allart who he said had the speed for 2 miles and went on to scratch him, so I'm not sure he wants more than 1 in it?

Smaller field the better probably....
 
Kevloaf said:
He had Allart who he said had the speed for 2 miles and went on to scratch him, so I'm not sure he wants more than 1 in it?

Smaller field the better probably....
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I know his other novice chasers have not had a smooth prep/season.
But Henderson is making himself look small time in the amount of perceived focus he has put on just a small number of horses in his yard.
Not something you see Willie guilty of very often.
KInd of makes me want something to happen to Shishkin.
 
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