2021 Arkle Novices Chase

[Carnage at Taunton]

Wonder if Henderson might move Fusil Raffles here?

Has 3 poss in Marsh and only Shiskin here

Long shot, but v long on exchange of anyone wants a little bet......unlikely but 200-1 and I like a few crazy ones

I be would say he wants CH and FR in the race best suited to them, and SJ will join them if ground is soft/ heavy.
I imagine he knows none of them can beat Shishkin, he may think differently re EA.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Re Allart, I wonder if Hendo will skip Cheltenham and go Aintree with him?

 

[Lobos]

Re Allart, I wonder if Hendo will skip Cheltenham and go Aintree with him?

He didn't sound confident he'd make Cheltenham as he didn't want to go on the back of a fall but running out of time to run again.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

Re Allart, I wonder if Hendo will skip Cheltenham and go Aintree with him?

Possibly, but if that was the plan why take him just out of the Arkle and not the marsh too?

 

[Kevloaf]

Franco De Port ...... at 9/1..... NRNB, without Shishkin......

"I think he’s likely to go for the Arkle. The Cheltenham version of the Arkle is about a furlong-and-a-half shorter than the Irish version, but the race at Cheltenham will probably be run at a very fast pace and while Leopardstown is a huge test, the race at Cheltenham might just suit him. With him there, we’d have one on the front end in Energumene and one held up in him and if they overdid it on the front end, he might be able to pick up the pieces like he did at Christmas."



To me, that sounds very, very much, like this horse will be ridden to place.... he's a general 16/1 show (although WH standout 22/1) ....

On balance, I think that's a fair enough each way bet..... not particularly lucrative, as chances of him winning aren't high and you'd sitll expect Energumene to finish ahead of him I suppose?

Allmankind? Captain Guinness? Blackbow??!

Are there any other runners likely runners?




I have alreayd backed this at 9/1, but it's still the same price now, and Gordon has said Felix Desjy gets a County entry.... I can't see the dangers?



Essentially, he's 4th fav, and going for the race, we know how he'll be ridden and he needs top 4 for a small profit in all liklihood?

Upside is the pace could collapse and him cause a bit of a shock....

Downside, he falls irate:



Thoughts?

 

[opatcho]

Franco De Port ...... at 9/1..... NRNB, without Shishkin......

"I think he’s likely to go for the Arkle. The Cheltenham version of the Arkle is about a furlong-and-a-half shorter than the Irish version, but the race at Cheltenham will probably be run at a very fast pace and while Leopardstown is a huge test, the race at Cheltenham might just suit him. With him there, we’d have one on the front end in Energumene and one held up in him and if they overdid it on the front end, he might be able to pick up the pieces like he did at Christmas."

To me, that sounds very, very much, like this horse will be ridden to place.... he's a general 16/1 show (although WH standout 22/1) ....

On balance, I think that's a fair enough each way bet..... not particularly lucrative, as chances of him winning aren't high and you'd sitll expect Energumene to finish ahead of him I suppose?

Thoughts?

Good decision point.
Agreed, he'll be ridden at the back.. and likley to pick up the pieces
However, this bet would need Energumene to performance poorly or fall. It's the Arkle, so higher chance of jumping errors etc, but this horse jump fences extremely well

I dont have the credits available to side with this sort of bet. But can see the logic, good call.

 

[Olliemagern]

Good decision point.
Agreed, he'll be ridden at the back.. and likley to pick up the pieces
However, this bet would need Energumene to performance poorly or fall. It's the Arkle, so higher chance of jumping errors etc, but this horse jump fences extremely well

I dont have the credits available to side with this sort of bet. But can see the logic, good call.

Energumene ain’t getting his easy lead this time tho so his jumping is going to be put under considerably more pressure than he has before? All man and energ to kill each other and Franco to do a brain power and pick up second up the hill with others stopping

 

[opatcho]

Energumene ain’t getting his easy lead this time tho so his jumping is going to be put under considerably more pressure than he has before? All man and energ to kill each other and Franco to do a brain power and pick up second up the hill with others stopping

Have you backed Franco W/O Shishkin then
Energumene doesnt have to kill himself... allmankind will try and make all but his jumping will prevent him from stretching this field out. I dont see this being a repeat of Footpads race, Townsend aint that stupid. The danger will be from behind, not from the front

 

[Kevloaf]

I think I'm coming at it more from a place of "he can't have 4 stay ahead of him" than I am thinking he can catch and beat Energumene?

I don't think it's likely that Energuemene blows up.... but I can see Franco De port riddewn to pass Allmankind and Captain Guinness after they've tried to win it.... meaning it's a really 'safe' each way bet?

Could only be 6 runners?!

 

[Olliemagern]

Have you backed Franco W/O Shishkin then
Energumene doesnt have to kill himself... allmankind will try and make all but his jumping will prevent him from stretching this field out. I dont see this being a repeat of Footpads race, Townsend aint that stupid. The danger will be from behind, not from the front

Have taken him place only and now without shishkin. Allmankind if he jumps like he did last time out you are correct wont do much damage but his two times before that his jumping was almost his biggest asset. And townend might not want to get sucked in but the horse has never taken a lead in a race over fences? Will the horse be happy to sit in behind and take one?

 

[DenmanSacre]

I wouldn't be too worried about Energumene not having his way up front. He appears to race quite relaxed and just goes his pace. If he was pulling the jockey to be near the front, like Allmankind, then it would be a worry to have another front runner in the race.
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[Milbear0]

For what it’s worth, i’m not sure allmankind would be a strong fav to beat FDP if Shishkin and Energaname weren’t in the race.
I’ve done the W/O ew, wouldn’t touch the general EW play though.

 

[Craigy14]

I think if you have the top 2 for decent enough returns I wouldn’t bother too much about who’s finishing third imo.

Shishkin and Energumene are likely to finish the 1-2 so only a very below par run from either is likely to change that.

It will be a small field so is it even worth bothering to cover the next 3/4 in the betting to try and get third place? If people have already backed others that’s fair enough, but I wouldn’t bother too much now.

 

[Lobos]

I think if you have the top 2 for decent enough returns I wouldn’t bother too much about who’s finishing third imo.

Shishkin and Energumene are likely to finish the 1-2 so only a very below par run from either is likely to change that.

It will be a small field so is it even worth bothering to cover the next 3/4 in the betting to try and get third place? If people have already backed others that’s fair enough, but I wouldn’t bother too much now.

Completely agree. This is my argument with Ew in the graded races. Yes, the top 2 in the market may not turn up or it could go wrong in the race but it's odds against that happening when you have 2 that are so far out in front on paper. Therefore you are wasting your win stake and the Ew stake is for a single place only.

 

[Kevloaf]

I think if you have the top 2 for decent enough returns I wouldn’t bother too much about who’s finishing third imo.

Shishkin and Energumene are likely to finish the 1-2 so only a very below par run from either is likely to change that.

It will be a small field so is it even worth bothering to cover the next 3/4 in the betting to try and get third place? If people have already backed others that’s fair enough, but I wouldn’t bother too much now.

How often do fav and 2nd fav finish 1-2 in proper races?

I'd think if you know it's going to be a small field, all the more reason to look for the "4 places" of the without market, rather than 3, with much less chance of a win?

 

[Craigy14]

How often do fav and 2nd fav finish 1-2 in proper races?

I'd think if you know it's going to be a small field, all the more reason to look for the "4 places" of the without market, rather than 3, with much less chance of a win?

Aye I get that, I just mean the front 2 look that solid I don’t see any of the others getting close.

So to spend points here and there to pick up place money, is it worth it? Backing for third or even w/o shishkin e/w on 2/3 horses how much is anyone likely to make given what we know of the front 2.

As I said if people are already on then totally understand the e/w, myself I’ve played e/w on bigger prices this year compared to not at all last year.

 

[Kevloaf]

So to spend points here and there to pick up place money, is it worth it? Backing for third or even w/o shishkin e/w on 2/3 horses how much is anyone likely to make given what we know of the front 2.

.

I dunno, too much time on my hands.
:highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

5 pages back to find the Arkle thread, crickey.

Just reading Hendo's ATR stable tour, thought this blue bit was a little bit, meh.....



"It's amazing how this race has gone from three or four weeks ago where Shishkin was odds on and everybody said it was going to be boring and suddenly Willie has come along with Energumene. I think Allmankind was again impressive at Warwick and there is a real fight on, and people are seeing it as one of the clashes of the week. I thought that Dublin Racing Festival was a great view unless you are sat in my seat and every race you watched something came out and you thought ‘oh no look at this’. Altior didn't have to watch Chacun Pour Soi, Epatante didn't have to watch Honeysuckle and Shishkin didn't have to watch Energumene. People ask why don't we go but we just can't have away games before Cheltenham. The timing wasn't right, and we will see if we can get our own back at Punchestown.Going back over my past winners of the Arkle, Remittance Man was a spectacular jumper and I think that Sprinter Sacre was probably the most flamboyant of them all, Altior was pretty deadly and this fellow has just been very good. Simonsig had won the two and a half mile novice hurdle and we came back in distance for the Arkle. Altior did win the Supreme and Shishkin's performance last year was pretty good as he did get taken into the car park at the second last. To get back up and win was a pretty solid performance. He probably hasn't had a lot of opposition over fences, but he has been very clinical and very accurate and he's done it very well every time. He comes in with ten ticks on all three occasions even though he didn't have to beat anything sensational and we can only hope. He is in good form, has shown that he is class and has had a good run in. He has couple of bits of work to do this weekend and next and I he will have another school but he is a pretty clean winded horse and doesn't take a whole heap of work. Everything is on fairly well on course at the moment."




"has just been very good".... :indecisiveness:


Probably reading too much into it, but it doesn't strike me as bullish, especially when reading some of his other exerts about other horses....

 

[Quevega]

5 pages back to find the Arkle thread, crickey.

Just reading Hendo's ATR stable tour, thought this blue bit was a little bit, meh.....



"It's amazing how this race has gone from three or four weeks ago where Shishkin was odds on and everybody said it was going to be boring and suddenly Willie has come along with Energumene. I think Allmankind was again impressive at Warwick and there is a real fight on, and people are seeing it as one of the clashes of the week. I thought that Dublin Racing Festival was a great view unless you are sat in my seat and every race you watched something came out and you thought ‘oh no look at this’. Altior didn't have to watch Chacun Pour Soi, Epatante didn't have to watch Honeysuckle and Shishkin didn't have to watch Energumene. People ask why don't we go but we just can't have away games before Cheltenham. The timing wasn't right, and we will see if we can get our own back at Punchestown.Going back over my past winners of the Arkle, Remittance Man was a spectacular jumper and I think that Sprinter Sacre was probably the most flamboyant of them all, Altior was pretty deadly and this fellow has just been very good. Simonsig had won the two and a half mile novice hurdle and we came back in distance for the Arkle. Altior did win the Supreme and Shishkin's performance last year was pretty good as he did get taken into the car park at the second last. To get back up and win was a pretty solid performance. He probably hasn't had a lot of opposition over fences, but he has been very clinical and very accurate and he's done it very well every time. He comes in with ten ticks on all three occasions even though he didn't have to beat anything sensational and we can only hope. He is in good form, has shown that he is class and has had a good run in. He has couple of bits of work to do this weekend and next and I he will have another school but he is a pretty clean winded horse and doesn't take a whole heap of work. Everything is on fairly well on course at the moment."




"has just been very good".... :indecisiveness:


Probably reading too much into it, but it doesn't strike me as bullish, especially when reading some of his other exerts about other horses....

Probably a good thing.
Wouldn't want him to talk it up too much.
Can't recall him talking up altior for the supreme.
He did for the arkle but he had no challenger. Neither did Sprinter.

 

[Vautour]

I wouldnt read too much into it. Remember at the start of the season he said he’d only seen two other horses like him on the gallops