• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Ultima Handicap Chase 2020

One thing to note if Vinndication does go here is the effect it will have on the weights. Some of those in the 140s will get in off lovely weights. And it may even persuade them to send OK Corral here as he wouldn't be lumbered with quite as much as you might ordinarily expect off 155.

Mind you, if Beware The Bear goes for this again then Vinndication won't even be top weight..! 160 :concern:
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Completely agree Q....not stopping the gamble, backed into 12s from 25s today with PP
Click to expand...

Mad money.
The backers will be well pissed off when the trainer pulls it out cos the grass isn't the right length:devilish:

Simply cannot have this horse being well in and not entering for Ryanair and Gold cup. Mental.

probably win now.
 
Scooby91 said:
155. Atleast he dosent get a top up. Should he line up.
Click to expand...

Not ideal but i'd still like him even off that mark, though it does sound unlikely for a run.
Lake View Lad 3rd, beaten just 3 lengths off 155 last season.
UTPT (155) winning and Noble Endeavour (154) 3rd in 2017.
Plenty more placed off marks above 150.
It's no barrier unless there's something chucked in at the weights. (Vinndication :devilish::highly_amused:)
Though it does sound unlikely for a run.
 
jono said:
Not ideal but i'd still like him even off that mark, though it does sound unlikely for a run.
Lake View Lad 3rd, beaten just 3 lengths off 155 last season.
UTPT (155) winning and Noble Endeavour (154) 3rd in 2017.
Plenty more placed off marks above 150.
It's no barrier unless there's something chucked in at the weights. (Vinndication :devilish::highly_amused:)
Though it does sound unlikely for a run.
Click to expand...

At there are some positives.


Pretty annoying horse overall. We all thought we had the game by the balls before he flopped in the NH Chase last year...

Anticipate a drop in the weights to get into the Kim Muir and romps home when nobody expects it...

Misses Chelt.

We all back him for Aintree....

Falls at the first.
 
What's the ceiling for this?

Looking back looks as though it is 155, but there is money around today for Vinndication, but he's 159, can he get in on his current mark?
 
ComplyOrDie said:
What's the ceiling for this?

Looking back looks as though it is 155, but there is money around today for Vinndication, but he's 159, can he get in on his current mark?
Click to expand...

There isn't one is there ?
 
quevega said:
There isn't one is there ?
Click to expand...

Amazing. Just looking back at past two or three results and nothing above 155, so made me think that was it.

I assume they just head to the graded races if any higher, otherwise it would be a big burden in a big field handicap.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Amazing. Just looking back at past two or three results and nothing above 155, so made me think that was it.

I assume they just head to the graded races if any higher, otherwise it would be a big burden in a big field handicap.
Click to expand...

Don't think there's a ceiling on most of them cod. Just the Pipe and close, not 100% though

edit - and winter/boodles I think
 
I’d love Vinddication to run in the Ultima. Credibility and progress aside I backed him TWAR without considering his limit options at the Festival and his dislike of undulating left handed tracks. So even under top weight this would be his best chance instead of a graded race.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Cheers 'Q'
Click to expand...

Only four of the ten handicaps have ratings ceilings, the rest are open.

Open - No ceiling
Coral Cup Hurdle 2M5F Hurdle
Pertemps Final Hurdle 3M Hurdle
County Hurdle 2M Hurdle
Ultima Chase 3M Chase
Grand Annual 2M Chase
Plate 2M5F Chase
Symmetry to the Chase Hurdle trips and open handicaps


Closed - Maximum ratings.
Boodles Hurdle - 140 (as they are juvenile ratings)
Kim Muir Chase - 145
Close Brothers Chase - 145
Martin Pipe Hurdle - 145
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Only four of the ten handicaps have ratings ceilings, the rest are open.

Open - No ceiling
Coral Cup Hurdle 2M5F Hurdle
Pertemps Final Hurdle 3M Hurdle
County Hurdle 2M Hurdle
Ultima Chase 3M Chase
Grand Annual 2M Chase
Plate 2M5F Chase
Symmetry to the Chase Hurdle trips and open handicaps


Closed - Maximum ratings.
Boodles Hurdle - 140 (as they are juvenile ratings)
Kim Muir Chase - 145
Close Brothers Chase - 145
Martin Pipe Hurdle - 145
Click to expand...

Fantastic, thanks SW :encouragement:
 
ComplyOrDie said:
What's the ceiling for this?

Looking back looks as though it is 155, but there is money around today for Vinndication, but he's 159, can he get in on his current mark?
Click to expand...



The money is probably because kim bailey confirmed the target yesterday. I'm likely going to back him in a min myself.
I know he's 159 and will carry 11st 12.

However I dont really believe in the handicap system, when you've got the likes of frodon carrying monster burdens to victory against inferior opposition. And the irish get taxed anyway.

I was considering any second now. Off 150 but by the time he gets taxed 2 pounds or so. How's he going to give a far superior horse in vinndication a beating, when hes considerably inferior, and receives just a few pounds.

When you weigh 500kg plus and are just plain better, what's a few pounds.
 
Scooby91 said:
The money is probably because kim bailey confirmed the target yesterday. I'm likely going to back him in a min myself.
I know he's 159 and will carry 11st 12.

However I dont really believe in the handicap system, when you've got the likes of frodon carrying monster burdens to victory against inferior opposition. And the irish get taxed anyway.

I was considering any second now. Off 150 but by the time he gets taxed 2 pounds or so. How's he going to give a far superior horse in vinndication a beating, when hes considerably inferior, and receives just a few pounds.

When you weigh 500kg plus and are just plain better, what's a few pounds.
Click to expand...

I kind of see what you're trying to say here. And class can often overcome a weight disadvantage.
But it's also going against years and years of historical evidence, with regards how much weight makes a difference.

Backing a horse like vinndication off that mark is relying on him at least running up to his best or improving.
And the rest of the field all running below or according to their mark.

Mad decision as already stated (to run here)
one of the worst I've ever seen in fact.
 
Scooby91 said:
The money is probably because kim bailey confirmed the target yesterday. I'm likely going to back him in a min myself.
I know he's 159 and will carry 11st 12.

However I dont really believe in the handicap system, when you've got the likes of frodon carrying monster burdens to victory against inferior opposition. And the irish get taxed anyway.

I was considering any second now. Off 150 but by the time he gets taxed 2 pounds or so. How's he going to give a far superior horse in vinndication a beating, when hes considerably inferior, and receives just a few pounds.

When you weigh 500kg plus and are just plain better, what's a few pounds.
Click to expand...

Agreed Scooby. Of those at the top of the market I can't see any of them beating Vinndication. I've backed him.
 
I've added to my 14/1 on The Conditional in this with Any Second Now after his good run yesterday. He spent his novice season chasing around Monalee, Footpad and Invitation Only, primarily over trips short of his best, before going off fav for the Close Bros when disappointing. He then looked to benefit from the step up in trip as a 2nd season novice finishing 5th in the Paddy Power over Christmas before winning the Kim Muir off almost top weight. He's obviously gone up a fair few lbs for that (150 in Ireland) but was running well in the Paddy Power again this season before being brought down 4 out and has followed that up with an eye catching 3rd at the weekend over a short enough trip. He still looks very competitive off his higher mark.
​
It's well documented that a high rating isn't a barrier to success in this race and he's earned that rating with a series of runs that suggest he's actually a pretty good horse with scope still to show more over this trip.​
​
Record in 3m+ handicaps:​
- 5th of 27 in 2018 Paddy Power​
- 1st of 23 in 2019 Kim Muir​
- Fell 2019 Irish National when sent off as JPs first string​
- UR (effectively BD) of 27 when travelling well in 2019 Paddy Power

Other 3m efforts show a 4l 3rd to Chris's Dream and Champagne Classic and a 5L 2nd to Battleoverdoyen (just shy of 3m). He's definitely got some class.

My only reservation is that the National might well be the main target this year but, as a 2019 Festival winner, I'd like to think they'd want to bring him back. And with the way he's already run in a couple of competitive handicaps this year there's no reason to think he's being tenderly campaigned. Besides, weights for the Nash will already be out.

After the run at the weekend PP/BF immediately went 14s but you can still get 25s with Hills and I'm happy to take it.
 
I've had this window open for about the last hour putting my case together only for me to click 'post' and realise the forum is already talking about him :highly_amused:
 
Viking Flagship said:
I've added to my 14/1 on The Conditional in this with Any Second Now after his good run yesterday. He spent his novice season chasing around Monalee, Footpad and Invitation Only, primarily over trips short of his best, before going off fav for the Close Bros when disappointing. He then looked to benefit from the step up in trip as a 2nd season novice finishing 5th in the Paddy Power over Christmas before winning the Kim Muir off almost top weight. He's obviously gone up a fair few lbs for that (150 in Ireland) but was running well in the Paddy Power again this season before being brought down 4 out and has followed that up with an eye catching 3rd at the weekend over a short enough trip. He still looks very competitive off his higher mark.
​
It's well documented that a high rating isn't a barrier to success in this race and he's earned that rating with a series of runs that suggest he's actually a pretty good horse with scope still to show more over this trip.​
​
Record in 3m+ handicaps:​
- 5th of 27 in 2018 Paddy Power​
- 1st of 23 in 2019 Kim Muir​
- Fell 2019 Irish National when sent off as JPs first string​
- UR (effectively BD) of 27 when travelling well in 2019 Paddy Power

Other 3m efforts show a 4l 3rd to Chris's Dream and Champagne Classic and a 5L 2nd to Battleoverdoyen (just shy of 3m). He's definitely got some class.

My only reservation is that the National might well be the main target this year but, as a 2019 Festival winner, I'd like to think they'd want to bring him back. And with the way he's already run in a couple of competitive handicaps this year there's no reason to think he's being tenderly campaigned. Besides, weights for the Nash will already be out.

After the run at the weekend PP/BF immediately went 14s but you can still get 25s with Hills and I'm happy to take it.
Click to expand...

He'd be in with a shout I'd reckon.
I think it's definitely an advantage in this race to have good course experience, preferably in the race itself or at least over course and distance, and obviously be a proven stayer.

The Conditional looks to have a very solid chance, and if horses like Vinndication and other 155+ horses run, then he's going to feel like he's not got a jockey on. It does hand an advantage to the lower weights, who would be used to carrying 11 stone plus most days.
Just got to take advantage of it on the day.

A lot of the ones I've looked at have gone up so much in the weights it's hard to fancy them strongly, but if they ran, you kind of know they'd still probably run well (which is kind of what scooby's saying about Vinndication, although he lacks the experience).

Some interesting likely runners, or previous course and distance types.

Cogry - 144 (highest mark at age 11)
Vintage Clouds - 154 (144 last year)
Beware the Bear - 160 (151 last year)
Lake View Lad - 154 (155 last year)
Flying Angel - 144 (142 last year)
Rock The Kasbah - 150
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom