Ultima Handicap Chase 2020

[Kevloaf]

I use trends as a guide, not a rule.

Reminder that Gaultstats has all Cheltenham trends, the site is a great read and is done entirely voluntarily though the owner/writer does suggest a charity donation.
Great read...

Yeh it’s an excellent place for stats and trends

Absolutely.

Hopefully he'll be back soon and we can sticky the thread.... what's his twitter actually?

 

[TCH29]

I think The Conditional is absolutely perfect for this, but I agree Copperhead looks class too.

Then I see how delicately Ex-Patriot was handled today and wonder whether he could be routed here?

I think this will be a very high quality Ultima.

I also still think Yorkhill is coming here too, and a clean round...?

Good race. Lots of value. Have 3 of the above 4 covered...but not EX-P.

 

[TCH29]

For those more knowledgeable and better informed, why does no one have Ex-P priced up for the Ultima?

 

[Stormez]

For those more knowledgeable and better informed, why does no one have Ex-P priced up for the Ultima?

Plate would be more likely wouldn’t it? 20/1 for that

 

[TCH29]

Out of interest, why? 3 miles looked alright for him and a generous mark?

 

[Kevloaf]

For those more knowledgeable and better informed, why does no one have Ex-P priced up for the Ultima?

Probably just as simple as him being under the radar?


Only tried 3m once before today and that was a 33L defeat behind Agrapart in Heavy at Cheltenham...


Weakened today over 3m too?



27 races in today, only 2 at 3 miles - one soundly beaten and the other looking like he may not have stayed?




Doesn't mean he can't run in it, but probably overlooked in terms of people rushing to back him




It's perhaps more likely he ran over 3m today to lower his mark, and when he gets back over a more suitable trip he's going to be better handicapped

 

[TCH29]

Fair enough. Felt like he was given a deliberately soft ride rather than didn’t stay. But that may well have been part of the mark managing plan for the Pipe...just seemed odd he’s not priced up.

 

[robith]

Absolutely.

Hopefully he'll be back soon and we can sticky the thread.... what's his twitter actually?

He's said it will all be updated by Feb 14th.

It's an absolutely phenomenal resource and well worth a donation. As others has said I don't use trends as a ride or die rule, but they're great for giving a picture of the characteristics of the type of horse that wins that race

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Absolutely.

Hopefully he'll be back soon and we can sticky the thread.... what's his twitter actually?

@gaultstats

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

As mentioned on the handicap thread been told they are hoping to aim Vinndication here despite his rating of 159 as connections think he is ‘well in’. They also like a bet and see he has been slashed from 20/1 to 10/1 with Bet365. Sloppy really as if you want a proper plunge best to wait for all bookies to price the horse up at a biggish price.

Two of the last 3 have won with ratings in the 150s (highest 153) after 20 odd years with it never happening. Relatively unexposed still at 3 miles does anyone give him a chance in this?

 

[Quevega]

As mentioned on the handicap thread been told they are hoping to aim Vinndication here despite his rating of 159 as connections think he is ‘well in’. They also like a bet and see he has been slashed from 20/1 to 10/1 with Bet365. Sloppy really as if you want a proper plunge best to wait for all bookies to price the horse up at a biggish price.

Two of the last 3 have won with ratings in the 150s (highest 153) after 20 odd years with it never happening. Relatively unexposed still at 3 miles does anyone give him a chance in this?

Well in off 159 and not running in Gold Cup means they're f**king stupid :stupid:

 

[Eggs]

....Kildisart given a mention for this in today’s Racing Post.

 

[TCH29]

Well in off 159 and not running in Gold Cup means they're f**king stupid :stupid:

Agree. But surely he’s a Ryanair horse? A testing 2m5f up hill would surely suit him perfectly.

 

[Stormez]

Definitely up there with Waiting Patiently & Vision Des Flos in terms of worst campaigned horses of the last couple of seasons

 

[Scooby91]

Not sure what ok corral will go up. But he could have wonthat alot further if derek wanted to, he pulled him back the whole way round.

 

[jono]

Not sure what ok corral will go up. But he could have wonthat alot further if derek wanted to, he pulled him back the whole way round.

Would be of huge interest for me here if he gets in and around 152-153 AND importantly they keep the jockey booking intact. Which you'd surely assume they would? Agree though he had plenty there

 

[Scooby91]

Would be of huge interest for me here if he gets in and around 152-153 AND importantly they keep the jockey booking intact. Which you'd surely assume they would? Agree though he had plenty there

I wanted him to be a plot but actually excited about his chances here. No reason he wont be that mark. And I really like his chances.

I dont mind which jockey
As I believe previously they were under orders to get his mark down. he travelled so well today. That he couldn't possibly stop him winning.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I thought I read on RP site that the connections think that Aintree and its flat track would suit OK Corral better than Cheltenham. If anyone is thinking he may come here, check the quotes first, before you decide to bet at Cheltenham, :encouragement:

 

[jono]

I thought I read on RP site that the connections think that Aintree and its flat track would suit OK Corral better than Cheltenham. If anyone is thinking he may come here, check the quotes first, before you decide to bet at Cheltenham, :encouragement:

Yep, these are the quotes i've seen SW. It doesn't specifically rule out Cheltenham. And I don't think DoC will have much sway or decision making (now at least!) on where the horse will end up but does mention Aintree himself. Could be hard to bypass the festival when he looks to be right back to form, having won when it appeared like he had plenty in hand and being a festival runner up already.

O'Connor said: ..."He loves a fast, speedy track like Warwick and Doncaster and he could be an Aintree horse possibly.

"I've ridden here just the once before in a bumper, but I work for Goffs UK and I spend a lot of time on the track. I've jogged round more times than a lot of horses have raced here.

"I was lucky enough to ride this horse in Warwick. I got the call up again. There are no future plans, it's just that I got on so well with him last year, thankfully I got the ride back on him today.

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

What about Ramses De Teillee for this? Was yesterday’s trip over hurdles a means of not impacting his Chase rating? He always runs a solid race but I think he’s pretty exposed already. What are your thoughts?