Ultima Handicap Chase 2020

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I mentioned a few weeks back that I was told Vinndication was coming here and as much as I like the horse I just couldn’t get to grips with the enthusiasm of connections. Fair play they have crashed his price this last couple of weeks and even I had to get involved today at 15/1 with Hills. I am as certain as you can be he will be heading for this race if fit. Certainly interesting to hear Scooby’s positive take as it very much mirrors the messages I’ve been getting. I personally remain sceptical

 

[Pendil]

Deise Aba for me in this WH @ 25/1. Hope they don't go Kim Muir

 

[YoungHustler]

I also really like Vinndication but put off by the weight. I haven't given up on Kildisart who had similar form to Vinndication last year but will be 8lbs better off and is at a much bigger price due to his lack of form this year but I think this has been due to the trainers form and running on heavy the last twice. Also, really like Any Second Now so glad others on here think the same.

 

[SamuelP]

I also really like Vinndication but put off by the weight. I haven't given up on Kildisart who had similar form to Vinndication last year but will be 8lbs better off and is at a much bigger price due to his lack of form this year but I think this has been due to the trainers form and running on heavy the last twice. Also, really like Any Second Now so glad others on here think the same.

Just about to post about Kildisart. Like you say he'll be 8lbs better off than Vinndication, form at Cheltenham reads 41 (4 being last year's JLT), and his form on anything with the term good in the going reads 141221 (has also won twice on soft).
Now at the start of the season Ben Pauling seemed excited about the horse - 'He is in that bracket at the moment where he’s top end of handicaps or he’s maybe going to be slightly under where you need to be to win level-weights races.

“But I think he’s certainly a horse on the improve – I think we’ve got a lot left to come.”

Indeed he pitched him in a listed race and was beaten back in third by Lostintranslation and then has raced twice on heavy which I don't think will have suited. He's dropped 5lbs through the season and personally think he could have a bit in hand on that mark and should improve for Spring ground. Pauling has said that in and around 3 miles is his trip and he seemed to finish strongly in last years JLT and at Aintree. 33/1with B365 and WH, only 20s with PP and BF.

 

[Eggs]

Just about to post about Kildisart. Like you say he'll be 8lbs better off than Vinndication, form at Cheltenham reads 41 (4 being last year's JLT), and his form on anything with the term good in the going reads 141221 (has also won twice on soft).
Now at the start of the season Ben Pauling seemed excited about the horse - 'He is in that bracket at the moment where he’s top end of handicaps or he’s maybe going to be slightly under where you need to be to win level-weights races.

“But I think he’s certainly a horse on the improve – I think we’ve got a lot left to come.”

Indeed he pitched him in a listed race and was beaten back in third by Lostintranslation and then has raced twice on heavy which I don't think will have suited. He's dropped 5lbs through the season and personally think he could have a bit in hand on that mark and should improve for Spring ground. Pauling has said that in and around 3 miles is his trip and he seemed to finish strongly in last years JLT and at Aintree. 33/1with B365 and WH, only 20s with PP and BF.

...I mentioned Kildisart in this thread quite a few pages back. It actually got a favourable mention for this in the RP a number of weeks ago.

 

[SamuelP]

...I mentioned Kildisart in this thread quite a few pages back. It actually got a favourable mention for this in the RP a number of weeks ago.

That's good. I thought I had read somewhere somebody talking favourably about him.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

...I mentioned Kildisart in this thread quite a few pages back. It actually got a favourable mention for this in the RP a number of weeks ago.

Now Ben Pauling looks in form, it’s a good shout.

 

[Birds Nest]

01-21-2020, 09:19 PM#941
Birds Nest Birds Nest is online now
Fat Jockey (ridden out claim)
Birds Nest's AvatarJoin Date
Feb 2018
Posts
155
Im with kildisart for the ultima, just missed the cut last year for the close brothers after getting hiked to 147 following his chelt novice chase win back in jan, forced into going jlt and ran respectable 4th, Pauling said he would not be revisiting 21/2m after his 3m aintree win, qouted as saying his future is as a 3m , dropped to 151 after the bet 365 last weekend and is now on a mark to take a good hand in this..

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Is Any Second Now well handicapped off 150? Presumably he will get a few pounds extra as a previous festival Winner too so Id guess he will be running off something like 153. Won a pretty average Kim Muir off 143 and its a fairly big hike in what will surely be a better race than that.

If Early Doors takes up his entry over an inadequate trip this weekend he could well do enough to get a mark in the high 140's and look good for this. He's another who will no doubt be given a decent hike as a previous winner mind you. But Id much prefer him to Any Second Now off a a similar mark.

 

[The King Pimm]

I think the British horses will win the Ultima again this year, a race they always do well in, the British have won the last 10 years and there’s only been I think 5 Irish based horses placed during this period. If Vinddication, The Conditional, Copperhead and Beware The Bear turn up they will carve the race up amongst them and a winner is from these 4 IMHBEO.

 

[Viking Flagship]

Is Any Second Now well handicapped off 150? Presumably he will get a few pounds extra as a previous festival Winner too so Id guess he will be running off something like 153. Won a pretty average Kim Muir off 143 and its a fairly big hike in what will surely be a better race than that.

If Early Doors takes up his entry over an inadequate trip this weekend he could well do enough to get a mark in the high 140's and look good for this. He's another who will no doubt be given a decent hike as a previous winner mind you. But Id much prefer him to Any Second Now off a a similar mark.

I don't think he's obviously well handicapped but then I don't think anyone thought Beware The Bear or UTPT was either. I think there is a case (see post #78) that he's still relatively unexposed in these kinds of races and he's shown twice already this season that he can get competitive off his revised Irish mark. Whilst the Kim Muir may not have been the highest quality of races I don't think there's any doubting that he's got a bit of class, as shown by a series of good runs off levels against some of the best novices of the past couple of years. What the KM performance did was prove that he was comfortable in a big competitive field at Cheltenham, which is a big tick to have. I don't think for one minute he's an absolute snip, and I'm not super bullish, but he's 25/1 and is one I'd be confident would run his race on the day in a field that tends not to be all that inspiring.

 

[BigChaang]

Kimberlite candy straight to G.N - racing t.v today.

 

[Scooby91]

Bailey's festival team is set to be boosted by the returning*Vinndication, who is on course for the Ultima Handicap Chase after coming through a crucial workout on Saturday morning.



Vinndication: an intriguing Ultima contender for Kim Bailey


The highly-regarded Grade 2 winner has been absent since landing the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot in November by five lengths from subsequent scorer Regal Encore.*

"He got a bone bruise [before Christmas] but seems fine," said Bailey. "He did his first piece of work this morning and we were very happy with it. He'll go straight to Cheltenham for the Ultima."**

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Bailey's festival team is set to be boosted by the returning*Vinndication, who is on course for the Ultima Handicap Chase after coming through a crucial workout on Saturday morning.



Vinndication: an intriguing Ultima contender for Kim Bailey


The highly-regarded Grade 2 winner has been absent since landing the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot in November by five lengths from subsequent scorer Regal Encore.*

"He got a bone bruise [before Christmas] but seems fine," said Bailey. "He did his first piece of work this morning and we were very happy with it. He'll go straight to Cheltenham for the Ultima."**

It’s rare that the Ultima is won by an improving unexposed type but I have to admit that now his target is set, I quite fancy him here. Copperhead too (unlikely to turn up that one though).

Stepped up in trip at ascot, Vindication seemed to relish the trip and jumped and galloped them into submission. Could he do that in a big field Ultima is the question? At the price he’ll be, its probably worth chancing that he could.

 

[Kevloaf]

The jockey would be the issue for this race.
He's actually left him in the Gold cup, which I'm going to use to relate that (in a really random fashion) to Vinndication again.
Gold cup looking like being a 12/14 runner race I reckon.
One rated 140 and one rated 159.
If Vinndication wins the Ultima and you owned it. :mad-new:

I'd be buzzing, knowing I had no chance of winning this Gold Cup off 159 or mid 160's (whatever he'd get put up to).

Way too many good horses in the Gold CUp that'll run over 165.

 

[Quevega]

I'd be buzzing, knowing I had no chance of winning this Gold Cup off 159 or mid 160's (whatever he'd get put up to).

Way too many good horses in the Gold CUp that'll run over 165.

He's 7 as well :mad-new:

 

[Quevega]

A 7 year old second season chaser rated 159 after one run in open handicap company.
And they run it in the fucking Ultima against 23 other handicappers.
It's really annoyed me.:highly_amused:

It's worth looking back at horses with this profile and how well they run in the Gold cup Kevin.
No chance is a little short sighted.

 

[Kevloaf]

A 7 year old second season chaser rated 159 after one run in open handicap company.
And they run it in the fucking Ultima against 23 other handicappers.
It's really annoyed me.:highly_amused:

It's worth looking back at horses with this profile and how well they run in the Gold cup Kevin.
No chance is a little short sighted.

If you think he's good enough to win a Gold Cup you should back him for this.

I don't get what bit is annoying you so much.



You don't even fancy him in this [Ultima], so what the fudge are you moaning on and on about :highly_amused:

 

[Quevega]

If you think he's good enough to win a Gold Cup you should back him for this.

I don't get what bit is annoying you so much.



You don't even fancy him in this [Ultima], so what the fudge are you moaning on and on about :highly_amused:

Don't know,
Just find it incredibly annoying.:highly_amused:
I'd have backed him for Gold cup but not this.

 

[Kevloaf]

Don't know,
Just find it incredibly annoying.:highly_amused:
I'd have backed him for Gold cup but not this.

:stupid:

If I thought a horse was good enough to win a Gold Cup, I would 100% back them in a handicap with top weight.


There isn't a scenario I can think of where I wouldn't.

Don't make me change your avatar again