Triumph Hurdle 2020

[ComplyOrDie]

I misread thought it was generalised on an early season short one.
Sussex ranger will do then.

That's better

Though I have it on very good understanding that Goshen is way ahead of where Sussex Ranger was, although he'd have to be, given SR's performance at the festival :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

1/3 or not, he's super quick, that middle of the race burst puts them to bed pretty quickly

 

[darlojim]

Impressive but would want to see him next on better ground and against decent horses before I get involved with him. Can't help but feel there will be a good few better than him come Cheltenham

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Impressive but would want to see him next on better ground and against decent horses before I get involved with him. Can't help but feel there will be a good few better than him come Cheltenham

Of course, but put JP's colours on him and Hendo or WPM training and he's your 7/2 - 4/1 jolly right now. Still fair @ 10's because of connections.

 

[Humble Pie]

Impressive but would want to see him next on better ground and against decent horses before I get involved with him. Can't help but feel there will be a good few better than him come Cheltenham

Agreed
Just to reiterate what most are thinking and saying “ ante post “ prices are crazy

We should have a thread that puts up “ worse value favourites!”

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Agreed
Just to reiterate what most are thinking and saying “ ante post “ prices are crazy

We should have a thread that puts up “ worse value favourites!”

What do you think should be favourite for the Triumph, based on what we have seen then?

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Could do more than he did, but quotes of 6/1 and 7/1 in places must be the worst antepost bets of all time!

 

[Morley Street]

Very pleased with that, much better jumping performance and as you say CoD that burst of speed is a weapon. On all known evidence I think he’s price is fair and he’s rightfully at the head of the market.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Could do more than he did, but quotes of 6/1 and 7/1 in places must be the worst antepost bets of all time!

When Micro Manage is 14's (best price) having not been seen over hurdles and the last we heard he had a minor fracture, but 10's about a horse who has just demolished a field under a penalty is the worst price of all time? OK

What you need to do is not pick the lowest price possible to build your opinion, just because it's there.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

When Micro Manage is 14's (best price) having not been seen over hurdles and the last we heard he had a minor fracture, but 10's about a horse who has just demolished a field under a penalty is the worst price of all time? OK

What you need to do is not pick the lowest price possible to build your opinion, just because it's there.

Why can't I pick valid prices that are there?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Why can't I pick valid prices that are there?

Guess you didn't want to answer the rest of the post then!

It's a weak argument using the worst price IMO, but you carry on.

FWIW, he may need soft ground and right handed, as Jamie Moore has just said, but I stand by what I believe, that his performances relate to his current price, on what we've seen from the rest of the market.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Guess you didn't want to answer the rest of the post then!

It's a weak argument using the worst price IMO, but you carry on.

FWIW, he may need soft ground and right handed, as Jamie Moore has just said, but I stand by what I believe, that his performances relate to his current price, on what we've seen from the rest of the market.

Why is it a weak argument? I cant bet with any of the firms offering 10/1 so its perfectly valid for me.

Whatever way you look at it, the form is far from solid. I dont think its even as good as the O'Brien juveniles the other day myself. Its the Triumph hurdle, probably the toughest race to know who you are even going to be running against.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

When Micro Manage is 14's (best price) having not been seen over hurdles and the last we heard he had a minor fracture, but 10's about a horse who has just demolished a field under a penalty is the worst price of all time? OK

What you need to do is not pick the lowest price possible to build your opinion, just because it's there.

Its also a weak argument to use a poor price to justify another price. Quite clearly 14/1 about Micro Manage is terrible as well.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Why is it a weak argument? I cant bet with any of the firms offering 10/1 so its perfectly valid for me.

Whatever way you look at it, the form is far from solid. I dont think its even as good as the O'Brien juveniles the other day myself. Its the Triumph hurdle, probably the toughest race to know who you are even going to be running against.

I fully expect plenty more to come out, and I'm in no way saying Goshen is going to win the Triumph, but he's still an E/W price for many, after two extremely solid performances, I'm not sure what you was expecting, being 14's prior to the off, having won his hurdles debut in similar fashion.

At the end of the day you pay your money and take your chance on the price that is offered, if not don't, the continuation of bitching about ante post prices, come on, it's been like this for a good few seasons now.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I fully expect plenty more to come out, and I'm in no way saying Goshen is going to win the Triumph, but he's still an E/W price for many, after two extremely solid performances, I'm not sure what you was expecting, being 14's prior to the off, having won his hurdles debut in similar fashion.

At the end of the day you pay your money and take your chance on the price that is offered, if not don't, the continuation of bitching about ante post prices, come on, it's been like this for a good few seasons now.

Its got nothing to do with what I was expecting. Its easy for the bookies to shorten to a silly price after a performance like that. With all due respect, you are the one who has called me out here and had a pop because I think he's a terrible price. Its just my opinion, and I think Im perfectly entitled to it.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Its got nothing to do with what I was expecting. Its easy for the bookies to shorten to a silly price after a performance like that. With all due respect, you are the one who has called me out here and had a pop because I think he's a terrible price. Its just my opinion, and I think Im perfectly entitled to it.

Well you did say he must be the worst price of the all time! Bit OTT wasn't it? Or do you genuinely believe that when you think of other prices and horses?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Its also a weak argument to use a poor price to justify another price. Quite clearly 14/1 about Micro Manage is terrible as well.

Not sure what else you can judge a price against, other than the horses that are in the market against it, after all they are the ones we are trying to beat

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Well you did say he must be the worst price of the all time! Bit OTT wasn't it? Or do you genuinely believe that when you think of other prices and horses?

I meant to put 'one of the' worst antepost bets of all time. I still think he is tbh.

Of all the Cheltenham races in the current antepost lists, I'd say the Triumph is easily the toughest. For a horse to be single figure prices already, you'd surely want a much higher level of form in the book than Goshen has wouldn't you? Or an idea of who he will even be running against?

Anyway, I really don't want to get into an argument. Good luck with your bets and genuinely hope he wins for you.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I meant to put 'one of the' worst antepost bets of all time. I still think he is tbh.

Of all the Cheltenham races in the current antepost lists, I'd say the Triumph is easily the toughest. For a horse to be single figure prices already, you'd surely want a much higher level of form in the book than Goshen has wouldn't you? Or an idea of who he will even be running against?

Anyway, I really don't want to get into an argument. Good luck with your bets and genuinely hope he wins for you.

Fair enough CCM, I'm sure out paths will cross again at some point, hopefully in agreement next time :highly_amused:

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Goshen has a pronounced rounded action and the jockey confirmed soft ground as a preference. If the ground is soft at Cheltenham’s Trial Day at the end of January he could be interesting if he straightens up hi hurdling when going left handed.

For me as he has run down the hurdles to the right when running left handed, and ran straight when going right-handed, so I wouldn’t be looking at him for the Triumph.