• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

The four favourites that you're dead against

delsie777

delsie777

Member
Joined
Mar 8, 2018
Messages
676
Reaction score
31
Points
28
Location
Devon & Dublin
We all know that racing is the ultimate game of opinions. Many on here have strong feelings not just about horses they fancy but also those that they just cannot have on their minds. So let's have the four favs that you can't entertain and a short explanation. I suggest we just state our case rather than get into slagging other people's opinions


For me?


Apples Jade (Champion Hurdle) - my reasons are well documented but, in a nutshell, jumps right, couldn't win a Mares race, susceptible to the call of nature and near the top of the market after beating Supersundae over an inadequate trip.


Defi Du Seuil (JLT) - will surely be outstayed up the hill over this trip but not fluent enough for a flat out 2 miles.

Champ (Ballymore) - Has to be a fear that he will fail to settle sufficiently for this test. Could pull too hard to see it out and holes starting to appear in his formlines. Has been elevated to favouritism partly due to his name and the fact that opposition had been slow to come forward. Also faces a strong Irish challenge as Elliot and Mullins begin to sort their options out.


Honeysuckle (Mares Novice) - just too short a price when you bear in mind that she may not even be the best Novice Mare in her stable. You still have to believe that Willie Mullins will find something to preserve his perfect record.
 
Min - should go v Altior and prob will. 2m5f at Cheltenham won't see him to best effect
Paisley Park - form this side of the Irish sea doesn't amount to much. Penhill done far more and is more than double the price
Le Richebourg - needs proper good ground which I doubt he will get. Reservations over Cheltenham suiting him
Champ - lazy but basically the same reasons as the original poster
 
charlie said:
Min - should go v Altior and prob will. 2m5f at Cheltenham won't see him to best effect
Paisley Park - form this side of the Irish sea doesn't amount to much. Penhill done far more and is more than double the price
Le Richebourg - needs proper good ground which I doubt he will get. Reservations over Cheltenham suiting him
Champ - lazy but basically the same reasons as the original poster
Click to expand...

You genuinely think min will go against Altior in the qmcc?

Or you really want him to as you've backed monalee who he'd give a Hiding to. ?
 
Honey suckle
She's Decent, but nothing special. She's considerably shorter than she should be. I don't see her being particularly ahead of her stable mate. posh Trish/ lust for glory. Let alone the unexposed ones.

Sir erec.
He's beat gardens of Babylon and tiger tap tap. I like gardens of Babylon as a horse, he finds off the bridle and hes admirable. However I'd be almost certain quel destin would give him a pasting. Let alone what else is set to come.
Sir erec hasn't had to jump under pressure amongst others as of yet. And what he's had to do to date. Is no where near what he's about to encounter.

Champ
His forms nothing special. Once again hes about to run in a race With better opposition than he's faced before. I think a few people may be suprised at the strength of the final line up here. (To the annoyance of there supreme bets going tits up) The ones he's beat before like brewinupastorm, are the least of his worries.



Presenting percy.
He's had an awful prep. Hasn't even ran in open company. Or in a chase at all since the RSA.
The excitement after winning a bang average hurdle race confused me.
As does the assumption that his RSA win is good enough to win this in open company.
 
Last edited:
Scooby91 said:
You genuinely think min will go against Altior in the qmcc?

Or you really want him to as you've backed monalee who he'd give a Hiding to. ?
Click to expand...

That's why I said it. Out of UDS, Footpad and Min, one will go against Altior providing they all make it to the festival safe and sound. As the second best 2 miler Min is the most likely of the three IMO. They shouldn't run scared of one horse anyway. I am not too worried about Min in the Ryanair for the reasons I've stated in the Ryanair thread. I will say the way he settled LTO was noticeable and makes him a more likely winner in my mind than before punchestown, but he's still not one for me in what's shaping up to be an increasingly competitive race.
 
charlie said:
That's why I said it. Out of UDS, Footpad and Min, one will go against Altior providing they all make it to the festival safe and sound. As the second best 2 miler Min is the most likely of the three IMO. They shouldn't run scared of one horse anyway. I am not too worried about Min in the Ryanair for the reasons I've stated in the Ryanair thread. I will say the way he settled LTO was noticeable and makes him a more likely winner in my mind than before punchestown, but he's still not one for me in what's shaping up to be an increasingly competitive race.
Click to expand...

I think theres no chance he goes qmcc. Footpad goes straight there for a start. Sportsbook odds tells you all you need to know.
 
Scooby91 said:
I think theres no chance he goes qmcc. Footpad goes straight there for a start. Sportsbook odds tells you all you need to know.
Click to expand...

What are the sportsbook odds telling us? I see Min and Footpad are both the same price on exchanges and Sportsbook.
 
Champ

Division looks strong imo, and he doesn't look outrageously better than horses at much larger prices

Cyrname - Ryanair

Nice horse, but Ascot chase winners have poor record here and he's not currently at the class to win this imo

Commander of Fleet - Albert Bartlett

I like the horse a lot but I like my AB winners to have a bit more experience and iron about them. I think he's more for the future

OK Corral - 4 Miler

I'm on him at a bigger price, but current one wouldn't appeal, especially with the nagging feeling he's in the wrong race
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
What are the sportsbook odds telling us? I see Min and Footpad are both the same price on exchanges and Sportsbook.
Click to expand...

Standout price min QMCC
Standout price footpad Ryanair

Regardless of that.
Footpad goes straight to the qmcc anyway.
 
Is Apples Jade favourite for the Champion Hurdle?

I can only see the BDA is?

Either way I don't see Apple's Jade winning it.
 
An interesting post, but can't give it my attention, let's stick to the matter at hand, and that is picking winners, not losers.
 
DDS - the JLT is further than his optimum trip imo. Should be running in the Arkle.

Al Dancer - for all he was impressive yesterday, he was racing off 141 and will need to step up again if he is to win the Supreme.

Min - he's the 2nd best 2 miler in the country but I'd be keen to take him on in the Ryanair. The petrol guage will hit empty in the last 100 yards.

Santini - looks like missing his prep due to the flu jab and Hendo sounded worried. If Hendo is worried, I'm worried. I'm turning Delta Work and TOTG into much bigger winners than Santini.
 
Last edited:
ziggym said:
An interesting post, but can't give it my attention, let's stick to the matter at hand, and that is picking winners, not losers.
Click to expand...

To help pick winners it's good to identify the horses that are poorly priced.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
DDS - the JLT is further than his optimum trip imo. Should be running in the Arkle.

Al Dancer - for all he was impressive yesterday, he was racing off 141 and will need to step up again if he is to win the Supreme.

Min - he's the 2nd best 2 miler in the country but I'd be keen to take him on in the Ryanair. The petrol guage will hit empty in the last 100 yards.

Santini - looks like missing his prep due to the flu jab and Hendo sounded worried. If Hendo is worried, I'm worried. I'm turning Delta Work and TOTG into much bigger winners than Santini.
Click to expand...

Same as me but I would want to add Presenting Percy to that list. Hasn’t run in a chase and only won a hurdle this Term
 
I think this is a useful thread as it offers substance to any lingering doubts you have and Faugheen the Machine has pointed out everything I’m fearing and I’ve got all those horses except Al Dancer involved in some tasty looking multiples.
Personally I think Sir Erec and Champ with bomb but also got a gut feeling Altior is going to unseat or fall this time. Altior, Santini, Sir Erec & Champ seem to be involved in the majority of multiple offers online at present with Altior being offered like the curry bill mint chocolates. I really hope I’m completely wrong as I love Altior but do any of you think the QMCC looks so easy for him at present the only thing that will beat him will be himself??
 
Fakir
Ok Corral
Champ
Sir Erec

All far too short now. There is a theme.
 
The King Pimm said:
I think this is a useful thread as it offers substance to any lingering doubts you have and Faugheen the Machine has pointed out everything I’m fearing and I’ve got all those horses except Al Dancer involved in some tasty looking multiples.
Personally I think Sir Erec and Champ with bomb but also got a gut feeling Altior is going to unseat or fall this time. Altior, Santini, Sir Erec & Champ seem to be involved in the majority of multiple offers online at present with Altior being offered like the curry bill mint chocolates. I really hope I’m completely wrong as I love Altior but do any of you think the QMCC looks so easy for him at present the only thing that will beat him will be himself??
Click to expand...

Good point but You could sellotape me to Altior and he’d still win the champion chase. It’ll be interesting next year if they step him up in trip
 
Le Richebourg - too short for a ground dependent horse and hurdles form leaves him a bit to find IMO.
Apples Jade - don’t think Cheltenham brings out the best in her.
Paisley Park - think he’ll run an honest race but at the price think at least one of the Irish will have his measure.
Percy - priced as though he’s already proved himself in graded company whereas in reality he hasn’t been seen.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom