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The four favourites that you're dead against

Scooby91 said:
I think theres no chance he goes qmcc.Footpad goes straight there for a start. Sportsbook odds tells you all you need to know.
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Why no chance? Min would stand a much better chance v Altior in a qmcc than Footpad and if Altior wasn't in the mix you could bet your bollocks to a barndance that Min would go qmcc. Do they run scared of Altior? Based on what they have said then probably yes, if they think the Ryanair is a race Min can win. Even if he goes I don't think he will win. Using his speed to win a slowly run John Durkan on a shattered love gaining with every stride does not tell me over further at Cheltenham up that hill will be up his street at all. He lost to Politilogue over 2m4f having smashed him 15l over 2m. Maybe class will prevail, but I don't think it will.

The cases both for and against Min are straightforward, which is why he clearly divides opinion.
 
charlie said:
Why no chance? Min would stand a much better chance v Altior in a qmcc than Footpad and if Altior wasn't in the mix you could bet your bollocks to a barndance that Min would go qmcc. Do they run scared of Altior? Based on what they have said then probably yes, if they think the Ryanair is a race Min can win. Even if he goes I don't think he will win. Using his speed to win a slowly run John Durkan on a shattered love gaining with every stride does not tell me over further at Cheltenham up that hill will be up his street at all. He lost to Politilogue over 2m4f having smashed him 15l over 2m. Maybe class will prevail, but I don't think it will.

The cases both for and against Min are straightforward, which is why he clearly divides opinion.
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I've never heard that expression in my life but I like it! I'll try and drop it into conversation today:highly_amused:

Agree with your post Charlie.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I've never heard that expression in my life but I like it! I'll try and drop it into conversation today:highly_amused:

Agree with your post Charlie.
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I can't take any credit, its a quote from Bricktop in the film snatch! If you haven't seen it, great film
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
DDS - the JLT is further than his optimum trip imo. Should be running in the Arkle.

Al Dancer - for all he was impressive yesterday, he was racing off 141 and will need to step up again if he is to win the Supreme.

Min - he's the 2nd best 2 miler in the country but I'd be keen to take him on in the Ryanair. The petrol guage will hit empty in the last 100 yards.

Santini - looks like missing his prep due to the flu jab and Hendo sounded worried. If Hendo is worried, I'm worried. I'm turning Delta Work and TOTG into much bigger winners than Santini.
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Pretty much exactly what I think this.
DDS may win though, as he may only have one horse to beat.
 
charlie said:
Why no chance? Min would stand a much better chance v Altior in a qmcc than Footpad and if Altior wasn't in the mix you could bet your bollocks to a barndance that Min would go qmcc. Do they run scared of Altior? Based on what they have said then probably yes, if they think the Ryanair is a race Min can win. Even if he goes I don't think he will win. Using his speed to win a slowly run John Durkan on a shattered love gaining with every stride does not tell me over further at Cheltenham up that hill will be up his street at all. He lost to Politilogue over 2m4f having smashed him 15l over 2m. Maybe class will prevail, but I don't think it will.

The cases both for and against Min are straightforward, which is why he clearly divides opinion.
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Because nothing stands a chance against Altior. They're realists. Min in the Ryanair is easy pickings.


As was vautour.
 
RR's face when he picked up the trophy. :highly_amused:

What an opportunity missed in the GC.
 
Don Cossack ain't nothing like Clan des Obeaux either.
Scooby's grouping has gone haywire.
 
bobbyvalentino said:
How is Min anything like Vautour?
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Min is superior to his rivals in the ryanair . He will take the easy pickings.

Vautour was superior to his rivals in the Ryanair he took the easy pickings.
 
Scooby91 said:
Min is superior to his rivals in the ryanair . He will take the easy pickings.

Vautour was superior to his rivals in the Ryanair he took the easy pickings.
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A comparison between Vautour and Min with a view to the Ryanair, should start and then very quickly finish after deducing both are owned by RR and trained by WPM.
 
Lets make it eight

Presenting Percy -won't have his preferred going this year, maybe N/R ?
Paisley Park - I think his last race has been over rated. Time fractions weren't impressive.
Champ- there's 3 better in the possible line up
Buveur D'air - its a much better race this year than when he beat Melon narrowly.
Le Richbourg - Duc Des Genevries wins this
Santini - over rated on potential improvement
OK Corral- Ballyward should be fav on form
Envoi Allen- W .Mullins will have one better
 
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Supreme: Al Dancer

I thought it was a good performance yesterday but I wasn't blown away. It was hardly the most competitive Betfair hurdle I've seen, and much fewer numbers than normal. No doubt NTD buzzes off his brilliance for the next few weeks and starts comparing him to Frankel. I suspect he plugs on for an honourable third.


Ballymore: Champ

Plenty of holes in this form book - beaten by Vinndication receiving 6lb last year over 2m5f (we know he's not a quick horse), won an egg and spoon handicap by 4l and a falsely run Challow. Add in to the mix that he's a second season novice and the horses he was facing pre-Christmas have more scope for improvement over the year, and the Ballymore competition is starting to firm up, I just can't see him winning. Not sure what does mind.

Ryanair: Min

Min is a crack 2-miler that has unfortunately run into a once in a generation horse. His form over 2m4f is windy enough. Beaten by Politologue (also has average 2m4f form) at Aintree, and the race at Punchestown has shown to be worth nothing with none of the horses he beat having achieved anything so far this season. I've no doubt he gets the trip, but add in the Cheltenham hill, I simply don't think you can say it's his optimum trip. There are a few in the race I see as intermediate specialists which have much better chances.

Gold Cup: Presenting Percy

I don't think any horse has ever won the Gold Cup having not had a chase start during the season. He is certainly the hardest horse to assess that I've come across but I believe he would have to be another generation horse to pull this off. With this preparation and at the prices I just have to take him on.

He's been well campaigned by a shrewd master so translating the form book is incredibly difficult, but I think he's exposed and we've got enough evidence to say his best form (all performances above 156+) have come on soft or heavy. That's not to say he doesn't go on better ground, the aforementioned 156 was on good ground in the Pertemps, I just wonder if he's one that will handle anything, which has led to some apparently exceptional performances last year. On one hand it doesn't appear the strongest Gold Cup of all time so I find it difficult to knock him out the frame, but a Gold Cup tempo putting pressure on his jumping, not quite finding a fluent rhythm, better ground bringing it level for some of his main protagonists - I just can't quite see it.
 
Bigfish said:
Lets make it eight

Presenting Percy
Paisley Park
Champ
Buveur D'air
Le Richbourg
Santini
OK Corral
Envoi Allen
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Any reasoning?

2 x CH winner.
Paisley park has hacked up all season

Evoi allen looks a fair favourite to me
 
Al Dancer - won a handicap and the form is not great
Buveur Dair - has looked beatable this year and giving 7lb to the two top mares will be hard work
Champ - form is not great
Paisley Park - what has it beat? West Approach twice and last year got smashed in a G1 at cheltenham, false fav..
Presenting Percy - will need to be 100% over the fences to beat the rest..

I also predict none of them going off fav on the day...
 
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Santini - Lay of the festival imo
Percy - Close second for lay of the festival, simply cannot have him. I don't believe in CDO much but he's done very little wrong all season.
Champ - Hasn't looked too impressive, and I'm fully on the BOD train
Sir Erec - Very vulnerable I feel

I'd add Paisley Park but that race is nearly as weak as the Arkle and JLT at this stage. He should hack up if he is anything like the horse he appears to be. Think we could have another Spinner on our hands though.
 
Epatante
Buveur d'air
Envoi Allen/Blue Sari
standupandfight
 
Lalor - Only fav because of defections, needs to bounce back (hope he does but I wouldn't be confident)
Santini - Made this 'case' previously about being the wrong fav - (again though, would like him to win too)
Envoi Allen - 3 mile chaser...something will be too good for him on this day - a little bit of sour grapes that he's running perhaps.
Clan Des Obeaux - When he goes fav, lay of the season.:devilish:



'Dead against' is way too strong for how I feel about these but I'll get involved.
 
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