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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

Imo AD steps back up to Ballymore and will set the race up nicely for Envoi. Happy with 33/1 Captain Guinness. He'll improve again for the run and a first time tongue tie maybe. Doubt he'll be good enough to trouble Aba though.
 
Kevloaf said:
Well obviously it's hard to know :p

We form opinions though based on the form we see, and I haven't seen any piece of form in Andy Dufrense's career that marks him down as a Supreme winner.

Abacadabras, Fiddlerontheroof, Edwardstone, Easywork and Master Debonair have all gone better 2m hurdle form for me.....



There is absolutely nbo way I'd back Andy Dufrense at 16/1 he is now - I chanced him at 25/1 before decs, I'll leave it, as he's an alright bet at 25/1 - but if I had to pick the winner of the Supreme, it's not hard in my opinion to overlook Andy Dufrense, basedo n any of him form.

f that's still classed as harsh I don't know what else to say :p
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It's the forgive one run dilemma.
Master Debonair's first run is not great form, and to be fair, neither is the other two runs (although he is clearly improving and looks well)
 
Captain Guinness

trainer Henry De Bromhead said: “It didn't quite work out for him, he was a little bit headstrong but he just seemed to gallop away after that. He ran really well for a horse just having his second run over hurdles. He was probably bound to get found out a little bit and the mistake at the last didn't help but that was a really positive run against a good horse.”

He added: “I would ideally like to get another run into him if we were going to Cheltenham, although I would probably be happy enough to go straight there and take our chance, but we'll discuss that.

I think HdB has a good one.
 
Lobos said:
Imo AD steps back up to Ballymore and will set the race up nicely for Envoi. Happy with 33/1 Captain Guinness. He'll improve again for the run and a first time tongue tie maybe. Doubt he'll be good enough to trouble Aba though.
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Tongue tie ?
Could you hear him chattering the whole way round ?
They'll probably go fast enough in a supreme to help his keenness.
 
That's not harsh at all Kev.... thought saying if you cant beat AD on your second ever racecourse start in your life, you cant win a Supreme was though!
 
Can't Catch Me said:
That's not harsh at all Kev.... thought saying if you cant beat AD on your second ever racecourse start in your life, you cant win a Supreme was though!
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Looking at the bigger picture, do you expect a horse to win a Supreme on his 3rd ever start?


He'd need to be an absolute weapon. We know he isn't an absolute weapon because he's just been beaten?

The Supreme will just come too soon in his career...

He might go on to be really, really, really good...

He might even reverse the form with Andy Dufresne, but I still don't think that'll be good enough.



Well done to the people with the massive exchange prices, good fishing regardless.
 
You can't win a Supreme with the choke out the whole way round. Maybe more experience will help CG settle but Cheltenham will surely light him up even more.
 
Kevloaf said:
Looking at the bigger picture, do you expect a horse to win a Supreme on his 3rd ever start?


He'd need to be an absolute weapon. We know he isn't an absolute weapon because he's just been beaten.


He might go on to be really, really, really good...

He might even reverse the form with Andy Dufresne, but I still don't think that'll be good enough.



Well done to the people with the massive exchange prices, good fishing regardless.
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Very hard to know. But it doesn't look a vintage Supreme. As said before, Aba aside, there isnt a single horse Id really like yet.

I don't think you can say he isnt a weapon because he's just been beaten. Plenty of top notchers get beaten along the way. The third is no mug and if you take AD out of the race, everyone would be waxing lyrical about CG right now.

I do agree this years Supreme could well come too soon, but you never know.
 
archie said:
You can't win a Supreme with the choke out the whole way round. Maybe more experience will help CG settle but Cheltenham will surely light him up even more.
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Thought KD did a pretty good job last year,
Vautour was keen enough too from memory.
Just got to let them get on with it when they're like that, and sit tight and hope they last it out if good enough.

But I do get what you're saying archie, as it's clearly not ideal if it's taking energy up.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Very hard to know. But it doesn't look a vintage Supreme. As said before, Aba aside, there isnt a single horse Id really like yet.

I don't think you can say he isnt a weapon because he's just been beaten. Plenty of top notchers get beaten along the way. The third is no mug and if you take AD out of the race, everyone would be waxing lyrical about CG right now.

I do agree this years Supreme could well come too soon, but you never know.
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I mean he can't be enough of a weapon to win a Supreme... if he was going to be THAT good, (good enough to win a Supreme on 3rd start) I'd want him putting Andy Dufresne away easily despite it being his 2nd start.

Blackbow hasn't exactly just put the form up in lights either?


Every horse has their price of course, and good luck if you're on him.
 
Kevloaf said:
I mean he can't be enough of a weapon to win a Supreme... if he was going to be THAT good, (good enough to win a Supreme on 3rd start) I'd want him putting Andy Dufresne away easily despite it being his 2nd start.

Blackbow hasn't exactly just put the form up in lights either?

He is a ‘future horse’ that is 20/1 to be a ‘now horse’ too.


Every horse has their price of course, and good luck if you're on him.
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Historically you need four lifetime runs minimum to win a Supreme so a run at the DRF would be three, which I would prefer to see, and the horse settled again (as he did on debut) in a bigger field with deeper quality. Would be breaking the runs stats but stats aren’t everything, each horse is different.

I don’t see a star in the race so far, HdB probably feels the same, so it sounds like he is going to have a go. Who’s to argue with him on his stable form and big race selections for his horses this season?
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Historically you need four lifetime runs minimum to win a Supreme so a run at the DRF would be three, which I would prefer to see, and the horse settled again (as he did on debut) in a bigger field with deeper quality. Would be breaking the runs stats but stats aren’t everything, each horse is different.

I don’t see a star in the race so far, HdB probably feels the same, so it sounds like he is going to have a go. Who’s to argue with him on his stable form and big race selections for his horses this season?
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Not arguing with him, go for it HdB...

I just think he won't win it, and a couple of years down the line people may say "how did he not win that Supreme, he's a machine now"....

and I'll say - 'cos it came too soon :highly_amused:





You can all mark up Captain Guinness as much as you like, for me, not beating Andy Dufrense isn't good enough, so I am in no rush to back him.

That does NOT mean he can't win, it just means I don't want to back him. That is allowed, right? :p




It's 1/20 that he doesn't win it.
20/1 that he does.



I'll take my chances ;)
 
Think that was a very good run by Captain Guinness given the circumstances. The nature of the Supreme should help him as well IMO. They had 136 rated Anything Will Do 15Ls back.

I wouldn't say they are miles behind Abacadabras and given that was only CG's 2nd run of his life he is very promising.
 
Kevloaf said:
Not arguing with him, go for it HdB...

I just think he won't win it, and a couple of years down the line people may say "how did he not win that Supreme, he's a machine now"....

and I'll say - 'cos it came too soon :highly_amused:





You can all mark up Captain Guinness as much as you like, for me, not beating Andy Dufrense isn't good enough, so I am in no rush to back him.

That does NOT mean he can't win, it just means I don't want to back him. That is allowed, right? :p




It's 1/20 that he doesn't win it.
20/1 that he does.



I'll take my chances ;)
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Just like Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme, a gallant defeat after looking the winner coming round the bend into the straight.
 
Ruby seemed keen on him for the 2021 Arkle :encouragement:
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Just like Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme, a gallant defeat after looking the winner coming round the bend into the straight.
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What is his pedigree, is he a chaser going forward.

Arkle 2021, for good ol' Henry - I hope he's a big price after doing a Felix Desjy in the Supreme
 
quevega said:
Not a quick time today either.
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Not sure about that q. Racing post didn't have a comparison with standard for either 2ml 1/2f hurdle race. Looking at the maiden Blackbow and Port Stanley went a good clip to the extent they both fell in a hole after the last. The Moscow Flyer was 4.5 seconds faster than the maiden.

From a ratings point looking back to JOB horse in third it looked like 1st and 2nd ran about 150
 
Pendil said:
Not sure about that q. Racing post didn't have a comparison with standard for either 2ml 1/2f hurdle race. Looking at the maiden Blackbow and Port Stanley went a good clip to the extent they both fell in a hole after the last. The Moscow Flyer was 4.5 seconds faster than the maiden.

From a ratings point looking back to JOB horse in third it looked like 1st and 2nd ran about 150
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I Went on past runnings. and times as listed on ATR.
Only slower times were on heavy, and some were faster than today on heavy too.

But course and distance may have changed slightly (rail movements, dodgy startlines and measurements etc) so as I said earlier, it's not an exact science.
Same as comparing races on the same day, without the split screen thing (which is a very useful thing to see sometimes)
 
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