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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

The Moscow Flyer is traditionally an extremely good Festival guide, with recent winners.

Felix Desjy RPR 147
Getabird RPR 153
Any Second Now RPR 142
Min RPR 152
Douvan RPR 149
Vautour RPR 145

Not a bad last six winners.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
The Moscow Flyer is traditionally an extremely good Festival guide, with recent winners.

Felix Desjy RPR 147
Getabird RPR 153
Any Second Now RPR 142
Min RPR 152
Douvan RPR 149
Vautour RPR 145

Not a bad last six winners.
Click to expand...

Gone a bit shit though since Dublin.
Willie can't be arsed anymore.
 
quevega said:
Gone a bit shit though since Dublin.
Willie can't be arsed anymore.
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So the Captain Guinness-Andy Dufresne-Latest Exhibition form thread wont win all three novice races at Chelters? :highly_amused::highly_amused::sorrow:
 
Saxon Warrior said:
So the Captain Guinness-Andy Dufresne-Latest Exhibition form thread wont win all three novice races at Chelters? :highly_amused::highly_amused::sorrow:
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Be happy with one.
 
quevega said:
Be happy with one.
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I really really would be happy with one. Always looking for originally big priced ones that could win races, and not just shorten in price.
One of those three would be excellent particularly Latest Exhibition. Imagine what price he would be if (big if) Captain Guinness and Andy Dufresne had put in monster performances on the first two days.
 
I will put my neck on the line before the RPRs come out and say AD 150 CG 147

That would put AD 1lb ahead of Aba
No axe to grind but happy with my Captain Guinness bet @ 33/1
 
Pendil said:
I will put my neck on the line before the RPRs come out and say AD 150 CG 147

That would put AD 1lb ahead of Aba
No axe to grind but happy with my Captain Guinness bet @ 33/1
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Why 3lb between AD and CG when only 3/4 lengths between them today ??
 
I havent backed AD and am kicking myself a little ive missed the big prices, i though his hurdling was excellent and if he runs here i expect him to go close. Very good be interesting to see the RPR coz it looked well run in that ground.
 
Hurricane fly said:
Happy that AD won as I imagine that it stands his ticket here, but I’m more so happy to get a run for my money rather than expecting it to return anything
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Gordon is quoted in a sporting life article as saying that Andy Dufresne will have no issue staying 2.5 round Cheltenham so time to stop patting myself on the back
 
Kevs Supreme bets

Supreme
Fly Smart 25/1 e/w 2 pts and 33/1 (free bets)
Abacadabras 33/1 e/w (1.5 pts)
Master Debonair 66/1 e/w 0.5 pts
Mister Coffey 66/1 e/w 0.5 pts
*Fiddlerontheroof 40/1 1.25 pts
Edwardstone 33/1 e/w
Chantry House 40/1 e/w
Andy Dufresne 8/1 (any race) 2 pts
Andy Dufresne 25/1 e/w
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Must be missing at least one potential winner :witless:
 
Getting abit late in the day for fly smart would like to see a entry soon
 
If we accept Envoi is very unlikely to show up here, unless there's proper soft ground, this race is so wide open.

Abacadabras sets the standard, but it's hardly an insurmountable standard. His best run is being beaten 1.5Ls by Envoi, loomed up but was beaten comfortably by Envoi. The Envoi Fan Club suggest he idles and is never all out so i guess that also raises a minor question mark on him. He's still got the best form in the book. If you are an RPR man, not many i know are, but i find them useful for part of my analysis, Andy Dufresne has recorded a better RPR than Aba in winning yesterday. Captain Guinness produced a very good 147 in defeat as well. The main English challenger currently is Fiddler and he holds the highest RPR in the field with his Tolworth win. He won easy but in second was Jeremy's Flame and like Abacadabras' win over xmas, the form looks less impressive due to the second.
Edwardstone holds Fiddler and is twice the price? Kingy's record isn't great at the festival but you can't rule him out because of that. He does do a fair bit wrong in his races, which would be a worry. Is he similar to Captain Guinness?

This looks a Summerville Boy year to me, wide open with no standout challenger.
 
Pendil said:
I will put my neck on the line before the RPRs come out and say AD 150 CG 147

That would put AD 1lb ahead of Aba
No axe to grind but happy with my Captain Guinness bet @ 33/1
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Spot on Pendil. The RPRs are out this morning, Andy Dufresne 150 and Captain Guinness 147.

Captain Guinness 16lbs up on his debut run which is also bang on for the improvement HdB has been getting out if his top notchers second time out, A Plus Tard (14lb) Notebook (15lb) for example.

Notebook as a novice, went up another 12lb on his latest, third run of the season.

Roll on Captain Guinness going up another 12lb, next time out, thats plenty good enough to win a Grade 1. May be possible as he still has only ‘two lifetime starts’, not hurdling starts, he must be well ahead of track so early in his racing career.

On RPRs, yesterday’s Grade 2 is up there compared to the Grade 1 at the DRF, where winners of the last eight runnings have achieved:- 147, 150, 150, 152, 151, 149, 155, 145.
Klassical Dream being the last one at 145.

The Grade 2 rating of yesterday’s race compares will with all other previous runnings including Douvan’s win at 149 and Vautour 145.
 
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