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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

Bigfish said:
I fancy Blackbow to win the Supreme Hurdle. He would have won by 5 L from Captain Guinness . I expect a further 8lb improvement in fitness as most of Willies have needed their run. Get on at 33/1.
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You don’t know that and it’s highly doubtful he would have
 
Bigfish said:
I fancy Blackbow to win the Supreme Hurdle. He would have won by 5 L from Captain Guinness . I expect a further 8lb improvement in fitness as most of Willies have needed their run. Get on at 33/1.
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I think CG would have beaten Blackbow that day myself. Blackbow had also had the benefit of a run. 33/1 is definitely fair enough, but think Id rather back CG at 20/1 than BB at 33/1 myself.

Think both both may be slightly too keen and will be outstayed up the hill though.
 
Bigfish said:
I fancy Blackbow to win the Supreme Hurdle. He would have won by 5 L from Captain Guinness . I expect a further 8lb improvement in fitness as most of Willies have needed their run. Get on at 33/1.
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I wouldn’t be too sure of that, CG pinged the last that day and although Blackbow fell, within a few strides CG had put lengths between the 2nd and 3rd.

Also was his first run where Blackbow had a run under his belt and was beaten. P.s you can get 50/1 with cash out if your confident.

I’ve added CG and Blackbow on the back of that race and the hope Blackbow can win comfortably today 50/1 huge and given CG performance form has not a bad look to it.
 
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Great race AD and Guinness , had to watch it again so much to consider.How Guinness is 20/1 over AD 12/1 is purely hype over substance. Pulled most the way round also and beaten a length , no brainer 20/1 yes please.

And Jerry again his commentary was spine tingling.
 
Happy that AD won as I imagine that it stands his ticket here, but I’m more so happy to get a run for my money rather than expecting it to return anything
 
The Beast said:
Great race AD and Guinness , had to watch it again so much to consider.How Guinness is 20/1 over AD 12/1 is purely hype over substance. Pulled most the way round also and beaten a length , no brainer 20/1 yes please.

And Jerry again his commentary was spine tingling.
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I'd say more bone jarring. Almost as bad as when Chapman has a go at it.
 
Captain Guinness is one of those strange cases, where until he jumped in his first hurdle race 4 weeks ago, he had never run anywhere, p2p, bumper, flat etc. For me, that was an excellent racecourse debut to win FTO.

To then race keenly today, in a smaller field Grade 2, and to be upsides the much more experienced favourite (having his 5th race, to CG’s 2nd) at the line, tells me that HdB could have something pretty special on his hands.
 
If you can't beat Andy Dufresne you can't win a Supreme.

Neither good enough :dejection:
 
Kevloaf said:
If you can't beat Andy Dufresne you can't win a Supreme.

Neither good enough :dejection:
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Harsh! Its quite possible Latest Exhibition is a bona fide Grade One stayer and that's the only time AD has been beaten in his life.

Way too early to be writing today's two horses off for me... Id probably have them as second and third favs as we stand myself.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Jockeys seemed to suggest the ground was very testing though.
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Just went on past runnings on soft.
But some soft is softer than soft and some soft is not as soft.

Not an exact science though and it looked well run to the eye on first look.
Proper race for the first two. Like I said earlier.
 
Not backing anyone else in this race, but happy HDB has something of interest in it for my request a bet!
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Harsh! Its quite possible Latest Exhibition is a bona fide Grade One stayer and that's the only time AD has been beaten in his life.

Way too early to be writing today's two horses off for me... Id probably have them as second and third favs as we stand myself.
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Is it harsh?


I don't think Andy Dufrense's form is the best 2m form we've seen.

People will mark up Andy Dufrense because of Latest Exhibition - a horse who may end up a 3 miler this season.... being beaten over 2m4f by a 3 mile hurdler isn't great form. It doesn't hurt his chances but it's the most over rated 2nd I've seen this season so far...


Closely followed by Guinness today as the most over rated 2nd :devilish:
 
Elliott said: "He got beat by a good horse of Paul Nolan's the last day in Navan, where he probably outstayed us, but that was more like it today.

"Mark said the inside track was tight enough for him here over two miles. He took a bit of organising around the last bend, but when he straightened up he jumped the last well."

"He galloped to the line and has won over two and a half. I'm not sure what the plans are, and I'll have to talk to the lads," the Cullentra handler added.

"I still don't think two and half is a problem to him - he stays well. The way he moves he'll probably be better on better ground."

Henry De Bromhead was delighted with the performance of the runner-up, who was making just his second career start after making an impressive debut at Navan four weeks ago.

De Bromhead said: "He got a bit strong (keen), but galloped away and jumped well. I'm delighted for a horse only having his second run.

"He was quite free and was entitled to get found out a little bit - and it didn't help that he got in a bit close to the last. Obviously Andy Dufresne is a very good horse, so we're delighted with the run.

"He's in the Grade One at the Dublin Racing Festival. It may be a bit close, but we'll see how he is."
 
I am not saying that Captain Guinness is going to win the Supreme, what I am noting is that his complete lack of any racing at all, leading onto a close 2nd in a Grade 2 four weeks later for a trainer that isn’t hard on his inexperienced horses is massively impressive to me.

I will be very interested in his career progression through this season and next season, and I would hope that this horse could grow into something special for HdB.

If HdB is already looking at the Grade 1 at the DRF that tells me that he rates the horse too, and he may be willing to give him a full go through Grade 1’s this year.
 
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Kevloaf said:
Is it harsh?


I don't think Andy Dufrense's form is the best 2m form we've seen.

People will mark up Andy Dufrense because of Latest Exhibition - a horse who may end up a 3 miler this season.... being beaten over 2m4f by a 3 mile hurdler isn't great form. It doesn't hurt his chances but it's the most over rated 2nd I've seen this season so far...


Closely followed by Guinness today as the most over rated 2nd :devilish:
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Just think its very hard to know at this stage. Lots of different formlines and hard to know which are the strongest yet.

But I think those two today look nice types. Obviously Aba is a worthy fav... but him aside who would you have ahead of them for the Supreme? Fiddlerontheroof I could accept, even though he's not for me.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Just think its very hard to know at this stage. Lots of different formlines and hard to know which are the strongest yet.

But I think those two today look nice types. Obviously Aba is a worthy fav... but him aside who would you have ahead of them for the Supreme? Fiddlerontheroof I could accept, even though he's not for me.
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Well obviously it's hard to know :p

We form opinions though based on the form we see, and I haven't seen any piece of form in Andy Dufrense's career that marks him down as a Supreme winner.

Abacadabras, Fiddlerontheroof, Edwardstone, Easywork and Master Debonair have all gone better 2m hurdle form for me.....



There is absolutely nbo way I'd back Andy Dufrense at 16/1 he is now - I chanced him at 25/1 before decs, I'll leave it, as he's an alright bet at 25/1 - but if I had to pick the winner of the Supreme, it's not hard in my opinion to overlook Andy Dufrense, basedo n any of him form.

f that's still classed as harsh I don't know what else to say :p
 
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