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Supreme Novices 2017

ComplyOrDie said:
More 4 year olds have won the race than 8+ year olds in history, which would immediately discount long time pre-race favourite, Moon Racer.

That said, I fancy neither, but just thought I'd point it out.

Melon was indeed as impressive as he could be, that time was irrelevant, the race was run steady by some average horse and Melon done it on the bridle. Plenty more to come from him, the size of him though, well, chaser in the making.
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I was making a point that CP is a 4yo, and they don't usually win supremes. 1999 is the last 4yo, although they don't tend to run in this race that often. As for Binocular, well he didn't win. Bad ride from McCoy or ground doesn't go down in the record books.
CP could be a special horse is a very average supreme. time will tell.
 
When are the entries out for the Supreme?

Still hoping Senewalk will be entered - in a lot of my early season multiples!

I know he's had his wind op but nothing definitive has been said that he has been put away until next season.
 
I think you're struggling with that one Vautour. There is more chance of Jenkins turning up and I think the odds on that happening are getting bigger by the day.
 
Melon and Charli Parcs have both been trimmed again today, with Melon clear favourite now.
 
Melon will keep getting shorter now. There are a LOT that will follow Mullins blindly which is fair enough.

I think if you took the price now, it'd be double the price you can get on the day! Whether his chance is value at the price now or not is open to debate.

Who is already on? :devilish:
 
doctorwu said:
I was making a point that CP is a 4yo, and they don't usually win supremes. 1999 is the last 4yo, although they don't tend to run in this race that often. As for Binocular, well he didn't win. Bad ride from McCoy or ground doesn't go down in the record books.
CP could be a special horse is a very average supreme. time will tell.
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No they I think you have hit the nail on the head. 4 year olds don't win because they don't run in it. Only Torphichen and Marsh Warbler have run in the race since Binocular in 2008.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
*puts hand in air :o:encouragement:
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:encouragement:

Just been having a think about this race while I was out in the rain and thought about the 3 horses I think I would back, if it was the day of the race... the 3 horses that REALLY excite me are Charli Parcs, Neon Wolf and Finian's Oscar! I think all 3 of them could be fantastic and if I knew any were actually turning up I would probably feel quite strongly. (I have backed them all anyway, but you know what I mean).

I think with Melon, A N Other Mullins horse and Moon racer.... would make this one of the best races of the festival and would be STACKED with future winners.

I keep hearing that it is a weak supreme, (and I have probably said that myself) but just had a change of heart tonight. Of course Neon and Finian's might clash in the Neptune which will be good in its own right, or neither could turn up and I've wasted a minute of everyones time reading about nothing.

In short, my 1-2-3 is Neon Wolf, Charli Parcs, Finian's Oscar....... thank goodness for the NRNB in this race :highly_amused:
 
I was at Leopardstown yesterday, what impressed me most about Melon was that he can jump.

A very nice trait in a hurdler.
 
Vanilla said:
I was at Leopardstown yesterday, what impressed me most about Melon was that he can jump.

A very nice trait in a hurdler.
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useful :) best of the Irish ?
 
How can Melon be a general 4/1 fav for the Supreme on the back of winning a poor maiden at 4/9 ! Absolute Madness, not every horse Mullins gets is going to be the next greatest thing! It's just hype!

Beyond Conceit won a better maiden at Newbury by 10 lengths the other week, is a class 2 flat performer, trained by a master but is rightly a 33/1 chance - people need to get a grip.

Only good thing about is there must be value elsewhere.
 
Good point re value Cashew King, though you might have to wait until the day when the hotpot commands 40-50% of the market and they have to bet to 110% and not the overounds that exist in ante post markets....
 
Can't fault Melon's performance myself - very good and gave the impression of a very good horse in the making. If the run had been November time he'd be right up there on my list but wouldn't touch him at the price though nor if he was to go straight into the Supreme from a maiden hurdle.

If he was to get another run into him before March and win as well second time out i'd probably side with him but I don't really feel like I can win with the horse now or at least with the antepost market. Not done anywhere near enough to justify his odds right now but then if he runs again and wins he'll be circa 2/1 - 15/8 so the value will never be there.

On the day it may be different though!
 
ryanh97 said:
http://www.racingpost.com/news/hors...er/2238359/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

Melon the biggest market mover apparently
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I actually feel annoyed about this story. The bookies are coming out and reporting this huge amount they'll stand to lose? Give me a break! This is publicity, it is getting punters to believe the hype around a horse and I am half tempted to start laying Melon myself because his price is going to be too short. Even if he wins easier than Douvan did... this is just the bookies making us all look like idiots!

Anyone backing Melon at the price he is now (unless they have the SOLE INTENTION of laying it off on the day) should take a long and hard look at whether gambling is for them!

:mad:
 
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Completely agree Kev, its just the bookies getting punters to stick some more in making 3/1 look a value bet. It might look a value bet if hes evens on the day and wins by 5 lengths but to me I don't see that happening
 
Kevloaf said:
I actually feel annoyed about this story. The bookies are coming out and reporting this huge amount they'll stand to lose? Give me a break! This is publicity, it is getting punters to believe the hype around a horse and I am half tempted to start laying Melon myself because his price is going to be too short. Even if he wins easier than Douvan did... this is just the bookies making us all look like idiots!

Anyone backing Melon at the price he is now (unless they have the SOLE INTENTION of laying it off on the day) should take a long and hard look at whether gambling is for them!

:mad:
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I concur - I have a small slip with Melon at 12s in case it was the hype horse. Won't be touching it again (learnt my lesson with Min last year when I backed him again while queuing to put my cover bet on Altoir)

Bookies love stuff like this - "Oh we got smashed on Leicester last year - it could happen again!" when really it wasn't the 1000/1 shots in August they were promoting, it was the fact that they were too slow to contract their price post Christmas
 
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