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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

FaugheenTheMachine said:
Paul Kealy put Al Dancer up for the Supreme (and the Betfair) in his weekender column Rhinestone, that’s probably who your thinking of. Segal put Al Dancer and Mister Fisher up today as mentioned and gave Elixir De Nutz a good mention as well, basically like the rest of us he’s not really sure!
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Without wishing to be pedantic I recall a lot of chat on this thread about Segal’s poor tipping record in the Supreme after he put Al Dancer up. Just had a quick look on Twitter and looks like he put him up in the Weedender in December:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RPWeekender/status/1076181759044268033

Pretty sure he was 20s at the time, but strange to put him up again now at a reduced price without running since, although Annamix has flopped since then of course
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Without wishing to be pedantic I recall a lot of chat on this thread about Segal’s poor tipping record in the Supreme after he put Al Dancer up. Just had a quick look on Twitter and looks like he put him up in the Weedender in December:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RPWeekender/status/1076181759044268033

Pretty sure he was 20s at the time, but strange to put him up again now at a reduced price without running since, although Annamix has flopped since then of course
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That does seem odd. To be honest I have no idea what he’s playing at half the time. It’s a complete mystery to me how Tom Segal still has his job tipping for the Racing Post. From 2013 – 2018 he is -557.50 down and I can’t think of many jobs where you can consistently underperform and still keep your position. In my opinion every tipster/journalist selecting horses in the Racing Post should have their current profit/loss entered next to their name. Surely the game will soon be up for Tom won’t it? I’ve noticed Tom shuns any form of social media and it’s not hard to see why. He would be mercilessly trolled for being an unprofitable and quite frankly, poor tipster.
 
charlie said:
That does seem odd. To be honest I have no idea what he’s playing at half the time. It’s a complete mystery to me how Tom Segal still has his job tipping for the Racing Post. From 2013 – 2018 he is -557.50 down and I can’t think of many jobs where you can consistently underperform and still keep your position. In my opinion every tipster/journalist selecting horses in the Racing Post should have their current profit/loss entered next to their name. Surely the game will soon be up for Tom won’t it? I’ve noticed Tom shuns any form of social media and it’s not hard to see why. He would be mercilessly trolled for being an unprofitable and quite frankly, poor tipster.
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Is he really that far down? I know it’s only anecdotal, but still recall him having a max bet a year in advance on Mite Bite to win the King George at 33/1, which he then did.

I personally find Birch to be the worst tipster. He doesn’t believe in antepost, and has this arrogant taking of always focusing on some god awful handicap at Taunton over races at a graded race. He just comes across as up himself. However, based on his recent article for the RP, things clearly are not going well for him! The article was a cry for help. He even put in the £ value of his single bet losses, of which there had been many that weekend!
 
TCH29 said:
Is he really that far down? I know it’s only anecdotal, but still recall him having a max bet a year in advance on Mite Bite to win the King George at 33/1, which he then did.

I personally find Birch to be the worst tipster. He doesn’t believe in antepost, and has this arrogant taking of always focusing on some god awful handicap at Taunton over races at a graded race. He just comes across as up himself. However, based on his recent article for the RP, things clearly are not going well for him! The article was a cry for help. He even put in the £ value of his single bet losses, of which there had been many that weekend!
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A lot of the sporting life and ATR tipsters do it, I can't see why the RP should be any different. Them ignoring the matter is just fueling the idiot twitter conspirators
 
That P/L would be using the inflated odds he quotes too, not the much reduced ones available to punters. That would make his record look even worse!
 
TCH29 said:
Is he really that far down? I know it’s only anecdotal, but still recall him having a max bet a year in advance on Mite Bite to win the King George at 33/1, which he then did.

I personally find Birch to be the worst tipster. He doesn’t believe in antepost, and has this arrogant taking of always focusing on some god awful handicap at Taunton over races at a graded race. He just comes across as up himself. However, based on his recent article for the RP, things clearly are not going well for him! The article was a cry for help. He even put in the £ value of his single bet losses, of which there had been many that weekend!
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Yes. Tom Segals numbers over the last 6 years.

Profit for 2013: 542.50
Profit for 2014: 402.00
Profit for 2015: -1296.50
Profit for 2016: 793.30
Profit for 2017: -107.70
Profit for 2018: -891.10
 
Cashed out my Thomas Darby Ballymore bet... sounds like he's coming here. Hard horse to weigh up imo but still think he's a fair enough price at 25/1 if on a going day.

Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet are in line to run for the yard on March 12, and have been performing well against other hopefuls for the 2m contest.

Earlier in the season Thomas Darby defeated Elixir De Nutz – since a winner of the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle – at Cheltenham, and then finished a head second to Didtheyleaveuoutto at Ascot.

Following a third-placed effort behind Mister Fisher at Kempton, Thomas Darby, owned by Diana Whateley, took advantage of a confidence booster at Taunton, winning easily last weekend.

Next stop will be Cheltenham for the six-year-old, despite an entry in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on February 9.

Murphy said on Monday: "He'll head straight there. I don't think he's done anything wrong. He doesn't want soft ground and it was soft when he was beaten at Kempton.

"Mister Fisher has franked that form and we had to give him 5lb. I think a fast-run two miles will suit Thomas Darby well."

While Thomas Darby is a general 25-1 chance for the Supreme, stablemate Itchy Feet can be backed at 40-1 with various firms and Murphy feels those odds underestimate the Kate and Andrew Brooks-owned novice hurdler.

Murphy said: "Itchy Feet won a Listed race at Kempton and then gave Elixir De Nutz a run for his money on his last start and had to give him 5lb.

"I think he's a big price and he'll have a prep run before Cheltenham. He's a 40-1 shot but he'll definitely outrun his odds."
 
Every year people get all excited about betfair hurdle winners for this race. They always go off short and they always find one or two that are too good. Al Dancer would not be for me for that reason. Can anyone tell me the last horse to win this race that prepped in a hcp?
 
billymag said:
Every year people get all excited about betfair hurdle winners for this race. They always go off short and they always find one or two that are too good. Al Dancer would not be for me for that reason. Can anyone tell me the last horse to win this race that prepped in a hcp?
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A lot have been very close though
 
billymag said:
Every year people get all excited about betfair hurdle winners for this race. They always go off short and they always find one or two that are too good. Al Dancer would not be for me for that reason. Can anyone tell me the last horse to win this race that prepped in a hcp?
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Not a specific answer to your question, but 2 horses, My Tent Or Yours & Kalashnikov both ran stormers in the Supreme on the back of winning the Betfair Hurdle, though I am with you, not a race I tend to look out for the winner of this race for.
 
MTOY was 15/8F, Kalashnikov was 5/1, BallyAndy 3/1F, Splash of Ginge 20/1, Recession Proof 12/1, Get me out of here 4/1. All won Betfair Hurdle then were turned over, horses that ran in a handicap then run here are a big no for me. Genuinely dont know the answer but in recent times wonder who was the last horse to win the Supreme having run in a hcp.
 
billymag said:
MTOY was 15/8F, Kalashnikov was 5/1, BallyAndy 3/1F, Splash of Ginge 20/1, Recession Proof 12/1, Get me out of here 4/1. All won Betfair Hurdle then were turned over, horses that ran in a handicap then run here are a big no for me. Genuinely dont know the answer but in recent times wonder who was the last horse to win the Supreme having run in a hcp.
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Who's your pick at the moment? Angels Breath?

Where do you expect he will run next ?
 
Ive backed a few that arent going to get near the race unfortunately ( sizing pottsie, Quick Grabham, Rathhill)

But the three im left with that i like are Angels Breath (if hes as good as they vibes he will take this), Klassical Dream and Vison D'honneur (unfortunately didnt get fancy prices like some of on here, but hes likely to be Gordons number one so he will be a good deal shorter on the day)

Sorry also backed Eptante 1pt for this and she is unlikely to go here
 
Outlaw said:
Apologies for asking again but got no response and surprised someone hasn't an opinion/heard anything , Rouge Vif now i know he shouldn't be anywhere near the head of this market before anyone says so. However i can't even see him priced up anywhere have they said there keeping him low key or something? I see he's entered up Friday in a race he could potentially win so find it surprising he's not priced up anywhere?
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Did you get something sorted out , Outlaw , only i just saw Rouge vif on Sky bet @ 25-1. ??.
 
billymag said:
Ive backed a few that arent going to get near the race unfortunately ( sizing pottsie, Quick Grabham, Rathhill)

But the three im left with that i like are Angels Breath (if hes as good as they vibes he will take this), Klassical Dream and Vison D'honneur (unfortunately didnt get fancy prices like some of on here, but hes likely to be Gordons number one so he will be a good deal shorter on the day)

Sorry also backed Eptante 1pt for this and she is unlikely to go here
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Possibly one for the mares novice thread, but what are the chances of JP rocking up with Eptante + Sancta Simona in the Mares novice i wonder..
 
charlie said:
Yes. Tom Segals numbers over the last 6 years.

Profit for 2013: 542.50
Profit for 2014: 402.00
Profit for 2015: -1296.50
Profit for 2016: 793.30
Profit for 2017: -107.70
Profit for 2018: -891.10
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Cheers, Charlie. That’s really interesting, but do you mind me asking where that data is from?? I’m sure you haven’t, but you (or someone else) could have just made that up without providing a source.

Makes the bloke a bit of a fraudster, mind.
 
BigChaang said:
Did you get something sorted out , Outlaw , only i just saw Rouge vif on Sky bet @ 25-1. ??.
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I weakened and didn't wait till Thursday to ask , my logic being ill get skybet to price up then the firms that are not NRNB can price him up in a day or two bigger hopefully. Not yet played as of yet but see what happens over the next 48 hours.
 
So I sat down with the old notebook last night to start my proper shortlists as it's not far away now! I've had a few one point darts thus far, but I'm into the main bank now, where I try to have four points per race, where I try to find the absolute winner

I was trying to break down my thoughts

Angels Breath - could be confirmation bias as I missed bi prices, but I'm prepared to be wrong, but I'm anti based on a one run with four hurdles

Al Dancer - Betfair hurdle wouldn't be the best marker for winner, but have been some places, but he's not big enough to really entice me each way

Elixir De Nutz - Tolworth a good recent record of winners here - but that wouldn't have been the most amazing form I've ever seen. Seems a sturdy and honest horse though, and you'd definitely be invested to the end of the race with him I reckon

VDH/Klassical Dream - KD beat VDH, even accounting for improvement surely KD must be the wrong price at 4 points bigger? Trainer and potential jockey appeal with track record here too

Aramon - has looked very good at times - nagging feeling that he's benefitted from the ground, one of those summer horses who's overachieved? Unfair? Maybe

So I've netted down to Klassical Dream and Elixir De Nutz I think. Leaning to EDN, but tempted to split stakes
 
Maybe I'm mad but I agree with you however I get the feeling that Mullins number 1 could be Tornado Flyer for this race and Carefully Selected or Dorrells Pierji split between Ballymore and Albert Bartlett. If you look at the horse Take Revenge, Dorrells beat him by 26 L.
and Tornado Flyer beat him by 3 L. giving 3lb so on that piece of form Dorrells is 20 L. ahead so would make sense for Dorrells for the Ballymore. Sorry I have to go there's a couple of men with white coats at the door.
 
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